| 1. |
- Breznau, Nate, et al.
(författare)
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Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty
- 2022
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 119:44
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study explores how researchers analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each teams workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings.
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| 2. |
- Gorostiaga, Felipe, et al.
(författare)
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Assumption Monitoring ofTemporal Task Planning Using Stream Runtime Verification
- 2022
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Ingår i: Lecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics). - Cham : Springer. - 0302-9743 .- 1611-3349.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Temporal task planning uses formal techniques such as reactive synthesis to guarantee that a robot will succeed in its mission. This technique requires certain explicit and implicit assumptions and simplifications about the operating environment of the robot, including its sensors and capabilities. A robot executing a plan can produce a silent mission failure, where the user may believe that the mission goals were achieved when instead the assumptions were violated at runtime. This entails that mitigation and remediation opportunities are missed. Monitoring at runtime can detect complex assumption violations and identify silent failures, but such monitoring requires the ability to describe and detect sophisticated temporal properties together with quantitative and complex data. Additional challenges include (1) ensuring the correctness of the monitors and a correct interplay between the planning execution and the monitors, and (2) that monitors run under constrained environments in terms of resources. In this paper we propose a solution based on stream runtime verification, which offers a high-level declarative language to describe sophisticated monitors together with guarantees on the execution time and memory usage. We show how monitors can be combined with temporal planning not only to monitor assumptions but also to support mitigation and remediation in UAV missions. We demonstrate our approach both in real and simulated flights for some typical mission scenarios.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Menkveld, Albert J., et al.
(författare)
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Nonstandard Errors
- 2024
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Ingår i: JOURNAL OF FINANCE. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0022-1082 .- 1540-6261. ; 79:3, s. 2339-2390
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty-nonstandard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for more reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants.
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| 5. |
- Schneider, Edith, et al.
(författare)
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MicroRNA-708 is a novel regulator of the Hoxa9 program in myeloid cells.
- 2020
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Ingår i: Leukemia. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-5551 .- 0887-6924. ; 34, s. 1253-1265
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are commonly deregulated in acute myeloid leukemia (AML), affecting critical genes not only through direct targeting, but also through modulation of downstream effectors. Homeobox (Hox) genes balance self-renewal, proliferation, cell death, and differentiation in many tissues and aberrant Hox gene expression can create a predisposition to leukemogenesis in hematopoietic cells. However, possible linkages between the regulatory pathways of Hox genes and miRNAs are not yet fully resolved. We identified miR-708 to be upregulated in Hoxa9/Meis1 AML inducing cell lines as well as in AML patients. We further showed Meis1 directly targeting miR-708 and modulating its expression through epigenetic transcriptional regulation. CRISPR/Cas9 mediated knockout of miR-708 in Hoxa9/Meis1 cells delayed disease onset in vivo, demonstrating for the first time a pro-leukemic contribution of miR-708 in this context. Overexpression of miR-708 however strongly impeded Hoxa9 mediated transformation and homing capacity in vivo through modulation of adhesion factors and induction of myeloid differentiation. Taken together, we reveal miR-708, a putative tumor suppressor miRNA and direct target of Meis1, as a potent antagonist of the Hoxa9 phenotype but an effector of transformation in Hoxa9/Meis1. This unexpected finding highlights the yet unexplored role of miRNAs as indirect regulators of the Hox program during normal and aberrant hematopoiesis.
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| 6. |
- Zudaire, Sebastián, et al.
(författare)
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Assumption Monitoring Using Runtime Verification for UAV Temporal Task Plan Executions
- 2021
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Ingår i: Proceedings / IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation. - : IEEE. - 1050-4729.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Temporal task planning guarantees a robot will succeed in its task as long as certain explicit and implicit assumptions about the robot’s operating environment, sensors, and capabilities hold. A robot executing a plan can silently fail to fulfill the task if the assumptions are violated at runtime. Monitoring assumption violations at runtime can flag silent failures and also provide mitigation and remediation opportunities. However, this requires means for describing assumptions combining temporal and quantitative data, automatic construction of correct monitors and ensuring a correct interplay between the planning execution and monitors. In this paper we propose combining temporal planning with stream runtime verification, which offers a high-level language to describe monitors together with guarantees on execution time and memory usage. We demonstrate our approach both in real and simulated flights for some typical mission scenarios.
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| 7. |
- Bell, Taylor, et al.
