| 1. |
- Frieler, K, et al.
(författare)
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Assessing the impacts of 1.5° C global warming - simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)
- 2017
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 10, s. 4321-4345
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Con- vention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a “special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 â—ŠC above pre-industrial levels and related global green- house gas emission pathwaysâ€. In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we de- scribe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impact projections to broaden the scientific basis for the report. The simulation protocol is de- signed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of histori- cal warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from im- pacts of other drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simula- tions); (2) quantification of the impacts of additional warm- ing up to 1.5 â—ŠC, including a potential overshoot and long- term impacts up to 2299, and comparison to higher lev- els of global mean temperature change (based on the low- emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the cli- mate effects based on the same climate scenarios while ac- counting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic con- ditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeco- nomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and in particu- lar differential bioenergy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0.With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and anal- ysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or am- plify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impact projections from a range of impact mod- els across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, lakes, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, temperature-related mortality, and global terrestrial biodiver- sity).
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| 2. |
- Schewe, Jacob, et al.
(författare)
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State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.
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