| 1. |
- Stephens, Lucas, et al.
(författare)
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Archaeological assessment reveals Earth’s early transformation through land use
- 2019
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science. - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 365:6456, s. 897-902
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Humans began to leave lasting impacts on Earth’s surface starting 10,000 to 8000 years ago. Through a synthetic collaboration with archaeologists around the globe, Stephens et al. compiled a comprehensive picture of the trajectory of human land use worldwide during the Holocene (see the Perspective by Roberts). Hunter-gatherers, farmers, and pastoralists transformed the face of Earth earlier and to a greater extent than has been widely appreciated, a transformation that was essentially global by 3000 years before the present.Science, this issue p. 897; see also p. 865Environmentally transformative human use of land accelerated with the emergence of agriculture, but the extent, trajectory, and implications of these early changes are not well understood. An empirical global assessment of land use from 10,000 years before the present (yr B.P.) to 1850 CE reveals a planet largely transformed by hunter-gatherers, farmers, and pastoralists by 3000 years ago, considerably earlier than the dates in the land-use reconstructions commonly used by Earth scientists. Synthesis of knowledge contributed by more than 250 archaeologists highlighted gaps in archaeological expertise and data quality, which peaked for 2000 yr B.P. and in traditionally studied and wealthier regions. Archaeological reconstruction of global land-use history illuminates the deep roots of Earth’s transformation and challenges the emerging Anthropocene paradigm that large-scale anthropogenic global environmental change is mostly a recent phenomenon.
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| 2. |
- Grüning, Björn, et al.
(författare)
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Bioconda: A sustainable and comprehensive software distribution for the life sciences
- 2017
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We present Bioconda (https://bioconda.github.io), a distribution of bioinformatics software for the lightweight, multi-platform and language-agnostic package manager Conda. Currently, Bioconda offers a collection of over 3000 software packages, which is continuously maintained, updated, and extended by a growing global community of more than 200 contributors. Bioconda improves analysis reproducibility by allowing users to define isolated environments with defined software versions, all of which are easily installed and managed without administrative privileges.
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| 3. |
- Jansen, Joachim, et al.
(författare)
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Climate‐Sensitive Controls on Large Spring Emissions of CH4 and CO2 From Northern Lakes
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences. - 2169-8953 .- 2169-8961. ; 124:7, s. 2379-2399
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Northern lakes are important sources of the climate forcing trace gases methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2). A substantial portion of lakes' annual emissions can take place immediately after ice melt in spring. The drivers of these fluxes are neither well constrained nor fully understood. We present a detailed carbon gas budget for three subarctic lakes, using 6 years of eddy covariance and 9 years of manual flux measurements. We combine measurements of temperature, dissolved oxygen, and CH4 stable isotopologues to quantify functional relationships between carbon gas production and conversion, energy inputs, and the redox regime. Spring emissions were regulated by the availability of oxygen in winter, rather than temperature as during ice‐free conditions. Under‐ice storage increased predictably with ice‐cover duration, and CH4 accumulation rates (25 ± 2 mg CH4‐C·m−2·day−1) exceeded summer emissions (19 ± 1 mg CH4‐C·m−2·day−1). The seasonally ice‐covered lakes emitted 26–59% of the annual CH4 flux and 15–30% of the annual CO2 flux at ice‐off. Reduced spring emissions were associated with winter snowmelt events, which can transport water downstream and oxygenate the water column. Stable isotopes indicate that 64–96% of accumulated CH4 escaped oxidation, implying that a considerable portion of the dissolved gases produced over winter may evade to the atmosphere.
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| 4. |
- Prytherch, John, et al.
(författare)
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Air-sea CO2 and CH4 gas transfer velocity in Arctic sea-ice regions from eddy covariance flux measurements onboard Icebreaker Oden
- 2017
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Abstracts. - 1029-7006 .- 1607-7962. ; 19
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Arctic Ocean is an important sink for atmospheric CO2, and there is ongoing debate on whether seafloor seeps in the Arctic are a large source of CH4 to the atmosphere. The impact of warming waters, decreasing sea-ice extent and expanding marginal ice zones on Arctic air-sea gas exchange depends on the rate of gas transfer in the presence of sea ice. Sea ice acts as a near-impermeable lid to air-sea gas exchange, but is also hypothesised to enhance gas transfer rates through physical processes such as increased surface-ocean turbulence from ice-water shear and ice-edge form drag. The dependence of the gas transfer rate on sea-ice concentration remains uncertain due to a lack of in situ measurements. Here we present the first direct estimates of gas transfer rate in a wide range of Arctic sea-ice conditions. The estimates were derived from eddy covariance CO2 and CH4 fluxes, measured from the Swedish Icebreaker Oden during two expeditions: the 3-month duration Arctic Clouds in Summer Experiment (ACSE) in 2014, a component of the Swedish-Russian-US Arctic Ocean Investigation on Climate-Cryosphere-Carbon Interactions (SWERUS-C3) in the eastern Arctic Ocean shelf region; and the Arctic Ocean 2016 expedition to the high latitude Arctic Ocean. Initial CO2 results from ACSE showed that the gas transfer rate has a near-linear dependence on sea-ice concentration, and that some previous indirect measurements and modelling estimates overestimate gas transfer rates in sea-ice regions. This supports a linear sea-ice scaling approach for assessments of polar ocean carbon fluxes. Air-sea gas transfer model assumptions (e.g. Schmidt number dependence) will be examined using simultaneous CO2 and CH4 measurements, and observations in different ice conditions (e.g. summer melt, autumn freeze up, central Arctic and marginal ice zones) will be compared.
