| 1. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2014
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 384:9947, s. 957-979
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.
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| 2. |
- Fuks, Kateryna B., et al.
(författare)
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Arterial blood pressure and long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution : an analysis in the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE)
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Health Perspectives. - : National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS). - 0091-6765 .- 1552-9924. ; 122:9, s. 896-905
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Long-term exposure to air pollution is hypothesized to elevate arterial blood pressure (BP). The existing evidence is scarce and country-specific. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the cross-sectional association of long-term traffic-related air pollution with BP and prevalent hypertension in European populations. METHODS: Fifteen population-based cohorts, participating in the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE), were analysed. Residential exposure to particulate matter and nitrogen oxides was modelled with land use regression using a uniform protocol. Traffic exposure was assessed with traffic indicator variables. We analysed systolic and diastolic BP in participants medicated and non-medicated with BP lowering medication (BPLM) separately, adjusting for personal and area-level risk factors and environmental noise. Prevalent hypertension was defined as ≥ 140 mmHg systolic, or ≥ 90 mmHg diastolic BP, or intake of BPLM. We combined cohort-specific results using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: In the main meta-analysis of 113,926 participants, traffic load on major roads within 100 m of the residence was associated with increased systolic and diastolic BP in non-medicated participants (0.35 mmHg [95% CI: 0.02-0.68] and 0.22 mmHg [95% CI: 0.04-0.40] per 4,000,000 vehicles × m/day, respectively). The estimated odds ratio for prevalent hypertension was 1.05 [95% CI: 0.99-1.11] per 4,000,000 vehicles × m/day. Modelled air pollutants and BP were not clearly associated. CONCLUSIONS: In this first comprehensive meta-analysis of European population-based cohorts we observed a weak positive association of high residential traffic exposure with BP in non-medicated participants, and an elevated OR for prevalent hypertension. The relationship of modelled air pollutants with BP was inconsistent.
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| 3. |
- Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole, et al.
(författare)
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Air pollution and lung cancer incidence in 17 European cohorts : prospective analyses from the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE)
- 2013
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Ingår i: The Lancet Oncology. - 1470-2045 .- 1474-5488. ; 14:9, s. 813-822
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Ambient air pollution is suspected to cause lung cancer. We aimed to assess the association between long-term exposure to ambient air pollution and lung cancer incidence in European populations.METHODS: This prospective analysis of data obtained by the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects used data from 17 cohort studies based in nine European countries. Baseline addresses were geocoded and we assessed air pollution by land-use regression models for particulate matter (PM) with diameter of less than 10 μm (PM10), less than 2·5 μm (PM2·5), and between 2·5 and 10 μm (PMcoarse), soot (PM2·5absorbance), nitrogen oxides, and two traffic indicators. We used Cox regression models with adjustment for potential confounders for cohort-specific analyses and random effects models for meta-analyses.FINDINGS: The 312 944 cohort members contributed 4 013 131 person-years at risk. During follow-up (mean 12·8 years), 2095 incident lung cancer cases were diagnosed. The meta-analyses showed a statistically significant association between risk for lung cancer and PM10 (hazard ratio [HR] 1·22 [95% CI 1·03-1·45] per 10 μg/m(3)). For PM2·5 the HR was 1·18 (0·96-1·46) per 5 μg/m(3). The same increments of PM10 and PM2·5 were associated with HRs for adenocarcinomas of the lung of 1·51 (1·10-2·08) and 1·55 (1·05-2·29), respectively. An increase in road traffic of 4000 vehicle-km per day within 100 m of the residence was associated with an HR for lung cancer of 1·09 (0·99-1·21). The results showed no association between lung cancer and nitrogen oxides concentration (HR 1·01 [0·95-1·07] per 20 μg/m(3)) or traffic intensity on the nearest street (HR 1·00 [0·97-1·04] per 5000 vehicles per day).INTERPRETATION: Particulate matter air pollution contributes to lung cancer incidence in Europe.FUNDING: European Community's Seventh Framework Programme.
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| 4. |
- Wang, Meng, et al.
