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- Boysen, Lena R., et al.
(författare)
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Global climate response to idealized deforestation in CMIP6 models
- 2020
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4189. ; 17, s. 5615-5638
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Changes in forest cover have a strong effect on climate through the alteration of surface biogeophysical and biogeochemical properties that affect energy, water and carbon exchange with the atmosphere. To quantify biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects of deforestation in a consistent setup, nine Earth system models (ESMs) carried out an idealized experiment in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 6 (CMIP6). Starting from their pre-industrial state, models linearly replace 20×106 km2 of forest area in densely forested regions with grasslands over a period of 50 years followed by a stabilization period of 30 years. Most of the deforested area is in the tropics, with a secondary peak in the boreal region. The effect on global annual near-surface temperature ranges from no significant change to a cooling by 0.55 ∘C, with a multi-model mean of −0.22±0.21 ∘C. Five models simulate a temperature increase over deforested land in the tropics and a cooling over deforested boreal land. In these models, the latitude at which the temperature response changes sign ranges from 11 to 43∘ N, with a multi-model mean of 23∘ N. A multi-ensemble analysis reveals that the detection of near-surface temperature changes even under such a strong deforestation scenario may take decades and thus longer than current policy horizons. The observed changes emerge first in the centre of deforestation in tropical regions and propagate edges, indicating the influence of non-local effects. The biogeochemical effect of deforestation are land carbon losses of 259±80 PgC that emerge already within the first decade. Based on the transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) this would yield a warming by 0.46 ± 0.22 ∘C, suggesting a net warming effect of deforestation. Lastly, this study introduces the “forest sensitivity” (as a measure of climate or carbon change per fraction or area of deforestation), which has the potential to provide lookup tables for deforestation–climate emulators in the absence of strong non-local climate feedbacks. While there is general agreement across models in their response to deforestation in terms of change in global temperatures and land carbon pools, the underlying changes in energy and carbon fluxes diverge substantially across models and geographical regions. Future analyses of the global deforestation experiments could further explore the effect on changes in seasonality of the climate response as well as large-scale circulation changes to advance our understanding and quantification of deforestation effects in the ESM frameworks.
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| 2. |
- Ito, Akihiko, et al.
(författare)
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Soil carbon sequestration simulated in CMIP6-LUMIP models : Implications for climatic mitigation
- 2020
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 15:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Land-use change affects both the quality and quantity of soil organic carbon (SOC) and leads to changes in ecosystem functions such as productivity and environmental regulation. Future changes in SOC are, however, highly uncertain owing to its heterogeneity and complexity. In this study, we analyzed the outputs of simulations of SOC stock by Earth system models (ESMs), most of which are participants in the Land-Use Model Intercomparison Project. Using a common protocol and the same forcing data, the ESMs simulated SOC distribution patterns and their changes during historical (1850-2014) and future (2015-2100) periods. Total SOC stock increased in many simulations over the historical period (30 ± 67 Pg C) and under future climate and land-use conditions (48 ± 32 Pg C for ssp126 and 49 ± 58 Pg C for ssp370). Land-use experiments indicated that changes in SOC attributable to land-use scenarios were modest at the global scale, in comparison with climatic and rising CO2 impacts, but they were notable in several regions. Future net soil carbon sequestration rates estimated by the ESMs were roughly 0.4‰ yr-1 (0.6 Pg C yr-1). Although there were considerable inter-model differences, the rates are still remarkable in terms of their potential for mitigation of global warming. The disparate results among ESMs imply that key parameters that control processes such as SOC residence time need to be better constrained and that more comprehensive representation of land management impacts on soils remain critical for understanding the long-term potential of soils to sequester carbon.
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