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| 2. |
- Fronzek, Stefan, et al.
(författare)
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Classifying multi-model wheat yield impact response surfaces showing sensitivity to temperature and precipitation change
- 2018
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Ingår i: Agricultural Systems. - : Elsevier BV. - 0308-521X. ; 159, s. 209-224
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Crop growth simulation models can differ greatly in their treatment of key processes and hence in their response to environmental conditions. Here, we used an ensemble of 26 process-based wheat models applied at sites across a European transect to compare their sensitivity to changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%). Model results were analysed by plotting them as impact response surfaces (IRSs), classifying the IRS patterns of individual model simulations, describing these classes and analysing factors that may explain the major differences in model responses.The model ensemble was used to simulate yields of winter and spring wheat at four sites in Finland, Germany and Spain. Results were plotted as IRSs that show changes in yields relative to the baseline with respect to temperature and precipitation. IRSs of 30-year means and selected extreme years were classified using two approaches describing their pattern.The expert diagnostic approach (EDA) combines two aspects of IRS patterns: location of the maximum yield (nine classes) and strength of the yield response with respect to climate (four classes), resulting in a total of 36 combined classes defined using criteria pre-specified by experts. The statistical diagnostic approach (SDA) groups IRSs by comparing their pattern and magnitude, without attempting to interpret these features. It applies a hierarchical clustering method, grouping response patterns using a distance metric that combines the spatial correlation and Euclidian distance between IRS pairs. The two approaches were used to investigate whether different patterns of yield response could be related to different properties of the crop models, specifically their genealogy, calibration and process description.Although no single model property across a large model ensemble was found to explain the integrated yield response to temperature and precipitation perturbations, the application of the EDA and SDA approaches revealed their capability to distinguish: (i) stronger yield responses to precipitation for winter wheat than spring wheat; (ii) differing strengths of response to climate changes for years with anomalous weather conditions compared to period-average conditions; (iii) the influence of site conditions on yield patterns; (iv) similarities in IRS patterns among models with related genealogy; (v) similarities in IRS patterns for models with simpler process descriptions of root growth and water uptake compared to those with more complex descriptions; and (vi) a closer correspondence of IRS patterns in models using partitioning schemes to represent yield formation than in those using a harvest index.Such results can inform future crop modelling studies that seek to exploit the diversity of multi-model ensembles, by distinguishing ensemble members that span a wide range of responses as well as those that display implausible behaviour or strong mutual similarities.
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| 3. |
- Gimeno-Miguel, Antonio, et al.
(författare)
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Multimorbidity patterns in patients with heart failure : an observational Spanish study based on electronic health records
- 2019
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Ingår i: BMJ Open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 9:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives To characterise the comorbidities of heart failure (HF) in men and women, to explore their clustering into multimorbidity patterns, and to measure the impact of such patterns on the risk of hospitalisation and mortality.Design Observational retrospective population study based on electronic health records.Setting EpiChron Cohort (Aragon, Spain).Participants All the primary and hospital care patients of the EpiChron Cohort with a diagnosis of HF on 1 January 2011 (ie, 8488 women and 6182 men). We analysed all the chronic diseases registered in patients electronic health records until 31 December 2011.Primary outcome We performed an exploratory factor analysis to identify the multimorbidity patterns in men and women, and logistic and Cox proportional-hazards regressions to investigate the association between the patterns and the risk of hospitalisation in 2012, and of 3-year mortality.Results Almost all HF patients (98%) had multimorbidity, with an average of 7.8 chronic diseases per patient. We identified six different multimorbidity patterns, named cardiovascular, neurovascular, coronary, metabolic, degenerative and respiratory. The most prevalent were the degenerative (64.0%) and cardiovascular (29.9%) patterns in women, and the metabolic (49.3%) and cardiovascular (43.2%) patterns in men. Every pattern was associated with higher hospitalisation risks; and the cardiovascular, neurovascular and respiratory patterns significantly increased the likelihood of 3-year mortality.Conclusions Multimorbidity is the norm rather than the exception in patients with heart failure, whose comorbidities tend to cluster together beyond simple chance in the form of multimorbidity patterns that have different impact on health outcomes. This knowledge could be useful to better understand common pathophysiological pathways underlying this condition and its comorbidities, and the factors influencing the prognosis of men and women with HF. Further large scale longitudinal studies are encouraged to confirm the existence of these patterns as well as their differential impact on health outcomes.
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| 5. |
- Jones, Lesley, et al.
(författare)
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Convergent genetic and expression data implicate immunity in Alzheimer's disease
- 2015
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Ingår i: Alzheimer's & Dementia. - : Wiley. - 1552-5260 .- 1552-5279. ; 11:6, s. 658-671
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Late-onset Alzheimer's disease (AD) is heritable with 20 genes showing genome-wide association in the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project (IGAP). To identify the biology underlying the disease, we extended these genetic data in a pathway analysis. Methods: The ALIGATOR and GSEA algorithms were used in the IGAP data to identify associated functional pathways and correlated gene expression networks in human brain. Results: ALIGATOR identified an excess of curated biological pathways showing enrichment of association. Enriched areas of biology included the immune response (P = 3.27 X 10(-12) after multiple testing correction for pathways), regulation of endocytosis (P = 1.31 X 10(-11)), cholesterol transport (P = 2.96 X 10(-9)), and proteasome-ubiquitin activity (P = 1.34 X 10(-6)). Correlated gene expression analysis identified four significant network modules, all related to the immune response (corrected P = .002-.05). Conclusions: The immime response, regulation of endocytosis, cholesterol transport, and protein ubiquitination represent prime targets for AD therapeutics.
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| 6. |
- Oteros-Rozas, Elisa, et al.
