| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 3. |
- Sadeghi, André M., et al.
(author)
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Accuracy and precision of direct bone conduction measurements.
- 2016
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In: B-ENT. - 1781-782X. ; 12:1, s. 41-51
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Variability in Baha® sound processor fittings arise from several sources including the nature of the implant-to-bone transmission and transcranial attenuation in patients with single-sided sensorineural deafness. One method of improving the predictability of Baha fittings is to measure the individual patient's actual bone conduction thresholds via the implant, thereby removing the influence of skin thickness and/or implant location site.One hundred thirty eight adult wearers of the Baha System participated in the study. Direct bone conduction thresholds were obtained through the BC Direct feature of the Cochlear™ Baha Fitting Software combined with the CochlearBaha BP100 sound processor. Test-retest reliability measurement was performed in 58 participants.Improved transmission of sound through the implant rather than transcutaneously through the skin was confirmed. On average, the BC Direct thresholds were closer to the patient's unmasked thresholds than the masked values. In patients with single-sided sensorineural deafness, BC Direct results were elevated compared to the contralateral bone conduction thresholds due to transcranial attenuation. The test-retest reliability for the BC Direct measurements was within ±5 dB, which is in within the accepted variability for audiometric test measurements.Direct bone conduction measurement provides a validated method of comparing the transcutaneous thresholds as measured through audiometry with the percutaneous responses from the Baha sound processor. The Baha fitting based on direct measurements of bone conduction may require less fine-tuning and provide a greater understanding of the variability of the bone conduction sound pathway.
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| 4. |
- Hartel, Bas P., et al.
(author)
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A combination of two truncating mutations in USH2A causes more severe and progressive hearing impairment in Usher syndrome type IIa
- 2016
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In: Hearing Research. - Amsterdam, Netherlands : Elsevier. - 0378-5955 .- 1878-5891. ; 339, s. 60-68
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objectives: Usher syndrome is an inherited disorder that is characterized by hearing impairment (HI), retinitis pigmentosa, and in some cases vestibular dysfunction. Usher syndrome type IIa is caused by mutations in USH2A. HI in these patients is highly heterogeneous and the present study evaluates the effects of different types of USH2A mutations on the audiometric phenotype. Data from two large centres of expertise on Usher Syndrome in the Netherlands and Sweden were combined in order to create a large combined sample of patients to identify possible genotype-phenotype correlations.Design: A retrospective study on HI in 110 patients (65 Dutch and 45 Swedish) genetically diagnosed with Usher syndrome type IIa. We used methods especially designed for characterizing and testing differences in audiological phenotype between patient subgroups. These methods included Age Related Typical Audiograms (ARTA) and a method to evaluate the difference in the degree of HI developed throughout life between subgroups.Results: Cross-sectional linear regression analysis of last-visit audiograms for the best hearing ear demonstrated a gradual decline of hearing over decades. The congenital level of HI was in the range of 16-33 dB at 0.25-0.5 kHz, and in the range of 51-60 dB at 1-8 kHz. The annual threshold deterioration was in the range of 0.4-0.5 dB/year at 0.25-2 kHz and in the range of 0.7-0.8 dB/year at 4-8 kHz. Patients with two truncating mutations, including homozygotes for the common c.2299delG mutation, developed significantly more severe HI throughout life than patients with one truncating mutation combined with one nontruncating mutation, and patients with two nontruncating mutations.Conclusions: The results have direct implications for patient counselling in terms of prognosis of hearing and may serve as baseline measures for future (genetic) therapeutic interventions.
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| 5. |
- Rydberg Sterner, Therese, et al.
(author)
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The Gothenburg H70 Birth cohort study 2014-16: design, methods and study population.
- 2019
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In: European journal of epidemiology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1573-7284 .- 0393-2990. ; 34:2, s. 191-209
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- To improve health care for older persons, we need to learn more about ageing, e.g. identify protective factors and early markers for diseases. The Gothenburg H70 Birth Cohort Studies (the H70 studies) are multidisciplinary epidemiological studies examining representative birth cohorts of older populations in Gothenburg, Sweden. So far, six birth cohorts of 70-year-olds have been examined over time, and examinations have been virtually identical between studies. This paper describes the study procedures for the baseline examination of the Birth cohort 1944, conducted in 2014-16. In this study, all men and women born 1944 on specific dates, and registered as residents in Gothenburg, were eligible for participation (n=1839). A total of 1203 (response rate 72.2%; 559 men and 644 women; mean age 70.5years) agreed to participate in the study. The study comprised sampling of blood and cerebrospinal fluid, psychiatric, cognitive, and physical health examinations, examinations of genetics and family history, use of medications, social factors, functional ability and disability, physical fitness and activity, body composition, lung function, audiological and ophthalmological examinations, diet, brain imaging, as well as a close informant interview, and qualitative studies. As in previous examinations, data collection serves as a basis for future longitudinal follow-up examinations. The research gained from the H70 studies has clinical relevance in relation to prevention, early diagnosis, clinical course, experience of illness, understanding pathogenesis and prognosis. Results will increase our understanding of ageing and inform service development, which may lead to enhanced quality of care for older persons.
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| 10. |
- Göthberg, Hanna, 1973, et al.
(author)
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Cross-sectional assessment of hearing acuity of an unscreened 85-year-old cohort - Including a 10-year longitudinal study of a sub-sample.
- 2019
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In: Hearing research. - : Elsevier BV. - 1878-5891 .- 0378-5955. ; 382
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- As the proportion of older people increases, it is important to investigate hearing acuity in older individuals and to calculate hearing decline for older ages, using standardised test protocols. The main aim of this study was to determine pure-tone hearing thresholds in an unscreened birth cohort of 85-year-olds born in 1930, living in an industrial Swedish city. A further aim was to describe hearing decline in men and women from 75 to 85 years of age with the aid of longitudinal data. The study was part of the Gothenburg H70 Birth Cohort Studies in Sweden. Hearing thresholds (0.25-8kHz) were measured using automated pure-tone audiometry for 286 85-year-old participants. A subsample (n=182) was hearing examined at 75 years of age and studied longitudinally from 75 to 85 years. At age 85 years, men had better hearing at low frequencies but poorer hearing at high frequencies than women. The longitudinal study showed a considerable decline between 75 and 85yearsat mid-high frequencies (>1kHz) and the amount of decline was similar between sexes. The results contribute to the estimation of the future need for hearing health services.
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