| 1. |
- Amano, Tatsuya, et al.
(författare)
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Transforming Practice : Checklists for Delivering Change
- 2022
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Ingår i: Transforming Conservation : A Practical Guide to Evidence and Decision Making - A Practical Guide to Evidence and Decision Making. - 9781800648586 - 9781800648562 ; , s. 367-386
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Delivering a revolution in evidence use requires a cultural change across society. For a wide range of groups (practitioners, knowledge brokers, organisations, organisational leaders, policy makers, funders, researchers, journal publishers, the wider conservation community, educators, writers, and journalists), options are described to facilitate a change in practice, and a series of downloadable checklists is provided.
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| 2. |
- Baey, Charlotte, et al.
(författare)
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Calibration of a bumble bee foraging model using Approximate Bayesian Computation
- 2023
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Ingår i: Ecological Modelling. - : Elsevier BV. - 0304-3800. ; 477
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- 1. Challenging calibration of complex models can be approached by using prior knowledge on the parameters. However, the natural choice of Bayesian inference can be computationally heavy when relying on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. When the likelihood of the data is intractable, alternative Bayesian methods have been proposed. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) only requires sampling from the data generative model, but may be problematic when the dimension of the data is high. 2. We studied alternative strategies to handle high dimensional data in ABC applied to the calibration of a spatially explicit foraging model for Bombus terrestris. The first step consisted in building a set of summary statistics carrying enough biological meaning, i.e. as much as the original data, and then applying ABC on this set. Two ABC strategies, the use of regression adjustment leading to the production of ABC posterior samples, and the use of machine learning approaches to approximate ABC posterior quantiles, were compared with respect to coverage of model estimates and true parameter values. The comparison was made on simulated data as well as on data from two field studies. 3. Results from simulated data showed that some model parameters were easier to calibrate than others. Approaches based on random forests in general performed better on simulated data. They also performed well on field data, even though the posterior predictive distribution exhibited a higher variance. Nonlinear regression adjustment performed better than linear ones, and the classical ABC rejection algorithm performed badly. 4. ABC is an interesting and appealing approach for the calibration of complex models in biology, such as spatially explicit foraging models. However, while ABC methods are easy to implement, they often require considerable tuning.
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| 3. |
- Blasi, Maria, et al.
(författare)
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A model of wild bee populations accounting for spatial heterogeneity and climate-induced temporal variability of food resources at the landscape level
- 2022
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Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : Wiley. - 2045-7758. ; 12:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The viability of wild bee populations and the pollination services that they provide are driven by the availability of food resources during their activity period and within the surroundings of their nesting sites. Changes in climate and land use influence the availability of these resources and are major threats to declining bee populations. Because wild bees may be vulnerable to interactions between these threats, spatially explicit models of population dynamics that capture how bee populations jointly respond to land use at a landscape scale and weather are needed. Here, we developed a spatially and temporally explicit theoretical model of wild bee populations aiming for a middle ground between the existing mapping of visitation rates using foraging equations and more refined agent-based modeling. The model is developed for Bombus sp. and captures within-season colony dynamics. The model describes mechanistically foraging at the colony level and temporal population dynamics for an average colony at the landscape level. Stages in population dynamics are temperature-dependent triggered by a theoretical generalized seasonal progression, which can be informed by growing degree days. The purpose of the LandscapePhenoBee model is to evaluate the impact of system changes and within-season variability in resources on bee population sizes and crop visitation rates. In a simulation study, we used the model to evaluate the impact of the shortage of food resources in the landscape arising from extreme drought events in different types of landscapes (ranging from different proportions of semi-natural habitats and early and late flowering crops) on bumblebee populations.
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| 4. |
- Ekelund Ugge, Gustaf Magnus Oskar, et al.
(författare)
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Transcriptional Responses as Biomarkers of General Toxicity : A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis on Metal-Exposed Bivalves
- 2023
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Ingår i: Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0730-7268 .- 1552-8618. ; 42:3, s. 628-641
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Through a systematic review and a series of meta-analyses, we evaluated the general responsiveness of putative transcriptional biomarkers of general toxicity and chemical stress. We targeted metal exposures performed on bivalves under controlled laboratory conditions, and selected six transcripts associated with general toxicity for evaluation: catalase (cat), glutathione-S-transferase (gst), heat shock proteins 70 and 90 (hsp70, hsp90), metallothionein (mt) and superoxide dismutase (sod). Transcriptional responses (n = 396) were extracted from published scientific articles (k = 22) and converted to log response ratios (lnRRs). By estimating toxic units (TUs), we normalized different metal exposures to a common scale, as a proxy of concentration. Using Bayesian hierarchical random effect models, we then tested the effects of metal exposure on lnRR, both for metal exposure in general and in meta-regressions using TU and exposure time as independent variables. Corresponding analyses were also repeated with transcript and tissue as additional moderators. Observed patterns were similar for general as for transcript- and tissue-specific responses. The expected overall response to arbitrary metal exposure was a lnRR of 0.50, corresponding to a 65 % increase relative a non-exposed control. However, when accounting for publication bias, the estimated ‘true’ response showed no such effect. Furthermore, expected response magnitude increased slightly with exposure time, but there was little support for general monotonic concentration-dependence with regards to TU. Altogether, this work reveals potential limitations that need consideration prior to applying the selected transcripts as biomarkers in environmental risk assessment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. Environ Toxicol Chem 2022;00:0–0.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Govender, Indrani Hazel, et al.
