| 1. |
|
|
| 2. |
|
|
| 3. |
|
|
| 4. |
- Schumacher, A. E., et al.
(författare)
-
Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
- 2024
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 403:10440, s. 1989-2056
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
|
|
| 5. |
- Abzhandadze, Tamar, 1980, et al.
(författare)
-
Barriers to cognitive screening in acute stroke units
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 11:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cognitive impairment is common after stroke. However, not all patients with stroke undergo cognitive screening, despite recommendations. The aim of this retrospective, explorative study was to examine the barriers to cognitive screening in acute stroke units. Data were retrieved from two Swedish Stroke registries. The outcome variable was cognitive screening during the stay at acute stroke units. Forty-three candidate explanatory variables were considered for analysis, encompassing sociodemographic factors and stroke-related outcomes during the stay at acute stroke units. The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator and decision-tree methods were used. Of the 1120 patients (56% male, mean age: 72 years, 50% with mild stroke), 44% did not undergo cognitive screening. Walking 10 m post-stroke was the most important attribute for decisions regarding cognitive screening. The classification accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity of the model were 70% (95% CI 63-75%), 71% (63-78%), and 67% (55-77%), respectively. Patient-related parameters that influenced cognitive screening with a valid and reliable screening instrument in acute stroke units included new stroke during the hospitalisation, aphasia at admission, mobility problems, impaired verbal output skills, and planned discharge to another care facility. The barriers to cognitive screening were both patient- and organisation-related, suggesting the need for patient-tailored cognitive screening tools as well as the implementation and systematic adherence to guidelines.
|
|
| 6. |
|
|
| 7. |
- Abzhandadze, Tamar, 1980, et al.
(författare)
-
Development of a short-form Swedish version of the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (s-MoCA-SWE): protocol for a cross-sectional study
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Bmj Open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 11:5
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction Short forms of the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) have allowed quick cognitive screening. However, none of the available short forms has been created or validated in a Swedish sample of patients with stroke. The aim is to develop a short-form Swedish version of the MoCA (s-MoCA-SWE) in a sample of patients with acute and subacute stroke. The specific objectives are: (1) to identify a subgroup of MoCA items that have the potential to form the s-MoCA-SWE; (2) to determine the optimal cut-off value of s-MoCA-SWE for predicting cognitive impairment and (3) and to compare the psychometric properties of s-MoCA-SWE with those of previously developed MoCA short forms. Methods and analysis This is a statistical analysis protocol for a cross-sectional study. The study sample will comprise patients from Vaststroke, a local stroke registry from Gothenburg, Sweden and Efficacy oF Fluoxetine-a randomisEd Controlled Trial in Stroke (EFFECTS), a randomised controlled trial in Sweden. The s-MoCA-SWE will be developed by using exploratory factor analysis and the boosted regression tree algorithm. The cut-off value of s-MoCA-SWE for impaired cognition will be determined based on binary logistic regression analysis. The psychometric properties of s-MoCA-SWE will be compared with those of other MoCA short forms by using cross-tabulation and area under the receiving operating characteristic curve analyses. Ethics and dissemination The Vaststroke study has received ethical approval from the Regional Ethical Review Board in Gothenburg (346-16) and the Swedish Ethical Review Authority (amendment 2019-04299). The handling of data generated within the framework of quality registers does not require written informed consent from patients. The EFFECTS study has received ethical approval from the Stockholm Ethics Committee (2013/1265-31/2 on 30 September 2013). All participants provided written consent. Results will be published in an international, peer-reviewed journal, presented at conferences and communicated to clinical practitioners in local meetings and seminars.
|
|
| 8. |
- Abzhandadze, Tamar, 1980, et al.
