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| 2. |
- Alhassan, E., et al.
(författare)
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Bayesian updating for data adjustments and multi-level uncertainty propagation within Total Monte Carlo
- 2020
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Ingår i: Annals of Nuclear Energy. - : PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD. - 0306-4549 .- 1873-2100. ; 139
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this work, a method is proposed for combining differential and integral benchmark experimental data within a Bayesian framework for nuclear data adjustments and multi-level uncertainty propagation, using the Total Monte Carlo method. First, input parameters to basic nuclear physics models implemented within the TALYS code, were randomly varied to produce a large set of random nuclear data files. Next, a probabilistic data assimilation was carried out by computing the likelihood function for each random nuclear data file based first on only differential experimental data and then on integral benchmark data. The individual likelihood functions from the two updates were then combined into a global likelihood function. The proposed method was applied for the adjustment of n+Pb-208 in the fast energy region below 20 MeV. The adjusted file was compared with available experimental data as well as evaluations from the major nuclear data libraries and found to compare favourably.
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| 3. |
- Fischer, Ulrich, et al.
(författare)
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Nuclear data activities of the EUROfusion consortium
- 2020
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Ingår i: ND 2019. - : EDP Sciences. - 9782759891061
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The activities of the EUROfusion consortiums on the development of high quality nuclear data for fusion applications are presented. The activities, implemented in the Power Plant Physics and Technology (PPPT) programme of EUROfusion, include nuclear data evaluations for neutron and deuteron induced reactions and the production of related data libraries which satisfy the needs for nuclear analyses of the DEMO fusion power plant and the IFMIF-DONES neutron source. The activities are closely linked to the JEFF initiative of the NEA Data Bank. The evaluation work is complemented by extensive benchmark, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to check the performance of the evaluated cross-section data and libraries against integral experiments.
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| 4. |
- Flötteröd, Gunnar, 1976-, et al.
(författare)
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Intensity and severity of ship conflicts : an AIS based approach
- 2023
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- There is a lack of standardized methods for socio-economic evaluations within the maritime transport sector. This paper presents a model for analysing and quantifying the intensity and severity of ship conflicts using AIS (Automatic Identification System) data and expert assessments. Also, a case study applying the proposed method to the Southern Gothenburg Archipelago is carried out. The goal is to contribute to cost-benefit analyses within the maritime transport sector by a better understanding of how different actions, such as the widening of fairways or new regulation, impact maritime safety. The importance of validating the model by comparing its results with independent sources of reported maritime accidents is emphasized, and the challenges of using existing accident statistics for this purpose is discussed. The basic model described in the paper can be built upon by differentiating parameters by region and vessel type, account for seasonality etc. Furthermore, a downstream consequence analysis model is needed to enable a monetary valuation of (the consequences of) identified conflicts. Finally, the same principles as laid out here for conflict analysis can also be adopted to the identification of groundings.
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| 5. |
- Gao, Zhihao, et al.
(författare)
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Applying machine learning methods for the analysis of two-dimensional mass spectra
- 2023
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Ingår i: European Physical Journal A. - : Springer Nature. - 1434-6001 .- 1434-601X. ; 59:169
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In a measurement of isomeric yield-ratios in fission, the Phase-Imaging Ion-Cyclotron-Resonance technique, which projects the radial motions of ions in the Penning trap (JYFLTRAP) onto a position-sensitive micro-channel plate detector, has been applied. To obtain the yield ratio, that is the relative population of two states of an isomer pair, a novel analysis procedure has been developed to determine the number of detected ions in each state, as well as corrections for the detector efficiency and decay losses. In order to determine the population of the states in cases where their mass difference is too small to reach full separation, a Bayesian Gaussian Mixture model was implemented. The position-dependent efficiency of the micro-channel plate detector was calibrated by mapping it with 133Cs+ ions, and a Gaussian Process was trained with the position data to construct an efficiency function that could be used to correct the recorded distributions. The obtained numbers of counts of excited and ground-state ions were used to derive the isomeric yield ratio, taking into account decay losses as well as feeding from precursors.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Kos, Bor, et al.
(författare)
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Nuclear Data Uncertainty Propagation in Complex Fusion Geometries
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Nuclear Engineering. - : MDPI. - 2673-4362. ; 1:1, s. 63-69
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The ASUSD program package was designed to automate and simplify the process of deterministic nuclear data sensitivity and uncertainty quantification. The program package couples Denovo, a discrete ordinate 3D transport solver, as part of ADVANTG and SUSD3D, a deterministic first order perturbation theory based Sensitivity/Uncertainty code, using several auxiliary programs used for input data preparation and post processing. Because of the automation employed in ASUSD, it is useful for Sensitivity/Uncertainty analysis of complex fusion geometries. In this paper, ASUSD was used to quantify uncertainties in the JET KN2 irradiation position. The results were compared to previously obtained probabilistic-based uncertainties determined using TALYS-based random nuclear data samples and MCNP in a Total Monte Carlo computation scheme. Results of the two approaches, deterministic and probabilistic, to nuclear data uncertainty propagation are compared and discussed. ASUSD was also used to perform preliminary Sensitivity/Uncertainty (S/U) analyses of three JET3-NEXP streaming benchmark experimental positions (A1, A4 and A7).
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| 9. |
- Kumar, Dinesh, et al.
(författare)
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Nuclear data adjustment using Bayesian inference, diagnostics for model fit and influence of model parameters
- 2020
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Ingår i: ND 2019. - : EDP Sciences. - 9782759891061
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The mathematical models used for nuclear data evaluations contain a large number of theoretical parameters that are usually uncertain. These parameters can be calibrated (or improved) by the information collected from integral/differential experiments. The Bayesian inference technique is used to utilize measurements for data assimilation. The Bayesian approximation is based on the least-square or Monte-Carlo approaches. In this process, the model parameters are optimized In the adjustment process, it is essential to include the analysis related to the influence of model parameters on the adjusted data. In this work, some statistical indicators such as the concept of Cook's distance; Akaike, Bayesian and deviance information criteria; effective degrees of freedom are developed within the CONRAD platform. Further, these indicators are applied to a test case of Gd-155 to evaluate and compare the influence of resonance parameters.
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| 10. |
- Lewis, A.M., et al.
(författare)
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Templates of Expected Measurement Uncertainties for Neutron-Induced Capture and Charged-Particle Production Cross Section Observables
- 2023
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Ingår i: EPJ Nuclear Sciences & Technologies. - : EDP Sciences. - 2491-9292. ; 9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper provides a template of expected uncertainties and correlations for measurements of neutron-induced capture and charged-particle production cross sections. Measurements performed in-beam include total absorption spectroscopy, total energy detection, γ-ray spectroscopy, and direct charged-particle detection. Offline measurements include activation analysis and accelerator mass spectrometry. The information needed for proper use of the datasets in resonance region and high energy region evaluations is described, and recommended uncertainties are provided when specific values are not available for a dataset.
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