(författare)
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Bayesian Network Applications for Sustainable Holistic Water Resources Management : Modeling Opportunities for South Africa
- 2022
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Ingår i: Risk Analysis. - : Wiley. - 0272-4332 .- 1539-6924. ; 42:6, s. 1346-1364
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Anthropogenic transformation of land globally is threatening water resources in terms of quality and availability. Managing water resources to ensure sustainable utilization is important for a semiarid country such as South Africa. Bayesian networks (BNs) are probabilistic graphical models that have been applied globally to a range of water resources management studies; however, there has been very limited application of BNs to similar studies in South Africa. This article explores the benefits and challenges of BN application in the context of water resources management, specifically in relation to South Africa. A brief overview describes BNs, followed by details of some of the possible opportunities for BNs to benefit water resources management. These include the ability to use quantitative and qualitative information, data, and expert knowledge. BN models can be integrated into geographic information systems and predict impact of ecosystem services and sustainability indicators. With additional data and information, BNs can be updated, allowing for integration into an adaptive management process. Challenges in the application of BNs include oversimplification of complex systems, constraints of BNs with categorical nodes for continuous variables, unclear use of expert knowledge, and treatment of uncertainty. BNs have tremendous potential to guide decision making by providing a holistic approach to water resources management.
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| 7. |
- Hallin, Caroline, et al.
(författare)
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De värsta konsekvenserna av Babet ligger framför oss
- 2024
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Ingår i: Sydsvenskan. - 1652-814X.
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Tidskriftsartikel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Debattartikel om kustskydd och brister i framförhållningen inför kommande stormar under Aktuella frågor i Sydsvenskan.
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| 8. |
- Hedlund, Katarina, et al.
(författare)
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Utmaningar och möjligheter
- 2022
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Ingår i: Markanvändning för en klimatpositiv framtid : En rapport om utmaningar och möjligheter i Skåne - En rapport om utmaningar och möjligheter i Skåne. - 9789198434996 - 9789198434989 ; , s. 48-60
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 9. |
- Hristov, Jordan, et al.
(författare)
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Impacts of the EU's Common Agricultural Policy “Greening” Reform on Agricultural Development, Biodiversity, and Ecosystem Services
- 2020
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Ingår i: Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy. - : Wiley. - 2040-5790 .- 2040-5804. ; 42:4, s. 716-738
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The EU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) has had limited success in mitigating agriculture's environmental degradation. In this paper we simulate the impacts of the 2013 “greening” reform on biodiversity and ecosystem services in environmentally contrasting landscapes. We do this by integrating an agent-based model of structural change with spatial ecological production functions, and show that the reform will likely fail to deliver substantial environmental benefits. Our study implies that greening measures need to be tailored to local conditions and priorities, to generate environmental improvements. Such spatial targeting of measures is though incompatible with the design of a common direct payments scheme.
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| 10. |
- Kerr, John R., et al.
(författare)
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Correlates of intended COVID-19 vaccine acceptance across time and countries : Results from a series of cross-sectional surveys
- 2021
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Ingår i: BMJ Open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 11:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective Describe demographical, social and psychological correlates of willingness to receive a COVID-19 vaccine. Setting Series of online surveys undertaken between March and October 2020. Participants A total of 25 separate national samples (matched to country population by age and sex) in 12 different countries were recruited through online panel providers (n=25 334). Primary outcome measures Reported willingness to receive a COVID-19 vaccination. Results Reported willingness to receive a vaccine varied widely across samples, ranging from 63% to 88%. Multivariate logistic regression analyses reveal sex (female OR=0.59, 95% CI 0.55 to 0.64), trust in medical and scientific experts (OR=1.28, 95% CI 1.22 to 1.34) and worry about the COVID-19 virus (OR=1.47, 95% CI 1.41 to 1.53) as the strongest correlates of stated vaccine acceptance considering pooled data and the most consistent correlates across countries. In a subset of UK samples, we show that these effects are robust after controlling for attitudes towards vaccination in general. Conclusions Our results indicate that the burden of trust largely rests on the shoulders of the scientific and medical community, with implications for how future COVID-19 vaccination information should be communicated to maximise uptake.
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