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| 5. |
- Prytherch, John, et al.
(författare)
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Direct determination of the air-sea CO2 gas transfer velocity in Arctic sea ice regions
- 2017
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 44:8, s. 3770-3778
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Arctic Ocean is an important sink for atmospheric CO2. The impact of decreasing sea ice extent and expanding marginal ice zones on Arctic air-sea CO2 exchange depends on the rate of gas transfer in the presence of sea ice. Sea ice acts to limit air-sea gas exchange by reducing contact between air and water but is also hypothesized to enhance gas transfer rates across surrounding open-water surfaces through physical processes such as increased surface-ocean turbulence from ice-water shear and ice-edge form drag. Here we present the first direct determination of the CO2 air-sea gas transfer velocity in a wide range of Arctic sea ice conditions. We show that the gas transfer velocity increases near linearly with decreasing sea ice concentration. We also show that previous modeling approaches overestimate gas transfer rates in sea ice regions.
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| 6. |
- Saunois, M., et al.
(författare)
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The global methane budget 2000–2012
- 2016
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 8:2, s. 697-751
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (∼ biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations). For the 2003–2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 540–568. About 60 % of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50–65 %). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 596–884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 64 % of the global budget, < 30° N) as compared to mid (∼ 32 %, 30–60° N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90° N). Top-down inversions consistently infer lower emissions in China (∼ 58 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 51–72, −14 %) and higher emissions in Africa (86 Tg CH4 yr−1, range 73–108, +19 %) than bottom-up values used as prior estimates. Overall, uncertainties for anthropogenic emissions appear smaller than those from natural sources, and the uncertainties on source categories appear larger for top-down inversions than for bottom-up inventories and models. The most important source of uncertainty on the methane budget is attributable to emissions from wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30–40 % on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1) and the Global Carbon Project.
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| 7. |
- Saunois, M., et al.
(författare)
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Variability and quasi-decadal changes in the methane budget over the period 2000–2012
- 2017
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 17:18, s. 11135-11161
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Following the recent Global Carbon Project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH4) budget over 2000–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016), we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry), inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven approaches. The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000–2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000–2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008–2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16–32] Tg CH4 yr−1 higher methane emissions over the period 2008–2012 compared to 2002–2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics, with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seem to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002–2006 and 2008–2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies suggest smaller changes in fossil fuel emissions (from oil, gas, and coal industries) compared to the mean of the bottom-up inventories included in this study. This difference is partly driven by a smaller emission change in China from the top-down studies compared to the estimate in the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.2) inventory, which should be revised to smaller values in a near future. We apply isotopic signatures to the emission changes estimated for individual studies based on five emission sectors and find that for six individual top-down studies (out of eight) the average isotopic signature of the emission changes is not consistent with the observed change in atmospheric 13CH4. However, the partitioning in emission change derived from the ensemble mean is consistent with this isotopic constraint. At the global scale, the top-down ensemble mean suggests that the dominant contribution to the resumed atmospheric CH4 growth after 2006 comes from microbial sources (more from agriculture and waste sectors than from natural wetlands), with an uncertain but smaller contribution from fossil CH4 emissions. In addition, a decrease in biomass burning emissions (in agreement with the biomass burning emission databases) makes the balance of sources consistent with atmospheric 13CH4 observations. In most of the top-down studies included here, OH concentrations are considered constant over the years (seasonal variations but without any inter-annual variability). As a result, the methane loss (in particular through OH oxidation) varies mainly through the change in methane concentrations and not its oxidants. For these reasons, changes in the methane loss could not be properly investigated in this study, although it may play a significant role in the recent atmospheric methane changes as briefly discussed at the end of the paper.
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| 8. |
- Thonat, Thibaud, et al.
