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- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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- Kwong, Y. L., et al.
(författare)
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Sequential chemotherapy/radiotherapy was comparable with concurrent chemoradiotherapy for stage I/II NK/T-cell lymphoma
- 2018
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Ingår i: Annals of Oncology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0923-7534. ; 29:1, s. 256-263
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: In stage I/II natural killer (NK)/T-cell lymphoma, concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) had previously been shown to result in superior outcome compared with anthracycline-containing regimens, which have since been considered ineffective. The role of CCRT in comparison with approaches employing nonanthracycline-containing chemotherapy (CT) and sequential radiotherapy (RT) in such patients remains to be defined. Patients and methods: Three hundred and three untreated patients (207 men, 96 women; median age: 51, 18-86 years) with stage I/II NK/T-cell lymphoma who had received nonanthracycline-containing regimens were collected from an international consortium and retrospectively analyzed. Treatment included single modality (CT and RT), sequential modalities (CT+RT; RT+CT) and concurrent modalities (CCRT; CCRT+CT). The impact of clinicopathologic parameters and types of treatment on complete response (CR) rate, progression-free-survival (PFS) and overall-survival (OS) was evaluated. Results: For CR, stage (P=0.027), prognostic index for NK/T-cell lymphoma (PINK) (P=0.026) and types of initial treatment (P=0.011) were significant prognostic factors on multivariate analysis. On Cox regression analysis, ECOG performance score (P=0.021) and PINK-EBV DNA (PINK-E) (P=0.002) significantly impacted on PFS; whereas ECOG performance score (P=0.008) and stage (P<0.001) significantly impacted on OS. For comparing CCRT6CT and sequential CT+RT, CCRT6CT patients (n=190) were similar to sequential CT+RT patients (n=54) in all evaluated clinicopathologic parameters except two significantly superior features (higher proportion of undetectable circulating EBV DNA on diagnosis and lower PINK-E scores). Despite more favorable pre-treatment characteristics, CCRT6CT patients had CR rate, PFS and OS comparable with sequential CT+RT patients on multivariate and Cox regression analyses. Conclusions: In stage I/II NK/T-cell lymphomas, when effective chemotherapeutic regimens were used, CCRT and sequential CT+RT gave similar outcome.
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