| 1. |
- Olsson, Ola, 1971, et al.
(författare)
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Fiscal capacity in "post"-conflict states : Evidence from trade on Congo river
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Development Economics. - : Elsevier. - 0304-3878 .- 1872-6089. ; 146
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In many post-conflict states with a weak fiscal capacity, illicit domestic levies on trade remain a serious obstacle to economic development. In this paper, we explore the interplay between traders and authorities on Congo River - a key transport corridor in one of the world’s poorest and most conflict-ridden countries; DR Congo. We outline a general theoretical framework featuring transport operators who need to pass multiple taxing stations and negotiate over taxes with several authorities on their way to a central market place. We then examine empirically the organization, extent, and factors explaining the level of taxes charged by various authorities across stations, by collecting primary data from boat operators. Most of the de facto taxes charged on Congo River have no explicit support in laws or government regulations and have been characterized as a “fend for yourself”-system of funding. Our study shows that traders have to pass more than 10 stations downstream where about 20 different authorities charge taxes. In line with hold-up theory, we find that the average level of taxation tends to increase downstream closer to Kinshasa, but authorities that were explicitly prohibited from taxing in a recent decree instead extract more payments upstream. Our results illustrate a highly dysfunctional taxing regime that nonetheless is strikingly similar to anecdotal evidence of the situation on the Rhine before 1800. In the long run, a removal of domestic river taxation on Congo River should have the potential to raise trade substantially.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Ahlerup, Pelle, 1977, et al.
(författare)
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Sustainable Economic Growth: A Critical Assessment of SDG 8.1
- 2023
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In this report, we focus on the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 8.1, stipulating that countries should pursue real GDP per capita growth rates that are in accordance with their national circumstances and that total GDP should grow by more than seven percent a year in the least developed countries. We start by briefly discussing the background of this target and then review some of the existing research on economic growth across the world, starting with growth theory and its predictions concerning the convergence of growth rates and income levels in the short and long term. We also review the extensive empirical work on cross-country income and growth regressions that have accumulated during the last three decades, focusing on recent (pre-covid) and historical patterns regarding the fulfillment of the SDG 8.1 targets. We show that a growth rate in total GDP of seven percent per year has only been observed in about 10 percent of all available country-year observations over history. Growth rates exceeding seven percent were relatively frequent among poor countries during 2000-2009 but not during 2009-2019. Since 2000, the relatively high average growth rates among poor countries have implied that their income levels have steadily converged towards those of richer countries, although at a slow pace. This pattern is manifested in longer periods of sustained growth episodes in poor countries and can probably be explained by successful policy reforms. We also show that about a third of all countries managed to have positive economic growth during 2010-19 while at the same time decreasing their emissions of CO2 from production (decoupling). For poor and rich countries alike, the growth prospects post-covid and after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are uncertain.
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| 4. |
- Borcan, Oana, et al.
(författare)
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Transition to agriculture and first state presence: A global analysis
- 2021
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Ingår i: Explorations in Economic History. - : Elsevier BV. - 0014-4983 .- 1090-2457. ; 82
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It has often been observed that the emergence of states in a region is typically preceded by an earlier transition to agricultural production. Using new data on the date of first state emergence within contemporary countries, we present a global scale analysis of the chronological relationship between the transition to agriculture and the subsequent emergence of states. We find statistically significant relationships between early reliance on agriculture and state age in all sub-samples and also when we use alternative sources of data at different levels of geographical aggregation. A one millennium earlier transition to agriculture among non-pristine states predicts a 317-430 year earlier state emergence. We uncover differences in cases where states were imposed from outside or when they emerged through internal origination. The agriculture-state lag is on average 3.1 millennia in internally originated (including pristine) states, and 2.7 millennia in externally originated states. We also explore some of the mechanisms through which agriculture is believed to have influenced the emergence of states. Our results indicate that the rise of social classes was often an intermediate step towards the presence of early states.
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| 5. |
- D´Arcy, Michelle, et al.
(författare)
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Land Property Rights, Cadasters and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Panel 1000-2015 CE
- 2021
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Since the transition to agricultural production, property rights to land have been a key institution for economic development. Clearly defined land rights provide economic agents with increased access to credit, secure returns on investment, free up resources used to defend one's land rights, and facilitate land market transactions. Formalized land records also strengthen governments' capacity to tax land-owners. Despite a large body of extant micro-level empirical studies, macro-level research on the evolution of formal rights to land, and their importance for economic growth, has so far been lacking. In this paper, we present a novel data set on the emergence of state-administered cadasters (i.e. centralized land records) for 159 countries over the last millennium. We also analyze empirically the association between the development of cadastral institutions and long-run economic growth in a panel of countries. Our findings demonstrate a substantive positive effect of the introduction of cadasters on modern per capita income levels, supporting theoretical conjectures that states with more formalized property rights to land should experience higher levels of economic growth.
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| 6. |
- Dalgaard, C. J., et al.
(författare)
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Roman roads to prosperity: Persistence and non-persistence of public infrastructure
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Comparative Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0147-5967. ; 50:4, s. 896-916
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, we explore the link between public transport infrastructure investments made during antiquity and the presence of infrastructure today; as well as the link between early infrastructure and economic activity, both in the past and in the present. We examine the territory under dominion of the Roman Empire at the zenith of its geographical extension (117 CE), and find a remarkable pattern of persistence showing that greater Roman road density goes along with (a) greater modern road density, (b) greater settlement formation in 500 CE, and (c) greater economic activity in 2010–2020. Exploiting a natural experiment, we find that persistence in road density and the strong link between early road density and contemporary economic development weaken to the point of insignificance in areas where the use of wheeled vehicles was abandoned and caravan trade routes replaced road-based trade from the first millennium CE until the late modern period. Studying channels of persistence, we identify the emergence of market towns during the early medieval period and the modern era as a robust mechanism sustaining the persistent effects of the Roman roads network. Our results contribute to a deeper understanding of the channels through which persistence in comparative development comes about.
