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Environmental Suita...
Environmental Suitability of Vibrio Infections in a Warming Climate : An Early Warning System
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Semenza, Jan C. (författare)
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Trinanes, Joaquin (författare)
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- Lohr, Wolfgang (författare)
- Umeå universitet,Epidemiologi och global hälsa,Umeå Centre for Global Health Research
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Sudre, Bertrand (författare)
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Löfdahl, Margareta (författare)
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Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime (författare)
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Nichols, Gordon L. (författare)
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- Rocklöv, Joacim (författare)
- Umeå universitet,Epidemiologi och global hälsa,Umeå Centre for Global Health Research
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(creator_code:org_t)
- National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS), 2017
- 2017
- Engelska.
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Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Health Perspectives. - : National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS). - 0091-6765 .- 1552-9924. ; 125:10
- Relaterad länk:
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
Ämnesord
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- BACKGROUND: Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST). OBJECTIVES: Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios. METHODS: The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. RESULTS: The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16 degrees C revealed a relative risk (RR) = 1.14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p=0.024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades. CONCLUSIONS: This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st ritui due to climate change.
Ämnesord
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Hälsovetenskap -- Folkhälsovetenskap, global hälsa, socialmedicin och epidemiologi (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Health Sciences -- Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology (hsv//eng)
- MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Medicinska och farmaceutiska grundvetenskaper -- Farmakologi och toxikologi (hsv//swe)
- MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Basic Medicine -- Pharmacology and Toxicology (hsv//eng)
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