| 1. |
- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, et al.
(författare)
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Integrating Multiple Research Methods to Unravel the Complexity of Human-Water Systems
- 2021
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Ingår i: AGU Advances. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2576-604X. ; 2:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Predicting floods and droughts is essential to inform the development of policy in water management, climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Yet, hydrological predictions are highly uncertain, while the frequency, severity and spatial distribution of extreme events are further complicated by the increasing impact of human activities on the water cycle. In this commentary, we argue that four main aspects characterizing the complexity of human-water systems should be explicitly addressed: feedbacks, scales, tradeoffs and inequalities. We propose the integration of multiple research methods as a way to cope with complexity and develop policy-relevant science.Plain Language SummarySeveral governments today claim to be following the science in addressing crises caused by the occurrence of extreme events, such as floods and droughts, or the emergence of global threats, such as climate change and COVID-19. In this commentary, we show that there are no universal answers to apparently simple questions such as: Do levees reduce flood risk? Do reservoirs alleviate droughts? We argue that the best science we have consists of a plurality of legitimate interpretations and a range of foresights, which can be enriched by integrating multiple disciplines and research methods.
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| 2. |
- Mazzoleni, Maurizio, et al.
(författare)
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Floodplains in the Anthropocene : A Global Analysis of the Interplay Between Human Population, Built Environment, and Flood Severity
- 2021
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Ingår i: Water resources research. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 57:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study presents a global explanatory analysis of the interplay between the severity of flood losses and human presence in floodplain areas. In particular, we relate economic losses and fatalities caused by floods during 1990-2000, with changes in human population and built-up areas in floodplains during 2000-2015 by exploiting global archives. We found that population and built-up areas in floodplains increased in the period 2000-2015 for the majority of the analyzed countries, albeit frequent flood losses in the previous period 1990-2000. In some countries, however, population in floodplains decreased in the period 2000-2015, following more severe floods losses that occurred in the period 1975-2000. Our analysis shows that (i) in low-income countries, population in floodplains increased after a period of high flood fatalities; while (ii) in upper-middle and high-income countries, built-up areas increased after a period of frequent economic losses. In this study, we also provide a general framework to advance knowledge of human-flood interactions and support the development of sustainable policies and measures for flood risk management and disaster risk reduction.
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| 3. |
- Mazzoleni, Maurizio, et al.
(författare)
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Water management, hydrological extremes, and society : modeling interactions and phenomena
- 2021
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Ingår i: Ecology and Society. - : Resilience Alliance, Inc.. - 1708-3087. ; 26:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a system-dynamics model to simulate the interplay between water management, hydrological extremes (droughts and floods), and society. We illustrate the potential and limitations of the model with an example application to the Brisbane river basin (Australia). In particular, we test its capability to explain various phenomena that have been empirically observed, including the levee paradox, (mal)adaptation, and supply-demand cycles. To illustrate, we consider four water-management strategies: no actions, in which no measures are adopted to mitigate droughts and floods; fighting floods, in which a levee system is built and raised to cope with flooding; water conservation, in which demand management is implemented to cope with drought; and water exploitation, in which the water supply is increased to cope with drought. Our findings show that changes in flood and drought awareness can help contribute to the emergence of multiple phenomena. Moreover, the outcomes from the proposed coupled-modeling framework indicate that water-management strategies aimed at specific hydrological extremes can in turn shape the severity of opposite natural hazards. Given its explanatory value, the model can contribute to a better interpretation of changes in drought and flood risk and the role of alternative water-management strategies.
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