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Sökning: WFRF:(Sung Ming Chien) > (2020-2023)

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1.
  • Grossmann, Igor, et al. (författare)
  • Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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2.
  • Lin, Wei Ju, et al. (författare)
  • Deterministic Loading of Microwaves onto an Artificial Atom Using a Time-Reversed Waveform
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Nano Letters. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 1530-6992 .- 1530-6984. ; 22:20, s. 8137-8142
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Loading quantum information deterministically onto a quantum node is an important step toward a quantum network. Here, we demonstrate that coherent-state microwave photons with an optimal temporal waveform can be efficiently loaded onto a single superconducting artificial atom in a semi-infinite one-dimensional (1D) transmission-line waveguide. Using a weak coherent state (the number of photons (N) contained in the pulse ≪1) with an exponentially rising waveform, whose time constant matches the decoherence time of the artificial atom, we demonstrate a loading efficiency of 94.2% ± 0.7% from 1D semifree space to the artificial atom. The high loading efficiency is due to time-reversal symmetry: the overlap between the incoming wave and the time-reversed emitted wave is up to 97.1% ± 0.4%. Our results open up promising applications in realizing quantum networks based on waveguide quantum electrodynamics.
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