| 1. |
- Mooij, Wolf M., et al.
(författare)
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Modeling water quality in the Anthropocene : directions for the next-generation aquatic ecosystem models
- 2019
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Ingår i: Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability. - : Elsevier BV. - 1877-3435 .- 1877-3443. ; 36, s. 85-95
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Everything changes and nothing stands still (Heraclitus). Here we review three major improvements to freshwater aquatic ecosystem models - and ecological models in general - as water quality scenario analysis tools towards a sustainable future. To tackle the rapid and deeply connected dynamics characteristic of the Anthropocene, we argue for the inclusion of eco-evolutionary, novel ecosystem and social-ecological dynamics. These dynamics arise from adaptive responses in organisms and ecosystems to global environmental change and act at different integration levels and different time scales. We provide reasons and means to incorporate each improvement into aquatic ecosystem models. Throughout this study we refer to Lake Victoria as a microcosm of the evolving novel social-ecological systems of the Anthropocene. The Lake Victoria case clearly shows how interlinked eco-evolutionary, novel ecosystem and social-ecological dynamics are, and demonstrates the need for transdisciplinary research approaches towards global sustainability.
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| 2. |
- Poen, Marjolein J, et al.
(författare)
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Lack of virological and serological evidence for continued circulation of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N8 virus in wild birds in the Netherlands, 14 November 2014 to 31 January 2016.
- 2016
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Ingår i: Eurosurveillance. - 1025-496X .- 1560-7917. ; 21:38, s. 11-21
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2014, H5N8 clade 2.3.4.4 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of the A/Goose/Guangdong/1/1996 lineage emerged in poultry and wild birds in Asia, Europe and North America. Here, wild birds were extensively investigated in the Netherlands for HPAI H5N8 virus (real-time polymerase chain reaction targeting the matrix and H5 gene) and antibody detection (haemagglutination inhibition and virus neutralisation assays) before, during and after the first virus detection in Europe in late 2014. Between 21 February 2015 and 31 January 2016, 7,337 bird samples were tested for the virus. One HPAI H5N8 virus-infected Eurasian wigeon (Anas penelope) sampled on 25 February 2015 was detected. Serological assays were performed on 1,443 samples, including 149 collected between 2007 and 2013, 945 between 14 November 2014 and 13 May 2015, and 349 between 1 September and 31 December 2015. Antibodies specific for HPAI H5 clade 2.3.4.4 were absent in wild bird sera obtained before 2014 and present in sera collected during and after the HPAI H5N8 emergence in Europe, with antibody incidence declining after the 2014/15 winter. Our results indicate that the HPAI H5N8 virus has not continued to circulate extensively in wild bird populations since the 2014/15 winter and that independent maintenance of the virus in these populations appears unlikely.
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| 3. |
- Lisovski, Simeon, et al.
(författare)
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The roles of migratory and resident birds in local avian influenza infection dynamics
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Applied Ecology. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0021-8901 .- 1365-2664. ; 55:6, s. 2963-2975
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- 1. Migratory birds are an increasing focus of interest when it comes to infection dynamics and the spread of avian influenza viruses (AIV). However, we lack detailed understanding of migratory birds' contribution to local AIV prevalence levels and their downstream socio-economic costs and threats. 2. To explain the potential differential roles of migratory and resident birds in local AIV infection dynamics, we used a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model. We investigated five (mutually non- exclusive) mechanisms potentially driving observed prevalence patterns: (1) a pronounced birth pulse (e.g. the synchronised annual influx of immunologically naive individuals), (2) short-term immunity, (3) increase in susceptible migrants, (4) differential susceptibility to infection (i.e. transmission rate) for migrants and residents, and (5) replacement of migrants during peak migration. 3. SIR models describing all possible combinations of the five mechanisms were fitted to individual AIV infection data from a detailed longitudinal surveillance study in the partially migratory mallard duck (Anas platyrhynchos). During autumn and winter, the local resident mallard community also held migratory mallards that exhibited distinct AIV infection dynamics. 4. Replacement of migratory birds during peak migration in autumn was found to be the most important mechanism driving the variation in local AIV infection patterns. This suggests that a constant influx of migratory birds, likely immunological naive to locally circulating AIV strains, is required to predict the observed temporal prevalence patterns and the distinct differences in prevalence between residents and migrants. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our analysis reveals a key mechanism that could explain the amplifying role of migratory birds in local avian influenza virus infection dynamics; the constant flow and replacement of migratory birds during peak migration. Apart from monitoring efforts, in order to achieve adequate disease management and control in wildlife-with knock-on effects for livestock and humans,-we conclude that it is crucial, in future surveillance studies, to record host demographical parameters such as population density, timing of birth and turnover of migrants.
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| 4. |
- Eichhorn, Götz, et al.
(författare)
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Resting metabolic rate in migratory and non-migratory geese following range expansion : go south, go low
- 2019
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Ingår i: Oikos. - : Wiley. - 0030-1299 .- 1600-0706. ; 128:10, s. 1424-1434
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- While many species suffer from human activities, some like geese benefit and may show range expansions. In some cases geese (partially) gave up migration and started breeding at wintering and stopover grounds. Range expansion may be facilitated and accompanied by physiological changes, especially when associated with changes in migratory behaviour. Interspecific comparisons found that migratory tendency is associated with a higher basal or resting metabolic rate (RMR). We compared RMR of individuals belonging to a migratory and a sedentary colony of barnacle geese Branta leucopsis. The migratory colony is situated in the traditional arctic breeding grounds (Russia), whereas the sedentary colony has recently been established in the now shared wintering area (the Netherlands). We measured RMR by oxygen consumption (Vo2) during two ontogenetic phases (juvenile growth and adult wing moult). We also investigated juvenile growth rates and adult body mass dynamics. Mass-independent Vo2 was 13.6% lower in goslings from the sedentary colony than in goslings from the migratory colony. Similarly, in adult geese, mass-independent Vo2 was 15.5% lower in sedentary than in migratory conspecifics. Goslings in the Netherlands grew 36.2% slower than goslings in Russia, while we found no differences in body dimensions in adults. Adult geese from both colonies commenced wing moult with similar body stores, but whereas Russian barnacle geese maintained this level throughout moult, body stores in geese from the Netherlands fell, being 8.5% lower half-way through the moult. We propose that the colony differences in resting metabolic rate, growth rate and body mass dynamics during moult can be explained by environmental and behavioural differences. The less stringent time constraints combined with poorer foraging opportunities allow for a smaller ‘metabolic machinery’ in non-migratory geese. Our analysis suggests that range expansion may be associated with changes in physiology, especially when paired with changes in migratory tendency.
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