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- Tehler, Henrik, et al.
(author)
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Application of supersoft decision theory in fire risk assessment
- 2004
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In: Journal of Fire Protection Engineering. - : SAGE Publications. - 1042-3915. ; 14:1, s. 55-84
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The application of Supersoft Decision theory (SSD) to fire safety problems, and of decision analysis in general to decisions involving a high degree of epistemic uncertainty, are discussed. SSD and two traditional decision analytic methods employed earlier within the context of fire engineering are compared, particularly regarding how uncertainties are dealt with and the robustness of decisions – robustness concerning the likelihood that the alternative adjudged to be best will change when a reasonable degree of change in assessments of either the probabilities or the utilities involved occurs. Substantial differences between the three methods in decision robustness were noted. It was found that, since traditional decision analysis involving precise probability and utility values gives no indication of robustness, it can lead to incorrect conclusions, making it unsuitable in the present context. It is argued that methods not providing the decision maker with information on decision robustness are unsuitable in situations involving a high degree of epistemic uncertainty. A procedure is suggested involving use of Supersoft Decision theory and extended decision analysis to facilitate the choice between different fire protection alternatives for the case of a specific building.
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| 5. |
- Tehler, Henrik, et al.
(author)
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Decision analysis concerned with investments in fire safety
- 2003
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In: Fire Safety Science - Proceedings of the Seventh International Symposium. ; , s. 345-356
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Decision analysis concerned with investments in fire safety is discussed. Particular attention is directed at the treatment of uncertainty, the evaluation of consequences, and the choice of a decision rule for use in this context. An approach involving use of a decision rule based on the principle of maximizing expected utility, together with a complementary evaluation of the decision alternatives, is described, the latter involving analysis of the uncertainty regarding the probabilities and consequences of different fire scenarios.
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- Tehler, Henrik
(author)
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Decision Analysis in Fire Safety Engineering - Analysing Investments in Fire Safety
- 2003
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- The application of decision analytical methods to the evaluation of investments in fire safety was investigated, particularly with the aim of being able to suggest a method for analysing a specific investment in fire safety for a specific factory. Attention was directed above all at the handling of cases of large epistemic uncertainty regarding both probabilities and utilities, Bayesian decision theory serving as a basis for the development of the method. Two extensions of the decision rule used in Bayesian decision theory (the principle of maximising expected utility) were suggested for use in the present context. Together with a model for calculating the expected utility of a specific investment, they provide an evaluatory framework for the analysis of investments in fire safety. The major contributions of the thesis to the area of decision analysis within fire safety engineering are that it provides a better understanding of the use of different decision analytical approaches in a context such as the present one, that it highlights problems of evaluation when large epistemic uncertainties are present, that it suggests a solution for use in such a case, and that it suggests a way in which the reduction in risk can be evaluated in terms of monetary value.
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| 7. |
- Tehler, Henrik
(author)
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Decision Making in Fire Risk Management
- 2001
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Licentiate thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Various normative decision theories are discussed in the context of fire risk management. A method suitable for practical decision making in respect to fire safety investments is presented and exemplified. The method involves the use of second-order probabilities to represent uncertainty regarding probability values. A discussion on the use of Bayes theorem in combination with decision analysis is also included. The two case studies the thesis includes involve decisions regarding investments in water sprinkler systems for facilities belonging to the companies ABB and Avesta Sheffield, respectively. Calculations of the net present value of these investments are dealt with in the case studies.
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| 9. |
- Tehler, Henrik
(author)
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Investment appraisal using quantitative risk analysis
- 2002
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In: Journal of Hazardous Materials. - 1873-3336. ; 93:1, s. 77-91
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Investment appraisal concerned with investments in fire safety systems is discussed. Particular attention is directed at evaluating, in terms of the Bayesian decision theory, the risk reduction that investment in a fire safety system involves. It is shown how the monetary value of the change from a building design without any specific fire protection system to one including such a system can be estimated by use of quantitative risk analysis, the results of which are expressed in terms of a Risk-adjusted net present value. This represents the intrinsic monetary value of investing in the fire safety system. The method suggested is exemplified by a case study performed in an Avesta Sheffield factory. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
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