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| 2. |
- Hickler, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
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An ecosystem model-based estimate of changes in water availability differs from water proxies that are commonly used in species distribution models
- 2009
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Ingår i: Global Ecology and Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 1466-8238 .- 1466-822X. ; 18:3, s. 304-313
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To assess whether the water availability measures commonly used in species distribution models might be misleading because they do not account for the hydrological effects of changes in vegetation structure and functioning. Europe. We compared different methods for estimating water availability in species distribution models with the soil water content predicted by a process-based ecosystem model. The latter also accounted for the hydrological effects of dynamic changes in vegetation structure and functioning, including potential physiological effects of increasing CO2. All proxies showed similar patterns of water availability across Europe for current climate, but when projected into the future, the changes in the simpler water availability measures showed no correlation with those projected by the more complex ecosystem model, even if CO2 effects were switched off. Results from species distribution modelling studies concerning future changes in species ranges and biodiversity should be interpreted with caution, and more process-based representations of the water balance of terrestrial ecosystems should be considered within these models.
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| 3. |
- Kühn, Ingolf, et al.
(författare)
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MACIS: Minimisation of and Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts on BiodiverSity
- 2008
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Ingår i: GAIA. - 0940-5550. ; 17:4, s. 393-395
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The recently finished EU funded project MACIS reviewed observed and projected climate change impacts on biodiversity. It assessed mitigation and adaptation options. It also reviewed and developed methods to assess future impacts of climate change on biodiversity including the identification of policy options to prevent and minimise these impacts.
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| 4. |
- Rickebusch, Sophie, et al.
(författare)
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Incorporating the effects of changes in vegetation functioning and CO2 on water availability in plant habitat models
- 2008
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Ingår i: Biology letters. - : The Royal Society. - 1744-9561 .- 1744-957X. ; 4:5, s. 556-559
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The direct effects of CO2 level changes on plant water availability are usually ignored in plant habitat models. We compare traditional proxies for water availability with changes in soil water (fAWC) predicted by a process-based ecosystem model, which simulates changes in vegetation structure and functioning, including CO2 physiological effects. We modelled current and future habitats of 108 European tree species using ensemble forecasting, comprising six habitat models, two model evaluation methods and two climate change scenarios. The fAWC models' projections are generally more conservative. Potential habitats shrink significantly less for boreo-alpine and alpine species. Changes in vegetation functioning and CO2 on plant water availability should therefore be taken into account in plant habitat change projections.
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