| 1. |
- Blicharska, Malgorzata, 1979-, et al.
(author)
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Environmental Conservation Challenges in a multi-sector system
- 2018
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In: Biodiverse. - Uppsala : Centrum för biologisk mångfald. - 1401-5064 .- 2002-3820. ; 23:4, s. 16-17
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Journal article (pop. science, debate, etc.)abstract
- Many sectors in society are involved in nature conservation issues, like agriculture, forestry and land-use planning. Coherence on a political level between these sectors is getting more and more important, not only to avoid conflict, but also to discover and develop synergies between the sectors. In our study, we see that nature conservation could be a tool for strengthening other sectors.
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| 2. |
- Hakala, Kirsti, et al.
(author)
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Hydrological Modeling of Climate Change Impacts
- 2019
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In: Encyclopedia of Water. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 9781119300755 - 9781119300762
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Book chapter (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Hydrological climate change impact modeling is a commonly used approach to quantify potential future changes in streamflow. In this article, we present an introduction to the main steps involved in the production of such streamflow projections. We review commonly used modeling approaches to quantify climate change impacts on water resources, describe the main sources of uncertainty in hydrological projections and how to characterize them, and discuss best practices. The supplementary material includes a guide to perform typical data processing tasks involved in the production of hydrological projections. We also provide material to support teaching activities related to hydrological climate change impact modeling. The goal of this article is to support studies on climate change impacts on hydrological systems by providing guidance on working with the climate-hydrology modeling chain.
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| 3. |
- Jaramillo, Fernando, et al.
(author)
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Dominant effect of increasing forest biomass on evapotranspiration: Interpretations of movement in Budyko space
- 2018
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In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 22, s. 567-580
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- During the last 6 decades, forest biomass has increased in Sweden mainly due to forest management, with a possible increasing effect on evapotranspiration. However, increasing global CO 2 concentrations may also trigger physiological water-saving responses in broadleaf tree species, and to a lesser degree in some needleleaf conifer species, inducing an opposite effect. Additionally, changes in other forest attributes may also affect evapotranspiration. In this study, we aimed to detect the dominating effect(s) of forest change on evapotranspiration by studying changes in the ratio of actual evapotranspiration to precipitation, known as the evaporative ratio, during the period 1961-2012. We first used the Budyko framework of water and energy availability at the basin scale to study the hydroclimatic movements in Budyko space of 65 temperate and boreal basins during this period. We found that movements in Budyko space could not be explained by climatic changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in 60% of these basins, suggesting the existence of other dominant drivers of hydroclimatic change. In both the temperate and boreal basin groups studied, a negative climatic effect on the evaporative ratio was counteracted by a positive residual effect. The positive residual effect occurred along with increasing standing forest biomass in the temperate and boreal basin groups, increasing forest cover in the temperate basin group and no apparent changes in forest species composition in any group. From the three forest attributes, standing forest biomass was the one that could explain most of the variance of the residual effect in both basin groups. These results further suggest that the water-saving response to increasing CO 2 in these forests is either negligible or overridden by the opposite effect of the increasing forest biomass. Thus, we conclude that increasing standing forest biomass is the dominant driver of long-term and large-scale evapotranspiration changes in Swedish forests.
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| 4. |
- Nijp, Jelmer J., et al.
(author)
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Including hydrological self-regulating processes in peatland models : effects on peatmoss drought projections
- 2017
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In: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 580, s. 1389-1400
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The water content of the topsoil is one of the key factors controlling biogeochemical processes, greenhouse gas emissions and biosphere - atmosphere interactions in many ecosystems, particularly in northern peatlands. In these wetland ecosystems, the water content of the photosynthetic active peatmoss layer is crucial for ecosystem functioning and carbon sequestration, and is sensitive to future shifts in rainfall and drought characteristics. Current peatland models differ in the degree in which hydrological feedbacks are included, but how this affects peatmoss drought projections is unknown. The aim of this paper was to systematically test whether the level of hydrological detail in models could bias projections of water content and drought stress for peatmoss in northern peatlands using downscaled projections for rainfall and potential evapotranspiration in the current (1991-2020) and future climate (2061-2090). We considered four model variants that either include or exclude moss (rain)water storage and peat volume change, as these are two central processes in the hydrological self-regulation of peatmoss carpets. Model performance was validated using field data of a peatland in northern Sweden. Including moss water storage as well as peat volume change resulted in a significant improvement of model performance, despite the extra parameters added. The best performance was achieved if both processes were included. Including moss water storage and peat volume change consistently reduced projected peatmoss drought frequency with >50%, relative to the model excluding both proces'ses. Projected peatmoss drought frequency in the growing season was 17% smaller under future climate than current climate, but was unaffected by including the hydrological self-regulating processes. Our results suggest that ignoring these two fine-scale processes important in hydrological self-regulation of northern peatlands will have large consequences for projected climate change impact on ecosystem processes related to topsoil water content, such as greenhouse gas emissions. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 5. |
- Oni, Stephen, et al.