(författare)
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Assessment of the theoretical limit in instrumental detectability of northern high-latitude methane sources using delta C-13(CH4) atmospheric signals
- 2019
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 19:19, s. 12141-12161
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent efforts have brought together bottom-up quantification approaches (inventories and process-based models) and top-down approaches using regional observations of methane atmospheric concentrations through inverse modelling to better estimate the northern high-latitude methane sources. Nevertheless, for both approaches, the relatively small number of available observations in northern high-latitude regions leaves gaps in our understanding of the drivers and distributions of the different types of regional methane sources. Observations of methane isotope ratios, performed with instruments that are becoming increasingly affordable and accurate, could bring new insights on the contributions of methane sources and sinks. Here, we present the source signal that could be observed from methane isotopic (CH4)-C-13 measurements if high-resolution observations were available and thus what requirements should be fulfilled in future instrument deployments in terms of accuracy in order to constrain different emission categories. This theoretical study uses the regional chemistry-transport model CHIMERE driven by different scenarios of isotopic signatures for each regional methane source mix. It is found that if the current network of methane monitoring sites were equipped with instruments measuring the isotopic signal continuously, only sites that are significantly influenced by emission sources could differentiate regional emissions with a reasonable level of confidence. For example, wetland emissions require daily accuracies lower than 0.2 parts per thousand for most of the sites. Detecting East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) emissions requires accuracies lower than 0.05 parts per thousand at coastal Russian sites (even lower for other sites). Freshwater emissions would be detectable with an uncertainty lower than 0.1 parts per thousand for most continental sites. Except Yakutsk, Siberian sites require stringent uncertainty (lower than 0.05 parts per thousand) to detect anthropogenic emissions from oil and gas or coal production. Remote sites such as Zeppelin, Summit, or Alert require a daily uncertainty below 0.05 parts per thousand to detect any regional sources. These limits vary with the hypothesis on isotopic signatures assigned to the different sources.
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| 9. |
- Thonat, T., et al.
(författare)
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Detectability of Arctic methane sources at six sites performing continuous atmospheric measurements
- 2017
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 17:13, s. 8371-8394
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding the recent evolution of methane emissions in the Arctic is necessary to interpret the global methane cycle. Emissions are affected by significant uncertainties and are sensitive to climate change, leading to potential feedbacks. A polar version of the CHIMERE chemistry-transport model is used to simulate the evolution of tropospheric methane in the Arctic during 2012, including all known regional anthropogenic and natural sources, in particular freshwater emissions which are often overlooked in methane modelling. CHIMERE simulations are compared to atmospheric continuous observations at six measurement sites in the Arctic region. In winter, the Arctic is dominated by anthropogenic emissions; emissions from continental seepages and oceans, including from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, can contribute significantly in more limited areas. In summer, emissions from wetland and freshwater sources dominate across the whole region. The model is able to reproduce the seasonality and synoptic variations of methane measured at the different sites. We find that all methane sources significantly affect the measurements at all stations at least at the synoptic scale, except for biomass burning. In particular, freshwater systems play a decisive part in summer, representing on average between 11 and 26 % of the simulated Arctic methane signal at the sites. This indicates the relevance of continuous observations to gain a mechanistic understanding of Arctic methane sources. Sensitivity tests reveal that the choice of the land-surface model used to prescribe wetland emissions can be critical in correctly representing methane mixing ratios. The closest agreement with the observations is reached when using the two wetland models which have emissions peaking in August–September, while all others reach their maximum in June–July. Such phasing provides an interesting constraint on wetland models which still have large uncertainties at present. Also testing different freshwater emission inventories leads to large differences in modelled methane. Attempts to include methane sinks (OH oxidation and soil uptake) reduced the model bias relative to observed atmospheric methane. The study illustrates how multiple sources, having different spatiotemporal dynamics and magnitudes, jointly influence the overall Arctic methane budget, and highlights ways towards further improved assessments.
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| 10. |
- Thornton, Brett F., et al.
(författare)
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Climate-forced changes in available energy and methane bubbling from subarctic lakes
- 2015
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 42:6, s. 1936-1942
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Strong correlations between seasonal energy input and methane (CH4) bubbling (ebullition) in northern lakes suggest that energy proxies might provide a constraint on the magnitude of future CH4 emissions. Ebullition is a major pathway for transporting anaerobically produced CH4 from lake sediments to the atmosphere and represents a large unquantified CH4 source. In high-latitude, postglacial lakes during the ice-free season, solar shortwave energy input can constrain CH4 productivity via control of sediment temperature. Utilizing long-term climatic predictors, we calculate CH4 ebullition from three subarctic lakes in northern Sweden over the period of 1916-2079. Using observed energy trends, the seasonal average lake CH4 ebullition is predicted to increase by 80% between the 1916-1926 decade and the 2040-2079 period. Present-day seasonal average methane ebullition is estimated to have already increased 24% since the 1916-1926 decade.
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