(författare)
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Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research : insights and experiences from 23 case studies
- 2015
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Ingår i: Ecology & Society. - 1708-3087. ; 20:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Participatory scenario planning (PSP) is an increasingly popular tool in place-based environmental research for evaluating alternative futures of social-ecological systems. Although a range of guidelines on PSP methods are available in the scientific and grey literature, there is a need to reflect on existing practices and their appropriate application for different objectives and contexts at the local scale, as well as on their potential perceived outcomes. We contribute to theoretical and empirical frameworks by analyzing how and why researchers assess social-ecological systems using place-based PSP, hence facilitating the appropriate uptake of such scenario tools in the future. We analyzed 23 PSP case studies conducted by the authors in a wide range of social-ecological settings by exploring seven aspects: (1) the context; (2) the original motivations and objectives; (3) the methodological approach; (4) the process; (5) the content of the scenarios; (6) the outputs of the research; and (7) the monitoring and evaluation of the PSP process. This was complemented by a reflection on strengths and weaknesses of using PSP for the place-based social-ecological research. We conclude that the application of PSP, particularly when tailored to shared objectives between local people and researchers, has enriched environmental management and scientific research through building common understanding and fostering learning about future planning of social-ecological systems. However, PSP still requires greater systematic monitoring and evaluation to assess its impact on the promotion of collective action for transitions to sustainability and the adaptation to global environmental change and its challenges.
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| 7. |
- Perez-Gracia, Jose Luis, et al.
(författare)
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Strategies to design clinical studies to identify predictive biomarkers in cancer research
- 2017
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Ingår i: Cancer Treatment Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0305-7372. ; 53, s. 79-97
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The discovery of reliable biomarkers to predict efficacy and toxicity of anticancer drugs remains one of the key challenges in cancer research. Despite its relevance, no efficient study designs to identify promising candidate biomarkers have been established. This has led to the proliferation of a myriad of exploratory studies using dissimilar strategies, most of which fail to identify any promising targets and are seldom validated. The lack of a proper methodology also determines that many anti-cancer drugs are developed below their potential, due to failure to identify predictive biomarkers. While some drugs will be systematically administered to many patients who will not benefit from them, leading to unnecessary toxicities and costs, others will never reach registration due to our inability to identify the specific patient population in which they are active. Despite these drawbacks, a limited number of outstanding predictive biomarkers have been successfully identified and validated, and have changed the standard practice of oncology. In this manuscript, a multidisciplinary panel reviews how those key biomarkers were identified and, based on those experiences, proposes a methodological framework—the DESIGN guidelines—to standardize the clinical design of biomarker identification studies and to develop future research in this pivotal field.
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| 8. |
- Ruiz-Martinez, Jorge, et al.
(författare)
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Prevalence and Genetic Diversity of Avipoxvirus in House Sparrows in Spain
- 2016
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 11:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Avipoxvirus (APV) is a fairly common virus affecting birds that causes morbidity and mortality in wild and captive birds. We studied the prevalence of pox-like lesions and genetic diversity of APV in house sparrows (Passer domesticus) in natural, agricultural and urban areas in southern Spain in 2013 and 2014 and in central Spain for 8 months (2012-2013). Overall, 3.2% of 2,341 house sparrows visually examined in southern Spain had cutaneous lesions consistent with avian pox. A similar prevalence (3%) was found in 338 birds from central Spain. Prevalence was higher in hatch-year birds than in adults. We did not detect any clear spatial or temporal patterns of APV distribution. Molecular analyses of poxvirus-like lesions revealed that 63% of the samples were positive. Molecular and phylogenetic analyses of 29 DNA sequences from the fpv167 gene, detected two strains belonging to the canarypox clade (subclades B1 and B2) previously found in Spain. One of them appears predominant in Iberia and North Africa and shares 70% similarity to fowlpox and canarypox virus. This APV strain has been identified in a limited number of species in the Iberian Peninsula, Morocco and Hungary. The second one has a global distribution and has been found in numerous wild bird species around the world. To our knowledge, this represents the largest study of avian poxvirus disease in the broadly distributed house sparrow and strongly supports the findings that Avipox prevalence in this species in South and central Spain is moderate and the genetic diversity low.
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| 9. |
- Sternby, Hanna, et al.
(författare)
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Determinants of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis : A Nation-wide Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study
- 2019
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Ingår i: Annals of Surgery. - 1528-1140. ; 270:2, s. 348-355
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to compare and validate the different classifications of severity in acute pancreatitis (AP) and to investigate which characteristics of the disease are associated with worse outcomes. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: AP is a heterogeneous disease, ranging from uneventful cases to patients with considerable morbidity and high mortality rates. Severity classifications based on legitimate determinants of severity are important to correctly describe the course of disease. METHODS: A prospective multicenter cohort study involving patients with AP from 23 hospitals in Spain. The Atlanta Classification (AC), Revised Atlanta Classification (RAC), and Determinant-based Classification (DBC) were compared. Binary logistic multivariate analysis was performed to investigate independent determinants of severity. RESULTS: A total of 1655 patients were included; 70 patients (4.2%) died. RAC and DBC were equally superior to AC for describing the clinical course of AP. Although any kind of organ failure was associated with increased morbidity and mortality, persistent organ failure (POF) was the most significant determinant of severity. All local complications were associated with worse outcomes. Infected pancreatic necrosis correlated with high morbidity, but in the presence of POF, it was not associated to higher mortality when compared with sterile necrotizing pancreatitis. Exacerbation of previous comorbidity was associated with increased morbidity and mortality. CONCLUSION: The RAC and DBC both signify an advance in the description and differentiation of AP patients. Herein, we describe the complications of the disease independently associated to morbidity and mortality. Our findings are valuable not only when designing future studies on AP but also for the improvement of current classifications.
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