| 1. |
- Blunden, Jessica, et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2012
- 2013
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 94:8, s. S1-S258
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.
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| 2. |
- Scott, Robert A., et al.
(författare)
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Large-scale association analyses identify new loci influencing glycemic traits and provide insight into the underlying biological pathways
- 2012
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 44:9, s. 991-1005
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Through genome-wide association meta-analyses of up to 133,010 individuals of European ancestry without diabetes, including individuals newly genotyped using the Metabochip, we have increased the number of confirmed loci influencing glycemic traits to 53, of which 33 also increase type 2 diabetes risk (q < 0.05). Loci influencing fasting insulin concentration showed association with lipid levels and fat distribution, suggesting impact on insulin resistance. Gene-based analyses identified further biologically plausible loci, suggesting that additional loci beyond those reaching genome-wide significance are likely to represent real associations. This conclusion is supported by an excess of directionally consistent and nominally significant signals between discovery and follow-up studies. Functional analysis of these newly discovered loci will further improve our understanding of glycemic control.
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| 3. |
- Kahn, Kathleen, et al.
(författare)
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Profile : Agincourt Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance System
- 2012
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Ingår i: International Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0300-5771 .- 1464-3685. ; 41:4, s. 988-1001
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system (HDSS), located in rural northeast South Africa close to the Mozambique border, was established in 1992 to support district health systems development led by the post-apartheid ministry of health. The HDSS (90 000 people), based on an annual update of resident status and vital events, now supports multiple investigations into the causes and consequences of complex health, population and social transitions. Observational work includes cohorts focusing on different stages along the life course, evaluation of national policy at population, household and individual levels and examination of household responses to shocks and stresses and the resulting pathways influencing health and well-being. Trials target children and adolescents, including promoting psycho-social well-being, preventing HIV transmission and reducing metabolic disease risk. Efforts to enhance the research platform include using automated measurement techniques to estimate cause of death by verbal autopsy, full 'reconciliation' of in- and out-migrations, follow-up of migrants departing the study area, recording of extra-household social connections and linkage of individual HDSS records with those from sub-district clinics. Fostering effective collaborations (including INDEPTH multi-centre work in adult health and ageing and migration and urbanization), ensuring cross-site compatibility of common variables and optimizing public access to HDSS data are priorities.
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| 4. |
- Wagner, Ryan G., et al.
(författare)
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Prevalence and risk factors for active convulsive epilepsy in rural northeast South Africa
- 2014
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Ingår i: Epilepsy Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0920-1211 .- 1872-6844. ; 108:4, s. 782-791
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Rationale: Epilepsy is among the most common neurological disorders there are few large, population-based studies of the prevalence and risk southern Africa. Methods: From August 2008 to February 2009, as part of a multi-site study, we undertook a three-stage, population-based study, embedded within the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system, to estimate the prevalence and identify risk factors of active convulsive epilepsy (ACE) in a rural South African population. Results: The crude prevalence of ACE, after adjusting for non-response and the sensitivity of the screening method, was 7.0/1,000 individuals (95%CI 6.4-7.6) with significant geographic heterogeneity across the study area. Being male (OR= 2.3; 95%CI 1.6-3.2), family history of seizures (OR =4.0; 95%CI 2.0-8.1), a sibling with seizures (OR = 7.0; 95%CI 1.6-31.7), problems after delivery (OR= 5.9; 95%CI 1.2-24.6), and history of snoring (OR =6.5; 95%CI 4.5-9.5) were significantly associated with ACE. For children, their mother's exposure to some formal schooling was protective (OR = 0.30; 95%CI 0.11-0.84) after controlling for age and sex. Human immunodeficiency virus was not found to be associated with ACE. Conclusions: ACE is less frequent in this part of rural South Africa than other parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Improving obstetric services could prevent epilepsy. The relationship between snoring and ACE requires further investigation, as does the relative contribution of genetic and environmental factors to examine the increased risk in those with a family history of epilepsy. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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