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| 7. |
- D'Arcy, Michelle, et al.
(författare)
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Cadasters and Economic Growth: A Long-Run Cross-Country Panel
- 2024
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Ingår i: Journal of Political Economy. - 0022-3808.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cadasters are public records of land ownership that facilitate clear assignment of property rights and land demarcation, thereby reducing transaction costs for economic agents and strengthening the state's capacity to tax. Macro-level research on the evolution of formal land registration has largely been lacking. Using a novel dataset on the emergence and development of state-administered cadasters in 159 countries over the last millennium, we analyze empirically the association between the development of cadastral institutions and long-run economic growth. Our findings suggest a substantive positive effect of the introduction of cadasters on modern per capita income levels.
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| 8. |
- Ho, H. A., et al.
(författare)
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The origins of cultural divergence: evidence from Vietnam
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Economic Growth. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1381-4338 .- 1573-7020. ; 27:1, s. 45-89
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cultural norms diverge substantially across societies, often within the same country. We propose and investigate a self-domestication/selective migration hypothesis, proposing that cultural differences along the individualism-collectivism dimension are driven by the out-migration of individualistic people from collectivist core regions of states to peripheral frontier areas, and that such patterns of historical migration are reflected even in the current distribution of cultural norms. Gaining independence in 939 CE after about a thousand years of Chinese colonization, historical Vietnam emerged in the region that is now north Vietnam with a collectivist social organization. From the eleventh to the eighteenth centuries, historical Vietnam gradually expanded its territory southward to the Mekong River Delta through repeated waves of conquest and migration. Using a nationwide household survey, a population census, and a lab-in-the-field experiment, we demonstrate that areas annexed earlier to historical Vietnam are currently more prone to collectivist norms, and that these cultural norms are embodied in individual beliefs. Relying on many historical accounts, together with various robustness checks, we argue that the southward out-migration of individualistic people during the eight centuries of the territorial expansion is an important driver, among many others, of these cultural differences.
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| 9. |
- Lindsay, Willow R, et al.
(författare)
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Endless forms of sexual selection
- 2024
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The field of sexual selection has burgeoned with research into trait evolution in the context of ecology, sociality, phylogeny, natural selection, and sexual conflict. This paper is the product of a “stock-taking” workshop; our aim is to stimulate discussion, not to provide an exhaustive review. We identify outstanding questions organized into four thematic sections.1) Evolution of mate choice and mating systems. Variation in mate quality can generate mating competition and choice in either sex with implications for the evolution of mating systems. Limitations on mate choice may dictate the importance of direct vs. indirect benefits in mating decisions and consequently, mating systems. Specifically, polyandry evolves in response to the strength of pre- vs. post-copulatory selection. The evolution of polyandry may be related to diversity of pathogens and Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) genes. MHC genes are also potential cues of kinship in avoidance of inbreeding. The balance between inbreeding avoidance and inclusive fitness in mating decisions deserves greater attention.2) Sender and receiver mechanisms shaping signal design. Mediation of honest signal content likely depends on integration of temporally variable social and physiological costs that are a challenge to measure. The neuroethology of sensory and cognitive receiver biases is the main key to signal form and the ‘aesthetic sense’ proposed by Darwin. Since a receiver bias is sufficient to both start and drive ornament or armament exaggeration, without a genetically correlated or even coevolving receiver, this may be the appropriate ‘null model’ of sexual selection.3) Genetic architecture of sexual selection. Despite advances in modern molecular techniques, the number and identity of genes underlying performance remain largely unknown. A combination of genomic techniques and long-term field studies that reveal ecological correlates of reproductive success is warranted. In-depth investigations into the genetic basis of sexual dimorphism will reveal constraints and trajectories of sexually selected trait evolution.4) Sexual selection and conflict as drivers of speciation. Population divergence and speciation is often driven by an interplay between sexual and natural selection. To what extent sexual selection promotes or counteracts population divergence may differ depending on the genetic architecture of traits as well as covariance between mating competition and local adaptation, if traits have multiple functions and if sensory systems used in mate choice are locally adapted. Also, post-copulatory processes, e.g. selection against heterospecific sperm, may influence the importance of sexual selection. Sexual conflict can shape speciation processes, since mate choice selection on females can restrict gene flow whereas selection on males is permissive.We propose that efforts to resolve these four themes can catalyze conceptual progress in the field of sexual selection.
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| 10. |
- Lindskog, Annika, 1979, et al.
(författare)
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Conditional Persistence? Historical Disease Exposure and Government Response to COVID-19
- 2023
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In this paper, we investigate differences in government responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing on the theory of the Behavioral Immune System and the Parasite Stress Theory, we hypothesize that a higher historical disease exposure leads to a stricter government response to the pandemic, in particular during the first year which was characterized by fundamental uncertainty. Our empirical analysis, using weekly panel data for almost every country in the world, show that a higher historical disease exposure is indeed related to a stronger response to disease dynamics, at least in the first year of the pandemic. The pattern is the same for state-level containment policies within the United States. Our results suggest that the persistence of historical legacies may not be deterministic, but rather time-varying and conditional on circumstances. Cultural norms may matter more in times of crisis and fundamental uncertainty
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