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- Thomas, HS, et al.
(författare)
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- 2019
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 3. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 4. |
- Sprovieri, F., et al.
(författare)
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Atmospheric mercury concentrations observed at ground-based monitoring sites globally distributed in the framework of the GMOS network
- 2016
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 16:18, s. 11915-11935
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Long-term monitoring of data of ambient mercury (Hg) on a global scale to assess its emission, transport, atmospheric chemistry, and deposition processes is vital to understanding the impact of Hg pollution on the environment. The Global Mercury Observation System (GMOS) project was funded by the European Commission (http://www.gmos.eu) and started in November 2010 with the overall goal to develop a coordinated global observing system to monitor Hg on a global scale, including a large network of ground-based monitoring stations, ad hoc periodic oceanographic cruises and measurement flights in the lower and upper troposphere as well as in the lower stratosphere. To date, more than 40 ground-based monitoring sites constitute the global network covering many regions where little to no observational data were available before GMOS. This work presents atmospheric Hg concentrations recorded worldwide in the framework of the GMOS project (2010-2015), analyzing Hg measurement results in terms of temporal trends, seasonality and comparability within the network. Major findings highlighted in this paper include a clear gradient of Hg concentrations between the Northern and Southern hemispheres, confirming that the gradient observed is mostly driven by local and regional sources, which can be anthropogenic, natural or a combination of both.
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- Sclafani, F., et al.
(författare)
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PAN-EX : a pooled analysis of two trials of neoadjuvant chemotherapy followed by chemoradiotherapy in MRI-defined, locally advanced rectal cancer
- 2016
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Ingår i: Annals of Oncology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0923-7534 .- 1569-8041. ; 27:8, s. 1557-1565
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This analysis confirms that administering neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) before chemoradiotherapy (CRT) could be a potential option for high-risk, locally advanced rectal cancer. In this setting, MRI tumour regression grade is an independent prognostic factor and, when assessed after NACT, may predict the probability and magnitude of incremental benefit from sequential CRT.EXPERT and EXPERT-C were phase II clinical trials of neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) followed by chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in high-risk, locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). We pooled individual patient data from these trials. The primary objective was overall survival (OS) in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population. Prognostic factors were also analysed. A total of 269 patients were included. Of these, 91.1% completed NACT, 88.1% completed CRT and 240 (89.2%) underwent curative surgery (R0/R1). After a median follow-up of 71.9 months, 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) and OS were 66.4% and 73.3%, respectively. In the group of R0/R1 resection patients, 5-year relapse-free survival (RFS) and OS were 71.6% and 77.2%, respectively, with local recurrence occurring in 5.5% and distant metastases in 20.6% of cases. Significant prognostic factors after multivariate analyses included age, tumour grade and MRI extramural venous invasion (mrEMVI) at baseline, MRI tumour regression grade (mrTRG) after CRT, ypT stage after surgery and adherence to study treatment. mrTRG after NACT was associated with PFS (P = 0.002) and OS (P = 0.018) and appeared to stratify patients based on the incremental benefit from sequential CRT. Among the outcome measures considered, in the subgroup of R0/R1 resection patients, ypT and ypStage had the highest predictive accuracy for RFS (concordance index: 0.6238 and 0.6252, respectively) and OS (concordance index: 0.6094 and 0.6132, respectively). Administering NACT before CRT could be a potential strategy for high-risk LARC. In this setting, mrTRG after CRT is an independent prognostic factor, while mrTRG after NACT should be tested as a parameter for treatment selection in trials of NACT +/- CRT. ypT stage may be a valuable surrogate end point for future phase II trials investigating intensified neoadjuvant treatments in similar patient populations.
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