(författare)
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Performance of multi-city land use regression models for nitrogen dioxide and fine particles
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Health Perspectives. - : Public Health Services, US Dept of Health and Human Services. - 0091-6765 .- 1552-9924. ; 122:8, s. 843-849
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Land use regression (LUR) models have been developed mostly to explain intraurban variations in air pollution based on often small local monitoring campaigns. Transferability of LUR models from city to city has been investigated, but little is known about the performance of models based on large numbers of monitoring sites covering a large area.OBJECTIVES: We aimed to develop European and regional LUR models and to examine their transferability to areas not used for model development.METHODS: We evaluated LUR models for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM; PM2.5, PM2.5 absorbance) by combining standardized measurement data from 17 (PM) and 23 (NO2) ESCAPE (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects) study areas across 14 European countries for PM and NO2. Models were evaluated with cross-validation (CV) and hold-out validation (HV). We investigated the transferability of the models by successively excluding each study area from model building.RESULTS: The European model explained 56% of the concentration variability across all sites for NO2, 86% for PM2.5, and 70% for PM2.5 absorbance. The HV R2s were only slightly lower than the model R2 (NO2, 54%; PM2.5, 80%; PM2.5 absorbance, 70%). The European NO2, PM2.5, and PM2.5 absorbance models explained a median of 59%, 48%, and 70% of within-area variability in individual areas. The transferred models predicted a modest-to-large fraction of variability in areas that were excluded from model building (median R2: NO2, 59%; PM2.5, 42%; PM2.5 absorbance, 67%).CONCLUSIONS: Using a large data set from 23 European study areas, we were able to develop LUR models for NO2 and PM metrics that predicted measurements made at independent sites and areas reasonably well. This finding is useful for assessing exposure in health studies conducted in areas where no measurements were conducted.
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| 5. |
- Cai, Yutong, et al.
(författare)
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Cross-sectional associations between air pollution and chronic bronchitis : an ESCAPE meta-analysis across five cohorts
- 2014
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Ingår i: Thorax. - : BMJ. - 0040-6376 .- 1468-3296. ; 69:11, s. 1005-1014
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: This study aimed to assess associations of outdoor air pollution on prevalence of chronic bronchitis symptoms in adults in five cohort studies (Asthma-E3N, ECRHS, NSHD, SALIA, SAPALDIA) participating in the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE) project.METHODS: Annual average particulate matter (PM10, PM2.5, PMabsorbance, PMcoarse), NO2, nitrogen oxides (NOx) and road traffic measures modelled from ESCAPE measurement campaigns 2008-2011 were assigned to home address at most recent assessments (1998-2011). Symptoms examined were chronic bronchitis (cough and phlegm for ≥3 months of the year for ≥2 years), chronic cough (with/without phlegm) and chronic phlegm (with/without cough). Cohort-specific cross-sectional multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted using common confounder sets (age, sex, smoking, interview season, education), followed by meta-analysis.RESULTS: 15 279 and 10 537 participants respectively were included in the main NO2 and PM analyses at assessments in 1998-2011. Overall, there were no statistically significant associations with any air pollutant or traffic exposure. Sensitivity analyses including in asthmatics only, females only or using back-extrapolated NO2 and PM10 for assessments in 1985-2002 (ECRHS, NSHD, SALIA, SAPALDIA) did not alter conclusions. In never-smokers, all associations were positive, but reached statistical significance only for chronic phlegm with PMcoarse OR 1.31 (1.05 to 1.64) per 5 µg/m(3) increase and PM10 with similar effect size. Sensitivity analyses of older cohorts showed increased risk of chronic cough with PM2.5abs (black carbon) exposures.CONCLUSIONS: Results do not show consistent associations between chronic bronchitis symptoms and current traffic-related air pollution in adult European populations.
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| 6. |
- de Hoogh, Kees, et al.
