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- 2019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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- Watts, Eleanor L., et al.
(författare)
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Circulating sex hormones in relation to anthropometric, sociodemographic and behavioural factors in an international dataset of 12,300 men
- 2017
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 12:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: Sex hormones have been implicated in the etiology of a number of diseases. To better understand disease etiology and the mechanisms of disease-risk factor associations, this analysis aimed to investigate the associations of anthropometric, sociodemographic and behavioural factors with a range of circulating sex hormones and sex hormone-binding globulin.Methods: Statistical analyses of individual participant data from 12,330 male controls aged 25–85 years from 25 studies involved in the Endogenous Hormones Nutritional Biomarkers and Prostate Cancer Collaborative Group. Analysis of variance was used to estimate geometric means adjusted for study and relevant covariates.Results: Older age was associated with higher concentrations of sex hormone-binding globulin and dihydrotestosterone and lower concentrations of dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, free testosterone, androstenedione, androstanediol glucuronide and free estradiol. Higher body mass index was associated with higher concentrations of free estradiol, androstanediol glucuronide, estradiol and estrone and lower concentrations of dihydrotestosterone, testosterone, sex hormone-binding globulin, free testosterone, androstenedione and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate. Taller height was associated with lower concentrations of androstenedione, testosterone, free testosterone and sex hormone-binding globulin and higher concentrations of androstanediol glucuronide. Current smoking was associated with higher concentrations of androstenedione, sex hormone-binding globulin and testosterone. Alcohol consumption was associated with higher concentrations of dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate, androstenedione and androstanediol glucuronide. East Asians had lower concentrations of androstanediol glucuronide and African Americans had higher concentrations of estrogens. Education and marital status were modestly associated with a small number of hormones.Conclusion: Circulating sex hormones in men are strongly associated with age and body mass index, and to a lesser extent with smoking status and alcohol consumption.
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- Watts, Eleanor L., et al.
(författare)
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The associations of anthropometric, behavioural and sociodemographic factors with circulating concentrations of IGF‐I, IGF‐II, IGFBP‐1, IGFBP‐2 and IGFBP‐3 in a pooled analysis of 16,024 men from 22 studies
- 2019
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Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 145:12, s. 3244-3256
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Insulin‐like growth factors (IGFs) and insulin‐like growth factor binding proteins (IGFBPs) have been implicated in the aetiology of several cancers. To better understand whether anthropometric, behavioural and sociodemographic factors may play a role in cancer risk via IGF signalling, we examined the cross‐sectional associations of these exposures with circulating concentrations of IGFs (IGF‐I and IGF‐II) and IGFBPs (IGFBP‐1, IGFBP‐2 and IGFBP‐3). The Endogenous Hormones, Nutritional Biomarkers and Prostate Cancer Collaborative Group dataset includes individual participant data from 16,024 male controls (i.e. without prostate cancer) aged 22–89 years from 22 prospective studies. Geometric means of protein concentrations were estimated using analysis of variance, adjusted for relevant covariates. Older age was associated with higher concentrations of IGFBP‐1 and IGFBP‐2 and lower concentrations of IGF‐I, IGF‐II and IGFBP‐3. Higher body mass index was associated with lower concentrations of IGFBP‐1 and IGFBP‐2. Taller height was associated with higher concentrations of IGF‐I and IGFBP‐3 and lower concentrations of IGFBP‐1. Smokers had higher concentrations of IGFBP‐1 and IGFBP‐2 and lower concentrations of IGFBP‐3 than nonsmokers. Higher alcohol consumption was associated with higher concentrations of IGF‐II and lower concentrations of IGF‐I and IGFBP‐2. African Americans had lower concentrations of IGF‐II, IGFBP‐1, IGFBP‐2 and IGFBP‐3 and Hispanics had lower IGF‐I, IGF‐II and IGFBP‐3 than non‐Hispanic whites. These findings indicate that a range of anthropometric, behavioural and sociodemographic factors are associated with circulating concentrations of IGFs and IGFBPs in men, which will lead to a greater understanding of the mechanisms through which these factors influence cancer risk.
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- Ranganathan, Meghna, et al.
(författare)
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Transactional sex among young women in rural South Africa : prevalence, mediators and association with HIV infection
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of the International AIDS Society. - 1758-2652. ; 19
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: Young adolescent women in sub-Saharan Africa are three to four times more likely to be HIV-positive than boys or men. One of the relationship dynamics that is likely to be associated with young women's increased vulnerability to HIV is transactional sex. There are a range of HIV-related risk behaviours that may drive this vulnerability. However, to date, limited epidemiological data exist on the role of transactional sex in increasing HIV acquisition, especially among young women in subSaharan Africa. Our paper presents data on the prevalence of self-reported engagement in transactional sex and explores whether transactional sex is associated with increased risk of HIV infection among a cohort of young, rural, sexually active South African women. We also explore whether this relationship is mediated through certain HIV-related risk behaviours.Methods: We analyzed baseline data from a phase III trial of conditional cash transfers for HIV prevention of 693 sexually active, school-going young women aged 13-20 years in rural South Africa. We examined the association between young women's engagement in transactional sex and HIV infection. Transactional sex is defined as a non-commercial, non-marital sexual relationship whereby sex is exchanged for money and/or gifts. We explored whether this relationship is mediated by certain HIVrelated risk behaviours. We used logistic and multinomial regression and report unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios with 95% CI.Results: Overall, 14% (n = 97) of sexually active young women reported engaging in transactional sex. Engagement in transactional sex was associated with an increased risk of being HIV-positive (aOR: 2.5, CI: 95% 1.19-5.25, p = 0.01). The effect size of this association remained nearly unchanged when adjusted for certain other dimensions of HIV risk that might help explain the underlying pathways for this relationship.Conclusions: This study provides quantitative support demonstrating that transactional sex is associated with HIV infection in young women. Even though the specific variables tested do not mediate the relationship, a potential explanation for this association may be that the men with whom young women are having sex belong to networks of sexually connected individuals who are at a "high risk" for HIV infection. The results highlight the importance of structural intervention approaches that can alter the context of young women's HIV risk.
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