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- Kennedy, Beatrice, 1982-, et al.
(författare)
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App-based COVID-19 syndromic surveillance and prediction of hospital admissions in COVID Symptom Study Sweden
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 13:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The app-based COVID Symptom Study was launched in Sweden in April 2020 to contribute to real-time COVID-19 surveillance. We enrolled 143,531 study participants (≥18 years) who contributed 10.6 million daily symptom reports between April 29, 2020 and February 10, 2021. Here, we include data from 19,161 self-reported PCR tests to create a symptom-based model to estimate the individual probability of symptomatic COVID-19, with an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI 0.74-0.83) in an external dataset. These individual probabilities are employed to estimate daily regional COVID-19 prevalence, which are in turn used together with current hospital data to predict next week COVID-19 hospital admissions. We show that this hospital prediction model demonstrates a lower median absolute percentage error (MdAPE: 25.9%) across the five most populated regions in Sweden during the first pandemic wave than a model based on case notifications (MdAPE: 30.3%). During the second wave, the error rates are similar. When we apply the same model to an English dataset, not including local COVID-19 test data, we observe MdAPEs of 22.3% and 19.0% during the first and second pandemic waves, respectively, highlighting the transferability of the prediction model.
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| 2. |
- Löhle, Matthias, et al.
(författare)
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Validation of the PD home diary for assessment of motor fluctuations in advanced Parkinson's disease
- 2022
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Ingår i: npj Parkinson's Disease. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2373-8057. ; 8:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Parkinson's disease (PD) home diary is frequently used in clinical trials to measure efficacy of medical treatments for motor fluctuations in advanced PD. This prospective study in fluctuating PD patients examines the validity of the diary for quantification of motor states in comparison to direct clinical observation. 51 patients (median age: 65 years, disease duration: 11 years) completed the diary half-hourly for two consecutive days and were simultaneously rated by an experienced observer, who independently evaluated motor states half-hourly throughout daytime. Overall agreement (Cohen's kappa) between patient and observer diary entries was 59.8% (0.387). Patients documented more On without dyskinesia (52.3% vs. 38.9%, P < 0.001) and less On with dyskinesia (21.5% vs. 34.2%, P < 0.001), whereas proportions for Off intervals were not different between patient and observer diaries (26.2% vs. 27.0%, P = 0.97). Temporal agreement between diary ratings was unsatisfactory, particularly for On with dyskinesia. Taken together, our study suggests that the PD home diary only inadequately reflects actual motor states compared to direct clinical observation.
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| 3. |
- Timpka, Jonathan, et al.
(författare)
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Objective Observer vs. Patient Motor State Assessments Using the PD Home Diary in Advanced Parkinsons Disease
- 2022
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Neurology. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 1664-2295. ; 13
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The Parkinson Disease (PD) Home Diary (HD) is a commonly used clinical outcome measure, but it has not been extensively compared to direct assessments by experienced observers. Objective: Validation of patient-reported HD by investigating the agreement between motor state assessments by patients and observers. Methods: This observational study included patients with PD and motor fluctuations. Observers were physicians or research nurses. Patients completed a screening visit, one day of diary ratings at home, and then two days of ratings on-site during which patients and observers simultaneously judged the participants motor state. Results: Observers and 40 patients completed 1,288 pairs of half-hourly blinded motor state assessments. There were significant differences between observer and patient ratings (P < 0.001) and the temporal agreement was poor (Cohens kappa = 0.358). The agreement between patient and observer ratings was 71.1% for observed "On without dyskinesia", 57.3% for observed "Off", and 49.4% for observed "On with dyskinesia". Daily times spent in the three motor states as aggregated diary data showed fair to excellent reliability with intraclass coefficient values ranging from 0.45 to 0.52 for "On" and 0.77 for "Off". Conclusion: There were significant differences between observer and patient ratings. Patients and observers generally agreed on when the patients was in the "On" state (with or without dyskinesia). Patient ratings on the hour level seem to be influenced by other aspects of the patients experience than the observed motor state, but assessment of daily time spent in the different motor state provides reasonable reliability.
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