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- Smerdon, J. E., et al.
(författare)
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Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era
- 2017
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Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 13:12, s. 1851-1900
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited because of a paucity of modern instrumental observations that are distributed unevenly across the globe and only span parts of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such data coverage is insufficient for characterizing hydroclimate and its associated dynamics because of its multidecadal to centennial variability and highly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal to decadal) hydroclimatic proxies that span all or parts of the Common Era (CE) and paleoclimate simulations from climate models are therefore important tools for augmenting our understanding of hydroclimate variability. In particular, the comparison of the two sources of information is critical for addressing the uncertainties and limitations of both while enriching each of their interpretations. We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructions over the CE and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. A specific review of simulated hydroclimatic changes forced by volcanic events is provided, as is a discussion of expected improvements in estimated radiative forcings, models, and their implementation in the future. Our review of hydroclimatic proxies and last-millennium model simulations is used as the basis for articulating a variety of considerations and best practices for how to perform proxy-model comparisons of CE hydroclimate. This discussion provides a framework for how best to evaluate hydroclimate variability and its associated dynamics using these comparisons and how they can better inform interpretations of both proxy data and model simulations. We subsequently explore means of using proxy-model comparisons to better constrain and characterize future hydroclimate risks. This is explored specifically in the context of several examples that demonstrate how proxy-model comparisons can be used to quantitatively constrain future hydroclimatic risks as estimated from climate model projections.
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- Cook, ER, et al.
(författare)
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Old World megadroughts and pluvials during the Common Era
- 2015
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Ingår i: Science Advances. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 2375-2548. ; 1:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate model projections suggest widespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in the coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other “Old World” climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the “Old World Drought Atlas” (OWDA), a set of year-to-year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era. TheOWDAmatches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes. The OWDA provides new data to determine the causes of Old World drought and wetness and attribute past climate variability to forced and/or internal variability.
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- Cunha, M. S., et al.
(författare)
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Rotation and pulsation in Ap stars : first light results from TESS sectors 1 and 2
- 2019
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Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : OXFORD UNIV PRESS. - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 487:3, s. 3523-3549
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the first results from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) on the rotational and pulsational variability of magnetic chemically peculiar A-type stars. We analyse TESS 2-min cadence data from sectors 1 and 2 on a sample of 83 stars. Five new rapidly oscillating Ap (roAp) stars are announced. One of these pulsates with periods around 4.7 min, making it the shortest period roAp star known to date. Four out of the five new roAp stars are multiperiodic. Three of these and the singly periodic one show the presence of rotational mode splitting. Individual frequencies are provided in all cases. In addition, seven previously known roAp stars are analysed. Additional modes of oscillation are found in some stars, while in others we are able to distinguish the true pulsations from possible aliases present in the ground-based data. We find that the pulsation amplitude in the TESS filter is typically a factor of 6 smaller than that in the B filter, which is usually used for ground-based observations. For four roAp stars we set constraints on the inclination angle and magnetic obliquity, through the application of the oblique pulsator model. We also confirm the absence of roAp-type pulsations down to amplitude limits of 6 and 13 mu mag, respectively, in two of the best characterized non-oscillating Ap (noAp) stars. We announce 27 new rotational variables along with their rotation periods, and provide different rotation periods for seven other stars. Finally, we discuss how these results challenge state-of-the-art pulsation models for roAp stars.
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