| 1. |
|
|
| 2. |
|
|
| 3. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
-
Challenging the planetary boundaries II: Assessing the sustainable global population and phosphate supply, using a systems dynamics assessment model
- 2011
-
Ingår i: Applied Geochemistry. - : Elsevier BV. - 0883-2927. ; 26:Suppl., s. 307-310
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A systems dynamics model was developed to assess the planetary boundary for P supply in relation to use by human society. It is concluded that present day use rates and poor recycling rates of P are unsustainable at timescales beyond 100+ a. The predictions made suggest that P will become a scarce and expensive material in the future. The study shows clearly that market mechanisms alone will not be able to secure an efficient use before a large part of the resource will have been allowed to dissipate into the natural environment. It is suggested that population size management and effective recycling measures must be planned long term to avoid unpleasant consequences of hunger and necessary corrections imposed on society by mass balance and thermodynamics. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
|
|
| 4. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
-
Investigating the sustainability of the global silver supply, reserves, stocks in society and market price using different approaches
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Resources, Conservation & Recycling. - : Elsevier BV. - 0921-3449. ; 83, s. 121-140
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The authors have collected data for the silver market, shedding light on market size, stocks in society and silver flows in society. The world supply from mining, depletion of the remaining reserves, reducing ore grades, market price and turnover of silver was simulated using the SILVER model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, populations dynamics, use in society and waste and recycling into an integrated system. At the same time the degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using different methods such as: 1: burn-off rates, 2: peak discovery early warning, 3: Hubbert's production model, and 4: System dynamic modelling. The Hubbert's model was run for the period of 6000 BC-3000 AD, the SILVER system dynamics model was run for the time range 1840-2340. We have estimated that the ultimately recoverable reserves of silver are in the range 2.7-3.1 million tonne silver at present, of which approximately 1.35-1.46 million tonne have already been mined. The timing estimate range for peak silver production is narrow, in the range 2027-2038, with the best estimate in 2034. By 2240, all silver mines will be nearly empty and exhausted. The outputs from all models converge to emphasize the importance of consistent recycling and the avoidance of irreversible losses to make society more sustainable with respect to silver market supply. (C) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
|
|
| 5. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
-
Peak Metals, Minerals, Energy, Wealth, Food and Population: Urgent Policy Considerations for a Sustainable Society
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering. - 1934-8932. ; :5, s. 499-533
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Several strategic metals, elements and energy resources are about to run into scarcity in the near future under the present paradigm of use. A global systems model has been developed (WORLD) to assess the issue of scarcity and its implications for society. We show that scarcity may lead to “peak wealth”, “peak population”, “peak waste” and “peak civilization”, unless urgent counter-measures are systematically undertaken. Materials that underpin modern society may become unavailable for global mass production of goods. The material volumes that can be supplied from fossil reserves will be reduced with respect to today and resources will go up in price. The future resource supply is unsustainable without comprehensive recycling. The creation of wealth from conversion of resources and work, as well as the current extensive borrowing from the future, cause concerns that peaking energy and materials production may lead to “peak wealth” and the end of the golden age we live in. Our policy recommendations are that governments must take this issue seriously and must immediately start preparing legislations to close material cycles, optimize energy use and minimize irreversible material losses. Research efforts need to be based on systems thinking and a concerted effort is needed.
|
|
| 6. |
|
|
| 7. |
- Sverdrup, Harald, et al.
(författare)
-
The WORLD model: Peak metals, minerals, energy, wealth, food and population
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Proceedings of the 30th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society. - 9781935056096 ; , s. 102-102
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper we show that several metals, elements and energy resources are about to run into scarcity within the next decades, and most elements within some centuries. A new global systems model was assembled to analyse this scarcity as a continuation of the model used in the Limits-to-Growth World3 model. We show that this scarcity will lead to “peak wealth”, “peak population”, “peak costs”, “peak junk”, “peak problems” and possibly “peak civilization”, unless some urgent measures are systematically taken throughout the world. Scarcity implies that materials that underpin modern society will largely be unavailable for global mass production of goods. The material volumes that can be supplied from fossil reserves will be reduced with respect to today and all materials will go up sharply in price. The future resource supply is thus unsustainable as long as resource use continues as today. The creation of money from conversion of resources and work, as well as the current extensive borrowing from the future, cause concerns that peak oil and peak materials may lead to “peak wealth” and the end of the golden age we currently have for developed nations. Our policy recommendations are that governments must take this issue seriously and immediately start preparing for legislations that can close material cycles, optimize energy use and minimize all types of irreversible material losses as soon as possible. Forceful programs promoting extensive recycling are needed as well as special care in closing loops and reducing irreversible losses. Research efforts in this field needs to be based on systems thinking and a concerted effort is needed globally.
|
|
| 8. |
- Sverdrup, Harald U., et al.
(författare)
-
On modelling the global copper mining rates, market supply, copper price and the end of copper reserves
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Resources, Conservation & Recycling. - : Elsevier BV. - 0921-3449. ; 87, s. 158-174
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The world supply and turnover of copper was modelled using simple empirical estimates and a COPPER systems dynamics model developed for this study. The model combines mining, trade markets, price mechanisms, population dynamics, use in society and waste as well as recycling, into a whole world system. The degree of sustainability and resource time horizon was estimated using four different methods including (1) burn-off rates, (2) peak discovery early warning, (3) Hubbert's production model, and (4) COPPER, a system dynamics model. The ultimately recoverable reserves (URR) have been estimated using different sources that converge around 2800 million tonne, where about 800 million tonne have already been mined, and 2000 million tonne remain. The different methods independently suggest peak copper mine production in the near future. The model was run for a longer period to cover all systems dynamics and delays. The peak production estimates are in a narrow window in time, from 2031 to 2042, with the best model estimate in 2034, or 21 years from the date of writing. In a longer perspective, taking into account price and recycling, the supply of copper to society is estimated to run out sometime after 2400. The outputs from all models put focus on the importance of copper recycling so that society can become more sustainable with respect to copper supply. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
|
|
| 9. |
|
|
