| 1. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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| 2. |
- Feng, Shaohong, et al.
(författare)
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Dense sampling of bird diversity increases power of comparative genomics
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 587:7833
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Whole-genome sequencing projects are increasingly populating the tree of life and characterizing biodiversity(1-4). Sparse taxon sampling has previously been proposed to confound phylogenetic inference(5), and captures only a fraction of the genomic diversity. Here we report a substantial step towards the dense representation of avian phylogenetic and molecular diversity, by analysing 363 genomes from 92.4% of bird families-including 267 newly sequenced genomes produced for phase II of the Bird 10,000 Genomes (B10K) Project. We use this comparative genome dataset in combination with a pipeline that leverages a reference-free whole-genome alignment to identify orthologous regions in greater numbers than has previously been possible and to recognize genomic novelties in particular bird lineages. The densely sampled alignment provides a single-base-pair map of selection, has more than doubled the fraction of bases that are confidently predicted to be under conservation and reveals extensive patterns of weak selection in predominantly non-coding DNA. Our results demonstrate that increasing the diversity of genomes used in comparative studies can reveal more shared and lineage-specific variation, and improve the investigation of genomic characteristics. We anticipate that this genomic resource will offer new perspectives on evolutionary processes in cross-species comparative analyses and assist in efforts to conserve species. A dataset of the genomes of 363 species from the Bird 10,000 Genomes Project shows increased power to detect shared and lineage-specific variation, demonstrating the importance of phylogenetically diverse taxon sampling in whole-genome sequencing.
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| 3. |
- Paquin-Proulx, D, et al.
(författare)
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Preferential and persistent impact of acute HIV-1 infection on CD4+ iNKT cells in colonic mucosa
- 2021
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 1091-6490. ; 118:46
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Evidence suggests that HIV-1 disease progression is determined in the early stages of infection. Here, preinfection invariant natural killer T (iNKT) cell levels were predictive of the peak viral load during acute HIV-1 infection (AHI). Furthermore, iNKT cells were preferentially lost in AHI. This was particularly striking in the colonic mucosa, where iNKT cells were depleted more profoundly than conventional CD4+T cells. The initiation of antiretroviral therapy during AHI-prevented iNKT cell dysregulation in peripheral blood but not in the colonic mucosa. Overall, our results support a model in which iNKT cells are early and preferential targets for HIV-1 infection during AHI.
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| 4. |
- Lal, KG, et al.
(författare)
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Dynamic MAIT cell response with progressively enhanced innateness during acute HIV-1 infection
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 11:1, s. 272-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Mucosa-associated invariant T (MAIT) cell loss in chronic HIV-1 infection is a significant insult to antimicrobial immune defenses. Here we investigate the response of MAIT cells during acute HIV-1 infection utilizing the RV217 cohort with paired longitudinal pre- and post-infection samples. MAIT cells are activated and expand in blood and mucosa coincident with peak HIV-1 viremia, in a manner associated with emerging microbial translocation. This is followed by a phase with elevated function as viral replication is controlled to a set-point level, and later by their functional decline at the onset of chronic infection. Interestingly, enhanced innate-like pathways and characteristics develop progressively in MAIT cells during infection, in parallel with TCR repertoire alterations. These findings delineate the dynamic MAIT cell response to acute HIV-1 infection, and show how the MAIT compartment initially responds and expands with enhanced function, followed by progressive reprogramming away from TCR-dependent antibacterial responses towards innate-like functionality.
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