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- Grandis, S., et al.
(författare)
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Validation of selection function, sample contamination and mass calibration in galaxy cluster samples
- 2020
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Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 498:1, s. 771-798
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We construct and validate the selection function of the MARD-Y3 galaxy cluster sample. This sample was selected through optical follow-up of the 2nd ROSAT faint source catalogue with Dark Energy Survey year 3 data. The selection function is modelled by combining an empirically constructed X-ray selection function with an incompleteness model for the optical follow-up. We validate the joint selection function by testing the consistency of the constraints on the X-ray flux–mass and richness–mass scaling relation parameters derived from different sources of mass information: (1) cross-calibration using South Pole Telescope Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SPT-SZ) clusters, (2) calibration using number counts in X-ray, in optical and in both X-ray and optical while marginalizing over cosmological parameters, and (3) other published analyses. We find that the constraints on the scaling relation from the number counts and SPT-SZ cross-calibration agree, indicating that our modelling of the selection function is adequate. Furthermore, we apply a largely cosmology independent method to validate selection functions via the computation of the probability of finding each cluster in the SPT-SZ sample in the MARD-Y3 sample and vice versa. This test reveals no clear evidence for MARD-Y3 contamination, SPT-SZ incompleteness or outlier fraction. Finally, we discuss the prospects of the techniques presented here to limit systematic selection effects in future cluster cosmological studies.
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- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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- Feng, Shaohong, et al.
(författare)
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Dense sampling of bird diversity increases power of comparative genomics
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 587:7833
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Whole-genome sequencing projects are increasingly populating the tree of life and characterizing biodiversity(1-4). Sparse taxon sampling has previously been proposed to confound phylogenetic inference(5), and captures only a fraction of the genomic diversity. Here we report a substantial step towards the dense representation of avian phylogenetic and molecular diversity, by analysing 363 genomes from 92.4% of bird families-including 267 newly sequenced genomes produced for phase II of the Bird 10,000 Genomes (B10K) Project. We use this comparative genome dataset in combination with a pipeline that leverages a reference-free whole-genome alignment to identify orthologous regions in greater numbers than has previously been possible and to recognize genomic novelties in particular bird lineages. The densely sampled alignment provides a single-base-pair map of selection, has more than doubled the fraction of bases that are confidently predicted to be under conservation and reveals extensive patterns of weak selection in predominantly non-coding DNA. Our results demonstrate that increasing the diversity of genomes used in comparative studies can reveal more shared and lineage-specific variation, and improve the investigation of genomic characteristics. We anticipate that this genomic resource will offer new perspectives on evolutionary processes in cross-species comparative analyses and assist in efforts to conserve species. A dataset of the genomes of 363 species from the Bird 10,000 Genomes Project shows increased power to detect shared and lineage-specific variation, demonstrating the importance of phylogenetically diverse taxon sampling in whole-genome sequencing.
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- Raj, Satish R, et al.
(författare)
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Postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) : Priorities for POTS care and research from a 2019 National Institutes of Health Expert Consensus Meeting - Part 2
- 2021
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Ingår i: Autonomic Neuroscience: Basic & Clinical. - : Elsevier BV. - 1872-7484. ; 235
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The National Institutes of Health hosted a workshop in 2019 to build consensus around the current state of understanding of the pathophysiology of postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) and to identify knowledge gaps that must be addressed to enhance clinical care of POTS patients through research. This second (of two) articles summarizes current knowledge gaps, and outlines the clinical and research priorities for POTS. POTS is a complex, multi-system, chronic disorder of the autonomic nervous system characterized by orthostatic intolerance and orthostatic tachycardia without hypotension. Patients often experience a host of other related disabling symptoms. The functional and economic impacts of this disorder are significant. The pathophysiology remains incompletely understood. Beyond the significant gaps in understanding the disorder itself, there is a paucity of evidence to guide treatment which can contribute to suboptimal care for this patient population. The vast majority of physicians have minimal to no familiarity or training in the assessment and management of POTS. Funding for POTS research remains very low relative to the size of the patient population and impact of the syndrome. In addition to efforts to improve awareness and physician education, an investment in research infrastructure including the development of standardized disease-specific evaluation tools and outcome measures is needed to facilitate effective collaborative research. A national POTS research consortium could facilitate well-controlled multidisciplinary clinical research studies and therapeutic trials. These priorities will require a substantial increase in the number of research investigators and the amount of research funding in this area.
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- Vernino, Steven, et al.
(författare)
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Postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) : State of the science and clinical care from a 2019 National Institutes of Health Expert Consensus Meeting - Part 1
- 2021
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Ingår i: Autonomic Neuroscience: Basic and Clinical. - : Elsevier BV. - 1566-0702. ; 235
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) is a chronic and often disabling disorder characterized by orthostatic intolerance with excessive heart rate increase without hypotension during upright posture. Patients often experience a constellation of other typical symptoms including fatigue, exercise intolerance and gastrointestinal distress. A typical patient with POTS is a female of child-bearing age, who often first displays symptoms in adolescence. The onset of POTS may be precipitated by immunological stressors such as a viral infection. A variety of pathophysiologies are involved in the abnormal postural tachycardia response; however, the pathophysiology of the syndrome is incompletely understood and undoubtedly multifaceted. Clinicians and researchers focused on POTS convened at the National Institutes of Health in July 2019 to discuss the current state of understanding of the pathophysiology of POTS and to identify priorities for POTS research. This article, the first of two articles summarizing the information discussed at this meeting, summarizes the current understanding of this disorder and best practices for clinical care. The evaluation of a patient with suspected POTS should seek to establish the diagnosis, identify co-morbid conditions, and exclude conditions that could cause or mimic the syndrome. Once diagnosed, management typically begins with patient education and non-pharmacologic treatment options. Various medications are often used to address specific symptoms, but there are currently no FDA-approved medications for the treatment of POTS, and evidence for many of the medications used to treat POTS is not robust.
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- Amano, Tatsuya, et al.
(författare)
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Transforming Practice : Checklists for Delivering Change
- 2022
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Ingår i: Transforming Conservation : A Practical Guide to Evidence and Decision Making - A Practical Guide to Evidence and Decision Making. - 9781800648562 - 9781800648586 ; , s. 367-386
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Delivering a revolution in evidence use requires a cultural change across society. For a wide range of groups (practitioners, knowledge brokers, organisations, organisational leaders, policy makers, funders, researchers, journal publishers, the wider conservation community, educators, writers, and journalists), options are described to facilitate a change in practice, and a series of downloadable checklists is provided.
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