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- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2014
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 384:9947, s. 957-979
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.
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| 3. |
- Pope, Harrison G., Jr., et al.
(författare)
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Adverse Health Consequences of Performance-Enhancing Drugs : An Endocrine Society Scientific Statement
- 2014
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Ingår i: Endocrine reviews. - : The Endocrine Society. - 0163-769X .- 1945-7189. ; 35:3, s. 341-375
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Despite the high prevalence of performance-enhancing drug (PED) use, media attention has focused almost entirely on PED use by elite athletes to illicitly gain a competitive advantage in sports, and not on the health risks of PEDs. There is a widespread misperception that PED use is safe or that adverse effects are manageable. In reality, the vast majority of PED users are not athletes but rather nonathlete weightlifters, and the adverse health effects of PED use are greatly under appreciated. This scientific statement synthesizes available information on the medical consequences of PED use, identifies gaps in knowledge, and aims to focus the attention of the medical community and policymakers on PED use as an important public health problem. PED users frequently consume highly supraphysiologic doses of PEDs, combine them with other PEDs and/or other classical drugs of abuse, and display additional associated risk factors. PED use has been linked to an increased risk of death and a wide variety of cardiovascular, psychiatric, metabolic, endocrine, neurologic, infectious, hepatic, renal, and musculoskeletal disorders. Because randomized trials cannot ethically duplicate the large doses of PEDs and the many factors associated with PED use, we need observational studies to collect valid out come data on the health risks associated with PEDs. In addition, we need studies regarding the prevalence of PED use, the mechanisms by which PEDs exert their adverse health effects, and the interactive effects of PEDs with sports injuries and other high-risk behaviors. We also need randomized trials to assess therapeutic interventions for treating the adverse effects of PEDs, such as the anabolic-androgen steroid withdrawal syndrome. Finally, we need to raise public awareness of the serious health consequences of PEDs.
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