| 1. |
- Persson Pavlović, Erik, 1985-
(författare)
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The weakest link : Governing the risk of floods and dam failure in Sweden
- 2023
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The effects of climate change are already being felt today, and future effects, which will be determined by the readiness and resolve of today’s world leaders, are fraught with high levels of complexity, uncertainty, ambiguity, and transboundary effects – characteristics of systemic risk. Since climate change is seen as a threat multiplier, the risks that might be impacted by climate change, such as floods and dam failure, will be affected by systemic risk characteristics as well. Recent literature on risk governance calls for a more inclusive approach to address the challenges of systemic risks. Sweden has adopted the Sendai Framework, which aims to reduce disaster risk and strengthen societal resilience through a more people-centered approach. Sweden can be expected to have the resources and institutional structures needed to be able to implement the framework at a high level. However, evaluations of recent crises have shown a discrepancy between what can be expected and actual performance. This thesis aims to increase the understanding of contextual barriers to and drivers of inclusive risk governance, with a focus on responsibilities, (mandated) collaboration, and stakeholder participation, as an approach to increase societal resilience against disaster and systemic risk. The aim is reached by studying flood-related systemic risks and their governance. Three distinct, qualitative case studies focusing on different aspects of the Swedish disaster risk reduction and risk governance systems in relation to the risk of floods and dam failure are the empirical foundation for the four papers that are appended in the thesis. The thesis concludes that there is a need for a change in how resilience is framed, as part of a paradigm shift to a discourse that views resilience as a measure of adaptive capacity, and a change in how systemic risks should be understood and governed, as part of a paradigm shift to an inclusive risk governance framework.
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| 2. |
- Fuchs, Sven, et al.
(författare)
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The ambiguity in IPCC's risk diagram raises explanatory challenges
- 2024
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Ingår i: Natural Hazards. - : Springer. - 0921-030X .- 1573-0840.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The concept of risk remains a key aspect in the recently published 6th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC risk diagram shows risk as a function of three elements: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. While this relationship is undisputed, simply superimposing the individual risk factors as presented in the IPCC diagram does not do justice to the underlying definitions of the terms. This diagram can thus confuse more than it clarifies and, we argue, should be reconsidered.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Haas, Jan, Ph.D, 1983-, et al.
(författare)
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A vulnerability index for climate related risks in Sweden
- 2021
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- <p>Social vulnerability is mostly described as specific social inequalities in the context of a disaster. Following this understanding, empirical research focuses on the unequal exposure of different groups to disasters and/or on the unequal capacities of groups to anticipate, cope and recover from the impact of a hazard. Although social vulnerability has recently gained attention in academia, Sweden lacks frameworks and indicators to assess it at a national level.</p><p>Following the large amount of publicly available data in Sweden, to address this gap, we present a method for quantifying social vulnerability to climate risks in Swedish municipalities. A large number of variables were collected and analyzed to create quantitative indicators that purport to measure a municipality&#8217;s vulnerability. Using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), the information in the variables was reduced to a smaller number of components and socioeconomic vulnerability scores for each Swedish municipality. The factor analysis resulted in five components explaining more than 75% of the total variance. The resulting components and the final index are mapped for each municipality.</p><p>The results show that socio-economic vulnerability is not evenly distributed across Sweden. Apart from those findings the fact that some municipal clusters are much more vulnerable than others, the developed method is a useful tool for comparing socio-economic conditions among municipalities and for identifying susceptible municipalities which are likely to face significant challenges in coping with future natural hazard events.</p><p>Preliminary results show similar trends of social vulnerability to natural hazards at a highly resolved spatial level of aggregation as comparted to municipal levels. As studies on social vulnerability are often data-driven and thus performed on larger administrative aggregations, the sub-set of socio-economic variables from Statistics Sweden used in this study was found useful in our approach. In order to explore social vulnerability in conjunction with coastal and fluvial flood scenarios, an interactive web map was created with ArcGIS Dashboards.</p>
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| 5. |
- Haas, Jan, Ph.D, 1983-, et al.
(författare)
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Social sårbarhet för klimatrelaterade hot : Delstudie 2: Generella och hotspecifika index för social sårbarhet i Sverige
- 2022
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Denna rapport, som redovisar del 2 av projektet Social sårbarhet för klimatrelaterade hot, syftar till att ta fram ett generellt sårbarhetsindex för Sverige, men också specifika index för tre olika naturhot: översvämning (älv respektive kust), skogsbrand och ras/skred/erosion. För dessa specifika index har sårbarheten kombinerats med en bedömd exponering för de tre olika hoten. Analysen är gjord på kommun- och RegSO-nivå.
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| 6. |
- Karagiorgos, Konstantinos, et al.
(författare)
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Cloudburst catastrophe modelling : Case study – Jönköping municipality, Sweden
- 2021
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In Europe, flash floods are one of the most significant natural hazards, causing serious risk to life and destruction of buildings and infrastructure. The intense rain causing those floods has a few different names, however, with very similar meaning. The term chosen in this study, ‘cloudburst’, was introduced by Woolley (1946) as “…a torrential downpour of rain which by its spottiness and relatively high intensity suggests the bursting and discharge of the whole cloud at once”. While these events play an important role in the ongoing flood risk management discussion, they are under-represented among flood models.The main aim of this study is to demonstrate an approach by showing how methods and techniques can be integrated together to construct a catastrophe model for flash flooding of Jönköping municipality in Sweden. The model is developed in the framework of the ‘Oasis Loss Modelling Framework’ platform, jointly with end-users from the public sector and the insurance industry. Calibration and validation of the model were conducted by comparisons against three historical cloudburst events and corresponding insurance-claim data.The analysis has shown that it is possible to get acceptable results from a cloudburst catastrophe model using only rainfall data, and not surface-water level as driving variable. The approach presented opens up for such loss modelling in places where complex hydraulic modelling cannot be done because of lacking data or skill of responsible staff. The Swedish case study indicates that the framework presented can be considered as an important decision making tool, by establishing an area for collaboration between academia; insurance businesses; and local authorities, to reduce long-term disaster risk in Sweden.
