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- 2017
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 96:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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- Ade, P. A. R., et al.
(författare)
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Planck 2015 results XVIII. Background geometry and topology of the Universe
- 2016
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 594
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Maps of cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization from the 2015 release of Planck data provide the highest quality full-sky view of the surface of last scattering available to date. This enables us to detect possible departures from a globally isotropic cosmology. We present the first searches using CMB polarization for correlations induced by a possible non-trivial topology with a fundamental domain that intersects, or nearly intersects, the last-scattering surface (at comoving distance chi(rec)), both via a direct scan for matched circular patterns at the intersections and by an optimal likelihood calculation for specific topologies. We specialize to flat spaces with cubic toroidal (T3) and slab (T1) topologies, finding that explicit searches for the latter are sensitive to other topologies with antipodal symmetry. These searches yield no detection of a compact topology with a scale below the diameter of the last-scattering surface. The limits on the radius R-i of the largest sphere inscribed in the fundamental domain (at log-likelihood ratio Delta ln L > -5 relative to a simply-connected flat Planck best-fit model) are: R-i > 0.97 chi(rec) for the T3 cubic torus; and R-i > 0.56 chi(rec) for the T1 slab. The limit for the T3 cubic torus from the matched-circles search is numerically equivalent, R-i > 0.97 chi(rec) at 99% confidence level from polarization data alone. We also perform a Bayesian search for an anisotropic global Bianchi VIIh geometry. In the non-physical setting, where the Bianchi cosmology is decoupled from the standard cosmology, Planck temperature data favour the inclusion of a Bianchi component with a Bayes factor of at least 2.3 units of log-evidence. However, the cosmological parameters that generate this pattern are in strong disagreement with those found from CMB anisotropy data alone. Fitting the induced polarization pattern for this model to the Planck data requires an amplitude of -0.10 +/- 0.04 compared to the value of + 1 if the model were to be correct. In the physically motivated setting, where the Bianchi parameters are coupled and fitted simultaneously with the standard cosmological parameters, we find no evidence for a Bianchi VIIh cosmology and constrain the vorticity of such models to (omega/H)(0) < 7.6 x 10(-10) (95% CL).
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- Ade, P. A. R., et al.
(författare)
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XXI. The integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect
- 2016
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 594
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents a study of the integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect from the Planck 2015 temperature and polarization data release. This secondary cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy caused by the large-scale time-evolving gravitational potential is probed from different perspectives. The CMB is cross-correlated with different large-scale structure (LSS) tracers: radio sources from the NVSS catalogue; galaxies from the optical SDSS and the infrared WISE surveys; and the Planck 2015 convergence lensing map. The joint cross-correlation of the CMB with the tracers yields a detection at 4 sigma where most of the signal-to-noise is due to the Planck lensing and the NVSS radio catalogue. In fact, the ISW effect is detected from the Planck data only at approximate to 3 sigma (through the ISW-lensing bispectrum), which is similar to the detection level achieved by combining the cross-correlation signal coming from all the galaxy catalogues mentioned above. We study the ability of the ISW effect to place constraints on the dark-energy parameters; in particular, we show that Omega(Lambda) is detected at more than 3 sigma. This cross-correlation analysis is performed only with the Planck temperature data, since the polarization scales available in the 2015 release do not permit significant improvement of the CMB-LSS cross-correlation detectability. Nevertheless, the Planck polarization data are used to study the anomalously large ISW signal previously reported through the aperture photometry on stacked CMB features at the locations of known superclusters and supervoids, which is in conflict with Lambda CDM expectations. We find that the current Planck polarization data do not exclude that this signal could be caused by the ISW effect. In addition, the stacking of the Planck lensing map on the locations of superstructures exhibits a positive cross-correlation with these large-scale structures. Finally, we have improved our previous reconstruction of the ISW temperature fluctuations by combining the information encoded in all the previously mentioned LSS tracers. In particular, we construct a map of the ISW secondary anisotropies and the corresponding uncertainties map, obtained from simulations. We also explore the reconstruction of the ISW anisotropies caused by the large-scale structure traced by the 2MASS Photometric Redshift Survey (2MPZ) by directly inverting the density field into the gravitational potential field.
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| 10. |
- De Rosa, G., et al.
(författare)
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Velocity-resolved Reverberation Mapping of Five Bright Seyfert 1 Galaxies
- 2018
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 866:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the first results from a reverberation-mapping campaign undertaken during the first half of 2012, with additional data on one active galactic nucleus (AGN) (NGC 3227) from a 2014 campaign. Our main goals are (1) to determine the black hole masses from continuum-H beta reverberation signatures, and (2) to look for velocity-dependent time delays that might be indicators of the gross kinematics of the broad-line region. We successfully measure H beta time delays and black hole masses for five AGNs, four of which have previous reverberation mass measurements. The values measured here are in agreement with earlier estimates, though there is some intrinsic scatter beyond the formal measurement errors. We observe velocity-dependent H beta lags in each case, and find that the patterns have changed in the intervening five years for three AGNs that were also observed in 2007.
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