| 1. |
- Carlsson, Marcus, et al.
(författare)
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A note on variable susceptibility, the herd-immunity threshold and modeling of infectious diseases
- 2023
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 18
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The unfolding of the COVID-19 pandemic has been very difficult to predict using mathematical models for infectious diseases. While it has been demonstrated that variations in susceptibility have a damping effect on key quantities such as the incidence peak, the herd-immunity threshold and the final size of the pandemic, this complex phenomenon is almost impossible to measure or quantify, and it remains unclear how to incorporate it for modeling and prediction. In this work we show that, from a modeling perspective, variability in susceptibility on an individual level is equivalent with a fraction θ of the population having an “artificial” sterilizing immunity. We also derive novel formulas for the herd-immunity threshold and the final size of the pandemic, and show that these values are substantially lower than predicted by the classical formulas, in the presence of variable susceptibility. In the particular case of SARS-CoV-2, there is by now undoubtedly variable susceptibility due to waning immunity from both vaccines and previous infections, and our findings may be used to greatly simplify models. If such variations were also present prior to the first wave, as indicated by a number of studies, these findings can help explain why the magnitude of the initial waves of SARS-CoV-2 was relatively low, compared to what one may have expected based on standard models.
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| 2. |
- Carlsson, Marcus, et al.
(författare)
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COVID-19 Modeling Outcome versus Reality in Sweden
- 2022
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Ingår i: Viruses. - : MDPI AG. - 1999-4915. ; 14:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- It has been very difficult to predict the development of the COVID-19 pandemic based on mathematical models for the spread of infectious diseases, and due to major non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs), it is still unclear to what extent the models would have fit reality in a “do nothing” scenario. To shed light on this question, the case of Sweden during the time frame from autumn 2020 to spring 2021 is particularly interesting, since the NPIs were relatively minor and only marginally updated. We found that state of the art models are significantly overestimating the spread, unless we assume that social interactions significantly decrease continuously throughout the time frame, in a way that does not correlate well with Google-mobility data nor updates to the NPIs or public holidays. This leads to the question of whether modern SEIR-type mathematical models are unsuitable for modeling the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the human population, or whether some particular feature of SARS-CoV-2 dampened the spread. We show that, by assuming a certain level of pre-immunity to SARS-CoV-2, we obtain an almost perfect data-fit, and discuss what factors could cause pre-immunity in the mathematical models. In this scenario, a form of herd-immunity under the given restrictions was reached twice (first against the Wuhan-strain and then against the alpha-strain), and the ultimate decline in cases was due to depletion of susceptibles rather than the vaccination campaign.
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| 3. |
- King, Carina, et al.
(författare)
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COVID-19—a very visible pandemic
- 2020
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 396:10248, s. 15-15
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 4. |
- Merchut-Maya, Joanna Maria, et al.
(författare)
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Human cytomegalovirus hijacks host stress response fueling replication stress and genome instability
- 2022
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Ingår i: Cell Death and Differentiation. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1350-9047 .- 1476-5403. ; 29:8, s. 1639-1653
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Viral infections enhance cancer risk and threaten host genome integrity. Although human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) proteins have been detected in a wide spectrum of human malignancies and HCMV infections have been implicated in tumorigenesis, the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. Here, we employed a range of experimental approaches, including single-molecule DNA fiber analysis, and showed that infection by any of the four commonly used HCMV strains: AD169, Towne, TB40E or VR1814 induced replication stress (RS), as documented by host-cell replication fork asymmetry and formation of 53BP1 foci. The HCMV-evoked RS triggered an ensuing host DNA damage response (DDR) and chromosomal instability in both permissive and non-permissive human cells, the latter being particularly relevant in the context of tumorigenesis, as such cells can survive and proliferate after HCMV infection. The viral major immediate early enhancer and promoter (MIEP) that controls expression of the viral genes IE72 (IE-1) and IE86 (IE-2), contains transcription-factor binding sites shared by promoters of cellular stress-response genes. We found that DNA damaging insults, including those relevant for cancer therapy, enhanced IE72/86 expression. Thus, MIEP has been evolutionary shaped to exploit host DDR. Ectopically expressed IE72 and IE86 also induced RS and increased genomic instability. Of clinical relevance, we show that undergoing standard-of-care genotoxic radio-chemotherapy in patients with HCMV-positive glioblastomas correlated with elevated HCMV protein markers after tumor recurrence. Collectively, these results are consistent with our proposed concept of HCMV hijacking transcription-factor binding sites shared with host stress-response genes. We present a model to explain the potential oncomodulatory effects of HCMV infections through enhanced replication stress, subverted DNA damage response and induced genomic instability.
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| 5. |
- Zhang, Si Min, et al.
(författare)
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NUDT15-mediated hydrolysis limits the efficacy of anti-HCMV drug ganciclovir
- 2021
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Ingår i: Cell Chemical Biology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2451-9456 .- 2451-9448. ; 28:12, s. 1693-1702
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ganciclovir (GCV) is the first-line therapy against human cytomegalovirus (HCMV), a widespread infection that is particularly dangerous for immunodeficient individuals. Closely resembling deoxyguanosine triphosphate, the tri-phosphorylated metabolite of GCV (GCV-TP) is preferentially incorporated by the viral DNA polymerase, thereby terminating chain extension and, eventually, viral replication. However, the treatment outcome of GCV varies greatly among individuals, therefore warranting better understanding of its metabolism. Here we show that NUDT15, a Nudix hydrolase known to metabolize thiopurine triphosphates, can similarly hydrolyze GCV-TP through biochemical studies and co-crystallization of the NUDT15/GCV-TP complex. More critically, GCV efficacy was potentiated in HCMV-infected cells following NUDT15 depletion by RNAi or inhibition by an in-house-developed, nanomolar NUDT15 inhibitor, TH8321, suggesting that pharmacological targeting of NUDT15 is a possible avenue to improve existing anti-HCMV regimens. Collectively, the data further implicate NUDT15 as a broad-spectrum metabolic regulator of nucleoside analog therapeutics, such as thiopurines and GCV.
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