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| 7. |
- Karagiorgos, Konstantinos, et al.
(författare)
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Index över social sårbarhet för klimatrelaterade risker i Sverige
- 2021
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Studien har tagit fram ett sårbarhetsindex på kommunal nivå i Sverige, baserat på 37 socio-ekonomiska variabler. Metoden som utvecklats i USA bygger på statistisk analys (PCA) och visualisering i ett GIS. Resultaten visar på tydliga regionala skillnader för social sårbarhet. Metoden behöver fortsatt utveckling, med studier för att öka förståelsen för vad som skapar sårbarhet i en svensk kontext.
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| 8. |
- Knös, Daniel, et al.
(författare)
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Cloudburst-disaster modelling : A new open-source catastrophe model
- 2022
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Ingår i: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. - : Elsevier. - 2212-4209. ; 67
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cloudburst flash floods cause big casualties and economic losses. This study primarily investigated if a cloudburst catastrophe (cat) model could be constructed to meaningfully assess such a hazard, exposure and vulnerability in Swedish urban context. Rainfall intensity was used directly as hazard measure, bypassing hydraulic water-level modelling, to predict vulnerability. The Splash (Swedish pluvial modelling analysis and safety handling) cloudburst-disaster model was constructed using the Oasis Loss Modelling Framework, and was based on individual property values and building locations, property-level insurance-loss data, high-resolution geographical data, and rainfall data from a dense municipal gauge network in the city of Jönköping. One major cloudburst event was used to derive a vulnerability curve. The following two events were used for validation and supported the hypothesis that the vulnerability curve changed with time because of municipal flood-risk-reduction measures after the first event. A faulty rain gauge during the first event, replaced by a trustworthy private gauge, clarified the very high sensitivity to cloudburst input. Given the limited amount of loss data, our results were uncertain but they pointed towards possible ways to further this study with other loss data at other locations, possibly using more easily available aggregated loss data. We concluded that a cat model based only on rainfall intensity provided acceptable results, thus providing an opening for future, simplified cloudburst cat models applicable in most geographical contexts where reliable cloudburst data are available, especially in cities with limited topographic data and hydraulic-modelling capacity.
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| 9. |
- Nohrstedt, Daniel, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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Disaster risk reduction and the limits of truisms : Improving the knowledge and practice interface
- 2022
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Ingår i: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. - : Elsevier. - 2212-4209. ; 67
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Action toward strengthened disaster risk reduction (DRR) ideally builds from evidence-based policymaking to inform decisions and priorities. This is a guiding principle for the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR), which outlines priorities for action to reduce disaster risk. However, some of these practical guidelines conceal oversimplified or unsubstantiated claims and assumptions, what we refer to as 'truisms', which, if not properly addressed, may jeopardize the long-term goal to reduce disaster risks. Thus far, much DRR research has focused on ways to bridge the gap between science and practice while devoting less attention to the premises that shape the understanding of DRR issues. In this article, written in the spirit of a perspective piece on the state of the DRR field, we utilize the SFDRR as an illustrative case to identify and interrogate ten selected truisms, from across the social and natural sciences, that have been prevalent in shaping DRR research and practice. The ten truisms concern forecasting, loss, conflict, migration, the local level, collaboration, social capital, prevention, policy change, and risk awareness. We discuss central claims associated with each truism, relate those claims to insights in recent DRR scholarship, and end with suggestions for developing the field through advances in conceptualization, measurement, and causal inference.
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| 10. |
- Patwary, Muhammad Mainuddin, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of extreme weather events on mental health in South and Southeast Asia : A two decades of systematic review of observational studies
- 2024
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Ingår i: Environmental Research. - : Elsevier. - 0013-9351 .- 1096-0953. ; 250
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Extreme weather events in South and Southeast Asia exert profound psychosocial impacts, amplifying the prevalence of mental illness. Despite their substantial consequences, there is a dearth of research and representation in the current literature. We conducted a systematic review of observational studies published between January 1, 2000, and January 20, 2024, to examine the impact of extreme weather events on the mental health of the South and Southeast Asian population. Quality assessment of the included studies was conducted using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) quality appraisal checklist. The search retrieved 70 studies that met the inclusion criteria and were included in our review. Most were from India (n = 22), and most used a cross-sectional study design (n = 55). Poor mental health outcomes were associated with six types of extreme weather events: floods, storm surges, typhoons, cyclones, extreme heat, and riverbank erosion. Most studies (n = 41) reported short-term outcome measurements. Findings included outcomes with predictable symptomatology, including post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, anxiety, general psychological distress, emotional distress and suicide. Limited studies on long-term effects showed higher mental disorders after floods and typhoons, while cyclone-exposed individuals had more short-term distress. Notably, the review identified over 50 risk factors influencing mental health outcomes, categorized into six classes: demographic, economic, health, disaster exposure, psychological, and community factors. However, the quantitative evidence linking extreme weather events to mental health was limited due to a lack of longitudinal data, lack of control groups, and the absence of objective exposure measurements. The review found some compelling evidence linking extreme weather events to adverse mental health in the South and Southeast Asia region. Future research should focus on longitudinal study design to identify the specific stressors and climatic factors influencing the relationship between climate extremes and mental health in this region.
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