Using multitype branching models to analyze bacterial pathogenicity

• We apply multitype, continuous time, Markov branching models to study pathogenicity in E. coli, a bacterium belonging to the genus Escherichia. First, we examine briefly, the properties of multitype branching processes and we also survey some fundamental limit theorems regarding the behavior of such models under various conditions. These theorems are then applied to discrete, state dependent models, in order to analyze pathogenicity in a published clinical data set consisting of 251 strains of E. coli. We use well established methods, incorporating maximum likelihood techniques, to estimate speciation rates as well as the rates of transition between different states of the models. From the analysis, we not only derive new results, but we also verify some preexisting notions about virulent behavior in bacterial strains.

Subject headings

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Matematik -- Sannolikhetsteori och statistik (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Mathematics -- Probability Theory and Statistics (hsv//eng)

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