(författare)
-
DEVELOPMENT OF A SWEDISH SHORT VERSION OF THE MONTREAL COGNITIVE ASSESSMENT FOR COGNITIVE SCREENING IN PATIENTS WITH STROKE
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Journal of Rehabilitation Medicine. - : Medical Journals Sweden. - 1650-1977 .- 1651-2081. ; 55
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: The primary objective was to develop a Swedish short version of the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (s-MoCA-SWE) for use with patients with stroke. Secondary objectives were to iden-tify an optimal cut-off value for the s-MoCA-SWE to screen for cognitive impairment and to compare its sensitivity with that of previously developed short forms of the Montreal Cognitive Assessment. Design: Cross-sectional study.Subjects/patients: Patients admitted to stroke and rehabilitation units in hospitals across Sweden. Methods: Cognition was screened using the Mont-real Cognitive Assessment. Working versions of the s-MoCA-SWE were developed using supervised and unsupervised algorithms.Results: Data from 3,276 patients were analysed (40% female, mean age 71.5 years, 56% minor stroke at admission). The suggested s-MoCA-SWE compri-sed delayed recall, visuospatial/executive function, serial 7, fluency, and abstraction. The aggregated scores ranged from 0 to 16. A threshold for impai-red cognition & LE; 12 had a sensitivity of 97.41 (95% confidence interval, 96.64-98.03) and positive pre-dictive value of 90.30 (95% confidence interval 89.23-91.27). The s-MoCA-SWE had a higher abso-lute sensitivity than that of other short forms.Conclusion: The s-MoCA-SWE (threshold & LE; 12) can detect post-stroke cognitive issues. The high sensitivity makes it a potentially useful "rule-out" tool that may eliminate severe cognitive impair-ment in people with stoke.
|
|
| 9. |
- Abzhandadze, Tamar, 1980, et al.
(författare)
-
Feasibility of Cognitive Functions Screened With the Montreal Cognitive Assessment in Determining ADL Dependence Early After Stroke
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Frontiers in Neurology. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 1664-2295. ; 9
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: To investigate the feasibility of assessing cognitive function using the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) given 36-48 h post stroke to explain dependence in activities of daily living (ADL). Methods: This is a cross-sectional, exploratory study. Cognitive function and basic ADL were assessed with the MoCA and the Barthel Index (BI), respectively, within 36-48 h of admission. Neurological functions were assessed with the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) upon admittance to the hospital. Binary logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the feasibility of the MoCA in explaining ADL dependence. Results: Data were available for 550 patients (42% females, mean age 69 years). Moderate correlations (r(s) > +0.30, p < 0.001) were found between the total score on the BI, MoCA, and visuospatial/executive functions. The regression analysis model including only MoCA as an independent variable had a high sensitivity for explaining ADL dependence. However, the model with independent variables of MoCA, NIHSS, and age had the best area under the curve value (0.74). Conclusions: Cognitive functions assessed with the MoCA partly explain ADL dependence 36-48 h post stroke. Stroke-related neurological deficits and age should be additional considerations.
|
|
| 10. |
- Abzhandadze, Tamar, 1980, et al.
(författare)
-
NIHSS is not enough for cognitive screening in acute stroke: A cross-sectional, retrospective study
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 10:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The aim of this study was to investigate whether the cognitive subscale of the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), the Cog-4, can detect cognitive deficits in acute stroke. This was a cross-sectional, retrospective study. The study sample consisted of people with stroke enrolled in an acute stroke unit. The index test Cog-4 was calculated based on admission NIHSS score. The reference standard instrument, the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA), was performed within 36–48 h of admission. Non-parametric statistics were used for data analyses. The study included 531 participants with a mean age of 69 years. The Cog-4 failed to identify cognitive deficits in 65%, 58%, and 53% of patients when the MoCA thresholds for impaired cognition were set at ≤25 p, ≤23 p, and ≤19 p, respectively, were chosen for impaired cognition. The agreement between the Cog-4 and the MoCA was poor; Cohen’s kappa was from −0.210 to −0.109, depending on the MoCA cut-offs. The sensitivity of the Cog-4 was 35%, 42% and 48% for the MoCA thresholds for impaired cognition ≤25, ≤23 and ≤19 points, respectively. The Cog-4 has a limited ability to identify cognitive deficits in acute stroke. More structured and comprehensive tests should be employed as diagnostic tools. © 2020, The Author(s).
|
|
