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- Pennells, Lisa, et al.
(författare)
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Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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| 2. |
- Dam, Veerle, et al.
(författare)
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Association of menopausal characteristics and risk of coronary heart disease : A pan-European case-cohort analysis
- 2019
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Ingår i: International Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press. - 0300-5771 .- 1464-3685. ; 48:4, s. 1275-1285
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Earlier age at menopause has been associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), but the shape of association and role of established cardiovascular risk factors remain unclear. Therefore, we examined the associations between menopausal characteristics and CHD risk; the shape of the association between age at menopause and CHD risk; and the extent to which these associations are explained by established cardiovascular risk factors.Methods: We used data from EPIC-CVD, a case-cohort study, which includes data from 23 centres from 10 European countries. We included only women, of whom 10 880 comprise the randomly selected sub-cohort, supplemented with 4522 cases outside the sub-cohort. We conducted Prentice-weighted Cox proportional hazards regressions with age as the underlying time scale, stratified by country and adjusted for relevant confounders.Results: After confounder and intermediate adjustment, post-menopausal women were not at higher CHD risk compared with pre-menopausal women. Among post-menopausal women, earlier menopause was linearly associated with higher CHD risk [HRconfounder and intermediate adjusted per-year decrease = 1.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.01-1.03, p = 0.001]. Women with a surgical menopause were at higher risk of CHD compared with those with natural menopause (HRconfounder-adjusted = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.10-1.42, p < 0.001), but this attenuated after additional adjustment for age at menopause and intermediates (HR = 1.12, 95% CI = 0.96-1.29, p = 0.15). A proportion of the association was explained by cardiovascular risk factors.Conclusions: Earlier and surgical menopause were associated with higher CHD risk. These associations could partially be explained by differences in conventional cardiovascular risk factors. These women might benefit from close monitoring of cardiovascular risk factors and disease.
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| 3. |
- Key, Timothy J., et al.
(författare)
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Consumption of Meat, Fish, Dairy Products, Eggs and Risk of Ischemic Heart Disease : A Prospective Study of 7198 Incident Cases Among 409,885 Participants in the Pan-European EPIC Cohort
- 2019
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Ingår i: Circulation. - : Wolters Kluwer. - 0009-7322 .- 1524-4539. ; 139:25, s. 2835-2845
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty about the relevance of animal foods to the etiology of ischemic heart disease (IHD). We examined meat, fish, dairy products and eggs and risk for IHD in the pan-European EPIC cohort.METHODS: A prospective study of 409,885 men and women in nine European countries. Diet was assessed using validated questionnaires, calibrated using 24-hour recalls. Lipids and blood pressure were measured in a subsample. During 12.6 years mean follow up, 7198 participants had a myocardial infarction or died from IHD. The relationships of animal foods with risk were examined using Cox regression with adjustment for other animal foods and relevant covariates.RESULTS: The hazard ratio (HR) for IHD was 1.19 (95% CI 1.06-1.33) for a 100 g/d increment in intake of red and processed meat, and this remained significant after excluding the first 4 years of follow-up (HR 1.25 [1.09-1.42]). Risk was inversely associated with intakes of yogurt (HR 0.93 [0.89-0.98] per 100 g/d increment), cheese (HR 0.92 [0.86-0.98] per 30 g/d increment) and eggs (HR 0.93 [0.88-0.99] per 20 g/d increment); the associations with yogurt and eggs were attenuated and non-significant after excluding the first 4 years of follow-up. Risk was not significantly associated with intakes of poultry, fish or milk. In analyses modelling dietary substitutions, replacement of 100 kcal/d from red and processed meat with 100 kcal/d from fatty fish, yogurt, cheese or eggs was associated with approximately 20% lower risk of IHD. Consumption of red and processed meat was positively associated with serum non-HDL cholesterol concentration and systolic blood pressure, and consumption of cheese was inversely associated with serum non-HDL cholesterol.CONCLUSIONS: Risk for IHD was positively associated with consumption of red and processed meat, and inversely associated with consumption of yogurt, cheese and eggs, although the associations with yogurt and eggs may be influenced by reverse causation bias. It is not clear whether the associations with red and processed meat and cheese reflect causality, but they were consistent with the associations of these foods with plasma non-HDL cholesterol, and for red and processed meat with systolic blood pressure, which could mediate such effects.
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