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- 2019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 2. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 3. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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| 4. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 5. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Pecl, Gretta T., et al.
(författare)
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Biodiversity redistribution under climate change : Impacts on ecosystems and human well-being
- 2017
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 355:6332
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Distributions of Earth's species are changing at accelerating rates, increasingly driven by human-mediated climate change. Such changes are already altering the composition of ecological communities, but beyond conservation of natural systems, how and why does this matter? We review evidence that climate-driven species redistribution at regional to global scales affects ecosystem functioning, human well-being, and the dynamics of climate change itself. Production of natural resources required for food security, patterns of disease transmission, and processes of carbon sequestration are all altered by changes in species distribution. Consideration of these effects of biodiversity redistribution is critical yet lacking in most mitigation and adaptation strategies, including the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals.
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| 8. |
- Robinson, Matthew R., et al.
(författare)
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Population genetic differentiation of height and body mass index across Europe
- 2015
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 47:11, s. 1357-1362
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Across-nation differences in the mean values for complex traits are common(1-8), but the reasons for these differences are unknown. Here we find that many independent loci contribute to population genetic differences in height and body mass index (BMI) in 9,416 individuals across 14 European countries. Using discovery data on over 250,000 individuals and unbiased effect size estimates from 17,500 sibling pairs, we estimate that 24% (95% credible interval (CI) = 9%, 41%) and 8% (95% CI = 4%, 16%) of the captured additive genetic variance for height and BMI, respectively, reflect population genetic differences. Population genetic divergence differed significantly from that in a null model (height, P < 3.94 x 10(-8); BMI, P < 5.95 x 10(-4)), and we find an among-population genetic correlation for tall and slender individuals (r = -0.80, 95% CI = -0.95, -0.60), consistent with correlated selection for both phenotypes. Observed differences in height among populations reflected the predicted genetic means (r = 0.51; P < 0.001), but environmental differences across Europe masked genetic differentiation for BMI (P < 0.58).
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| 9. |
- Carroll, Harriet A., et al.
(författare)
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Effect of acute hypohydration on glycemic regulation in healthy adults : A randomized crossover trial
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Applied Physiology. - : American Physiological Society. - 8750-7587 .- 1522-1601. ; 126:2, s. 422-430
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- he aim of this study was to investigate the acute effect of hydration status on glycemic regulation in healthy adults and explore underlying mechanisms. In this randomized crossover trial, 16 healthy adults (8 men, 8 women) underwent an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) when hypohydrated and rehydrated after 4 days of pretrial standardization. One day before OGTT, participants were dehydrated for 1 h in a heat tent with subsequent fluid restriction (HYPO) or replacement (RE). The following day, an OGTT was performed with metabolic rate measurements and pre- and post-OGTT muscle biopsies. Peripheral quantitative computer tomography thigh scans were taken before and after intervention to infer changes in cell volume. HYPO (but not RE) induced 1.9% (SD 1.2) body mass loss, 2.9% (SD 2.7) cell volume reduction, and increased urinary hydration markers, serum osmolality, and plasma copeptin concentration (all P 0.007). Fasted serum glucose [HYPO 5.10 mmol/l (SD 0.42), RE 5.02 mmol/l (SD 0.40); P 0.327] and insulin [HYPO 27.1 pmol/l (SD 9.7), RE 27.6 pmol/l (SD 9.2); P 0.809] concentrations were similar between HYPO and RE. Hydration status did not alter the serum glucose (P 0.627) or insulin (P 0.200) responses during the OGTT. Muscle water content was lower before OGTT after HYPO compared with RE [761 g/kg wet wt (SD 13) vs. 772 g/kg wet wt (SD 18) RE] but similar after OGTT [HYPO 779 g/kg wet wt (SD 15) vs. RE 780 g/kg wet wt (SD 20); time P 0.011; trial time P 0.055]. Resting energy expenditure was similar between hydration states (stable between 1.21 and 5.94 kJ·kg 1 ·day 1 ; trial P 0.904). Overall, despite acute mild hypohydration increasing plasma copeptin concentrations and decreasing fasted cell volume and muscle water, we found no effect on glycemic regulation.
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| 10. |
- Carroll, Harriet A., et al.
(författare)
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Hydration status affects thirst and salt preference but not energy intake or postprandial ghrelin in healthy adults : A randomised crossover trial
- 2019
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Ingår i: Physiology and Behavior. - : Elsevier BV. - 0031-9384. ; 212
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Few studies have investigated the effect of hydration status on appetite for food in healthy adults. Prior work suggests hydration status does not alter appetite or energy intake, with mixed findings regarding appetite hormone secretion. However, an extensive investigation into both the psychological and physiological appetitive responses to hydration status has never been conducted. Objective: To investigate the effect of hydration status on multiple facets of appetite. Design: After 3 days pre-trial standardization, a range of appetite tasks were conducted when hypohydrated (HYPO) and euhydrated (EUHY) in 16 healthy participants (8 men). Hydration status was manipulated via dehydration in a heat tent for 60 min and subsequent fluid restriction (HYPO) or replacement (EUHY). The next day, a food reward computer task was completed followed by an ad libitum pasta meal. Pre- and post-prandial visual analogue scales assessing hunger, fullness, and flavour desires (sweet, salty, savoury and fatty) were additionally completed. Blood samples were taken the previous day before the hydration interventions in a euhydrated state, and in the fasted and post-prandial state during HYPO and EUHY. Results: HYPO induced -1.9 ± 1.2% body mass change, compared to -0.2 ± 0.6%, with accompanying changes in markers of hypohydration which were not seen during EUHY. A higher desire for foods was associated with a higher water content but the association was weaker in EUHY compared to HYPO, (β= -0.33 mm/g of food water content, p < 0.001) in the food reward task. Visual analogue scales showed similar hunger and fullness between interventions, but during HYPO there was consistently higher thirst (average range in difference 27–32 mm across all time points) and lower fasted desire for salt (−23, 95% CI −10, −35 mm). Ad libitum energy intake (HYPO 1953 ± 742 kJ, EUHY 2027 ± 926 kJ; p = 0.542) and post-prandial ghrelin concentrations (HYPO 180 ± 65 pg mL−1, EUHY 188 ± 71 pg mL−1; p = 0.736) were similar by hydration status. Conclusions: An acute manipulation to hydration status altered desire for salt and foods of differing water contents, but did not influence energy intake at an ad libitum pasta meal. Further research should investigate whether these appetites would alter food choice.
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