(författare)
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Comparing land use regression and dispersion modelling to assess residential exposure to ambient air pollution for epidemiological studies
- 2014
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Ingår i: Environment International. - : Elsevier BV. - 0160-4120 .- 1873-6750. ; 73, s. 382-392
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Land-use regression (LUR) and dispersion models (DM) are commonly used for estimating individual air pollution exposure in population studies. Few comparisons have however been made of the performance of these methods. Objectives: Within the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE) we explored the differences between LUR and DM estimates for NO2, PM10 and PM2.5. Methods: The ESCAPE study developed LUR models for outdoor air pollution levels based on a harmonised monitoring campaign. In thirteen ESCAPE study areas we further applied dispersion models. We compared LUR and DM estimates at the residential addresses of participants in 13 cohorts for NO2; 7 for PM10 and 4 for PM2.5. Additionally, we compared the DM estimates with measured concentrations at the 20-40 ESCAPE monitoring sites in each area. Results: The median Pearson R (range) correlation coefficients between LUR and DM estimates for the annual average concentrations of NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 were 0.75 (0.19-0.89), 0.39 (0.23-0.66) and 0.29 (0.22-0.81) for 112,971 (13 study areas), 69,591 (7) and 28,519(4) addresses respectively. The median Pearson R correlation coefficients (range) between DM estimates and ESCAPE measurements were of 0.74(0.09-0.86) for NO2; 0.58 (0.36-0.88) for PM10 and 0.58 (0.39-0.66) for PM2.5. Conclusions: LUR and dispersion model estimates correlated on average well for NO2 but only moderately for PM10 and PM2.5, with large variability across areas. DM predicted a moderate to large proportion of the measured variation for NO2 but less for PM10 and PM2.5.
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| 7. |
- Dimakopoulou, Konstantina, et al.
(författare)
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Air Pollution and Nonmalignant Respiratory Mortality in 16 Cohorts within the ESCAPE Project
- 2014
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Ingår i: American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine. - : American Thoracic Society. - 1073-449X .- 1535-4970. ; 189:6, s. 684-696
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Rationale: Prospective cohort studies have shown that chronic exposure to particulate matter and traffic-related air pollution is associated with reduced survival. However, the effects on nonmalignant respiratory mortality are less studied, and the data reported are less consistent. Objectives: We have investigated the relationship of long-term exposure to air pollution and nonmalignant respiratory mortality in 16 cohorts with individual level data within the multicenter European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE). Methods: Data from 16 ongoing cohort studies from Europe were used. The total number of subjects was 307,553. There were 1,559 respiratory deaths during follow-up. Measurements and Main Results: Air pollution exposure was estimated by land use regression models at the baseline residential addresses of study participants and traffic-proximity variables were derived from geographical databases following a standardized procedure within, the ESCAPE study. Cohort-specific hazard ratios obtained by Cox proportional hazard models from standardized individual cohort analyses were combined using metaanalyses. We found no significant associations between air pollution exposure and nonmalignant respiratory mortality. Most hazard ratios were slightly below unity, with the exception of the traffic-proximity indicators. Conclusions: In this study of 16 cohorts, there was no-association between air pollution exposure and nonmalignant respiratory mortality.
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| 8. |
- Schikowski, Tamara, et al.
(författare)
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Association of ambient air pollution with the prevalence and incidence of COPD
- 2014
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Ingår i: European Respiratory Journal. - : European Respiratory Society. - 0903-1936 .- 1399-3003. ; 44:3, s. 614-626
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The role of air pollution in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains uncertain.The aim was to assess the impact of chronic exposure to air pollution on COPD in four cohorts using the standardised ESCAPE exposure estimates. Annual average particulate matter (PM), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and road traffic exposure were assigned to home addresses using land-use regression models. COPD was defined by NHANES reference equation (forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)/forced vital capacity (FVC) less than the lower limit of normal) and the Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease criterion (FEV1/FVC <0.70) and categorised by severity in non-asthmatics.We included 6550 subjects with assigned NOx and 3692 with PM measures. COPD was not associated with NO2 or PM10 in any individual cohort. In meta-analyses only NO2, NOx, PM10 and the traffic indicators were positively, although not significantly, associated with COPD. The only statistically significant associations were seen in females (COPD prevalence using GOLD: OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.11-2.23; and incidence: OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.21-2.68).None of the principal results were statistically significant, the weak positive associations of exposure with COPD and the significant subgroup findings need to be evaluated in further well standardised cohorts followed up for longer time, and with time-matched exposure assignments.
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