(author)
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Using dry and wet year hydroclimatic extremes to guide future hydrologic projections
- 2016
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In: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1027-5606 .- 1607-7938. ; 20, s. 2811-2825
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- There are growing numbers of studies on climate change impacts on forest hydrology, but limited attempts have been made to use current hydroclimatic variabilities to constrain projections of future climatic conditions. Here we used historical wet and dry years as a proxy for expected future extreme conditions in a boreal catchment. We showed that runoff could be underestimated by at least 35% when dry year parameterizations were used for wet year conditions. Uncertainty analysis showed that behavioural parameter sets from wet and dry years separated mainly on precipitation-related parameters and to a lesser extent on parameters related to landscape processes, while uncertainties inherent in climate models (as opposed to differences in calibration or performance metrics) appeared to drive the overall uncertainty in runoff projections under dry and wet hydroclimatic conditions. Hydrologic model calibration for climate impact studies could be based on years that closely approximate anticipated conditions to better constrain uncertainty in projecting extreme conditions in boreal and temperate regions.
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| 6. |
- Teutschbein, Claudia, 1985-, et al.
(author)
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Future Riverine Inorganic Nitrogen Load to the Baltic Sea From Sweden : An Ensemble Approach to Assessing Climate Change Effects
- 2017
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In: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 31:11, s. 1674-1701
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The dramatic increase of bioreactive nitrogen entering the Earth’s ecosystems continues toattract growing attention. Increasingly large quantities of inorganic nitrogen are flushed from land towater, accelerating freshwater, and marine eutrophication. Multiple, interacting, and potentiallycountervailing drivers control the future hydrologic export of inorganic nitrogen. In this paper, we attempt toresolve these land-water interactions across boreal/hemiboreal Sweden in the face of a changing climatewith help of a versatile modeling framework to maximize the information value of existing measurementtime series. We combined 6,962 spatially distributed water chemistry observations spread over 31 years withdaily streamflow and air temperature records. An ensemble of climate model projections, hydrologicalsimulations, and several parameter parsimonious regression models was employed to project future riverineinorganic nitrogen dynamics across Sweden. The median predicted increase in total inorganic nitrogenexport from Sweden (2061–2090) due to climate change was 14% (interquartile range 0–29%), based on theensemble of 7,500 different predictions for each study site. The overall export as well as the seasonal patternof inorganic nitrogen loads in a future climate are mostly influenced by longer growing seasons and morewinter flow, which offset the expected decline in spring flood. The predicted increase in inorganic nitrogenloading due to climate change means that the political efforts for reducing anthropogenic nitrogen inputsneed to be increased if ambitions for reducing the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea are to be achieved.
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| 7. |
- Teutschbein, Claudia, 1985-, et al.
(author)
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Simulating streamflow in ungauged basins under a changing climate : The importance of landscape characteristics
- 2018
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In: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 561, s. 160-178
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In this paper we explored how landscape characteristics such as topography, geology, soils and land cover influence the way catchments respond to changing climate conditions. Based on an ensemble of 15 regional climate models bias-corrected with a distribution-mapping approach, present and future streamflow in 14 neighboring and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden was simulated with the HBV model. We established functional relationships between a range of landscape characteristics and projected changes in streamflow signatures. These were then used to analyze hydrological consequences of physical perturbations in a hypothetically ungauged basin in a climate change context. Our analysis showed a strong connection between the forest cover extent and the sensitivity of different components of a catchment's hydrological regime to changing climate conditions. This emphasizes the need to redefine forestry goals and practices in advance of climate change-related risks and uncertainties.
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| 8. |
- Wallin, Marcus, 1979-, et al.
(author)
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Carbon dioxide and methane emissions of Swedish low-order streams : a national estimate and lessons learnt from more than a decade of observations
- 2018
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In: Limnology and Oceanography Letters. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2378-2242. ; 3:3, s. 156-167
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Low-order streams are suggested to dominate the atmospheric CO2 source of all inland waters. Yet, many large-scale stream estimates suffer from methods not designed for gas emission determination and rarely include other greenhouse gases such as CH4. Here, we present a compilation of directly measured CO2 and CH4 concentration data from Swedish low-order streams (> 1600 observations across > 500 streams) covering large climatological and land-use gradients. These data were combined with an empirically derived gas transfer model and the characteristics of a ca. 400,000 km stream network covering the entire country. The total stream CO2 and CH4 emission corresponded to 2.7 Tg C yr(-1) (95% confidence interval: 2.0-3.7) of which the CH4 accounted for 0.7% (0.02 Tg C yr(-1)). The study highlights the importance of low-order streams, as well as the critical need to better represent variability in emissions and stream areal extent to constrain future stream C emission estimates.
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