(författare)
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Nightside clouds and disequilibrium chemistry on the hot Jupiter WASP-43b
- 2024
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Ingår i: Nature Astronomy. - 2397-3366. ; In Press
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Hot Jupiters are among the best-studied exoplanets, but it is still poorly understood how their chemical composition and cloud properties vary with longitude. Theoretical models predict that clouds may condense on the nightside and that molecular abundances can be driven out of equilibrium by zonal winds. Here we report a phase-resolved emission spectrum of the hot Jupiter WASP-43b measured from 5 μm to 12 μm with the JWST’s Mid-Infrared Instrument. The spectra reveal a large day–night temperature contrast (with average brightness temperatures of 1,524 ± 35 K and 863 ± 23 K, respectively) and evidence for water absorption at all orbital phases. Comparisons with three-dimensional atmospheric models show that both the phase-curve shape and emission spectra strongly suggest the presence of nightside clouds that become optically thick to thermal emission at pressures greater than ~100 mbar. The dayside is consistent with a cloudless atmosphere above the mid-infrared photosphere. Contrary to expectations from equilibrium chemistry but consistent with disequilibrium kinetics models, methane is not detected on the nightside (2σ upper limit of 1–6 ppm, depending on model assumptions). Our results provide strong evidence that the atmosphere of WASP-43b is shaped by disequilibrium processes and provide new insights into the properties of the planet’s nightside clouds. However, the remaining discrepancies between our observations and our predictive atmospheric models emphasize the importance of further exploring the effects of clouds and disequilibrium chemistry in numerical models.
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| 8. |
- Brütt, Katharina, et al.
(författare)
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Competition and moral behavior: A meta-analysis of forty-five crowd-sourced experimental designs
- 2023
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS. - : National Academy of Sciences. - 1091-6490 .- 0027-8424. ; 120:23
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Does competition affect moral behavior? This fundamental question has been debated among leading scholars for centuries, and more recently, it has been tested in experimental studies yielding a body of rather inconclusive empirical evidence. A potential source of ambivalent empirical results on the same hypothesis is design heterogeneity-variation in true effect sizes across various reasonable experimental research protocols. To provide further evidence on whether competition affects moral behavior and to examine whether the generalizability of a single experimental study is jeopardized by design heterogeneity, we invited independent research teams to contribute experimental designs to a crowd-sourced project. In a large-scale online data collection, 18,123 experimental participants were randomly allocated to 45 randomly selected experimental designs out of 95 submitted designs. We find a small adverse effect of competition on moral behavior in a meta-analysis of the pooled data. The crowd-sourced design of our study allows for a clean identification and estimation of the variation in effect sizes above and beyond what could be expected due to sampling variance. We find substantial design heterogeneity-estimated to be about 1.6 times as large as the average standard error of effect size estimates of the 45 research designs-indicating that the informativeness and generalizability of results based on a single experimental design are limited. Drawing strong conclusions about the underlying hypotheses in the presence of substantive design heterogeneity requires moving toward much larger data collections on various experimental designs testing the same hypothesis.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Farhan, Muhammad, et al.
(författare)
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Predictive information and maintenance optimization based on decision theory : a case study considering a welded joint in an offshore wind turbine support structure
- 2022
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Ingår i: Structural Health Monitoring. - : SAGE Publications. - 1475-9217 .- 1741-3168. ; 21:1, s. 185-207
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Predictive information and maintenance optimization for deteriorating structures is concerned with scheduling (a) the collection of information by inspection and monitoring and (b) maintenance actions such as repair, replacement, and retrofitting based on updated predictions of the future condition of the structural system. In this article, we consider the problem of jointly identifying—at the beginning of the service life—the optimal inspection time and repair strategy for a generic welded joint in a generic offshore wind turbine structure subject to fatigue. The optimization is performed based on different types of decision analyses including value of information analyses to quantify the expected service life cost encompassing inspection, repair, and fatigue damage for all relevant combinations of inspection time, repair method, and repair time. Based on the analysis of the expected service life cost, the optimal inspection time, repair method, and repair time are identified. Possible repair methods for a welded joint in an offshore environment include welding and grinding, for which detailed models are formulated and utilized to update the joint’s fatigue performance. The decision analyses reveal that an inspection should be scheduled approximately at mid-service life of the welded joint. A repair should be performed in the same year after an indication and measurement of a fatigue crack given an optimal inspection scheduling. This article concludes with a discussion on the results obtained from the decision and value of information analyses.
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