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- Kanai, M, et al.
(författare)
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- 2023
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swepub:Mat__t
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- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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- Murphy, A., et al.
(författare)
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The household economic burden of non-communicable diseases in 18 countries
- 2020
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Ingår i: BMJ Global Health. - : BMJ. - 2059-7908. ; 5:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of death globally. In 2014, the United Nations committed to reducing premature mortality from NCDs, including by reducing the burden of healthcare costs. Since 2014, the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology (PURE) Study has been collecting health expenditure data from households with NCDs in 18 countries. Methods Using data from the PURE Study, we estimated risk of catastrophic health spending and impoverishment among households with at least one person with NCDs (cardiovascular disease, diabetes, kidney disease, cancer and respiratory diseases; n=17 435), with hypertension only (a leading risk factor for NCDs; n=11 831) or with neither (n=22 654) by country income group: high-income countries (Canada and Sweden), upper middle income countries (UMICs: Brazil, Chile, Malaysia, Poland, South Africa and Turkey), lower middle income countries (LMICs: the Philippines, Colombia, India, Iran and the Occupied Palestinian Territory) and low-income countries (LICs: Bangladesh, Pakistan, Zimbabwe and Tanzania) and China. Results The prevalence of catastrophic spending and impoverishment is highest among households with NCDs in LMICs and China. After adjusting for covariates that might drive health expenditure, the absolute risk of catastrophic spending is higher in households with NCDs compared with no NCDs in LMICs (risk difference=1.71%; 95% CI 0.75 to 2.67), UMICs (0.82%; 95% CI 0.37 to 1.27) and China (7.52%; 95% CI 5.88 to 9.16). A similar pattern is observed in UMICs and China for impoverishment. A high proportion of those with NCDs in LICs, especially women (38.7% compared with 12.6% in men), reported not taking medication due to costs. Conclusions Our findings show that financial protection from healthcare costs for people with NCDs is inadequate, particularly in LMICs and China. While the burden of NCD care may appear greatest in LMICs and China, the burden in LICs may be masked by care foregone due to costs. The high proportion of women reporting foregone care due to cost may in part explain gender inequality in treatment of NCDs. © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.
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- Hystad, P., et al.
(författare)
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Associations of outdoor fine particulate air pollution and cardiovascular disease in 157 436 individuals from 21 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries (PURE): a prospective cohort study
- 2020
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Ingår i: Lancet Planetary Health. - 2542-5196. ; 4:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Most studies of long-term exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter (PM5) and cardiovascular disease are from high-income countries with relatively low PM25 concentrations. It is unclear whether risks are similar in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) and how outdoor PM contributes to the global burden of cardiovascular disease. In our analysis of the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study, we aimed to investigate the association between long-term exposure to come, middle-income, and low-income countries. Methods In this multinational, prospective cohort study, we studied 157 436 adults aged 35-70 years who were enrolled in the PURE study in countries with ambient PM25 estimates, for whom follow-up data were available. Cox proportional hazard frailty models were used to estimate the associations between long-term mean community outdoor PM concentrations and cardiovascular disease events ( fatal and non-fatal), cardiovascular disease mortality, and other non-accidental mortality. Findings Between Jan 1, 2003, and July 14, 2018, 157 436 adults from 747 communities in 21 high-income, middle-income, and low-income countries were enrolled and followed up, of whom 140 020 participants resided in LMICs. During a median follow-up period of 9 center dot 3 years (IQR 7 center dot 8-10 center dot 8; corresponding to 1 center dot 4 million person-years), we documented 9996 non-accidental deaths, of which 3219 were attributed to cardiovascular disease. 9152 (5 center dot 8%) of 157 436 participants had cardiovascular disease events (fatal and non-fatal incident cardiovascular disease), including 4083 myocardial infarctions and 4139 strokes. Mean 3-year PM25 at cohort baseline was 47 center dot 5 mu g/m(3) (range 6-140). In models adjusted for individual, household, and geographical factors, a 10 mu g/m(3) increase in PM25 was associated with increased risk for cardiovascular disease events (hazard ratio 1 center dot 05 [95% CI 1 center dot 03-1 center dot 07]), myocardial infarction (1 center dot 03 [1 center dot 00-1 center dot 05]), stroke (1 center dot 07 [1 center dot 04-1 center dot 10]), and cardiovascular disease mortality (1 center dot 03 [1 center dot 00-1 center dot 05]). Results were similar for LMICs and communities with high PM25 concentrations (>35 mu g/m(3)). The population attributable fraction for PM25 in the PURE cohort was 13 center dot 9% (95% CI 8 center dot 8-18 center dot 6) for cardiovascular disease events, 8 center dot 4% (0 center dot 0-15 center dot 4) for myocardial infarction, 19 center dot 6% (13 center dot 0-25 center dot 8) for stroke, and 8 center dot 3% (0 center dot 0-15 center dot 2) for cardiovascular disease mortality. We identified no consistent associations between PM25 and risk for non-cardiovascular disease deaths. Interpretation Long-term outdoor PM25 concentrations were associated with increased risks of cardiovascular disease in adults aged 35-70 years. Air pollution is an important global risk factor for cardiovascular disease and a need exists to reduce air pollution concentrations, especially in LMICs, where air pollution levels are highest. Copyright (c) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license.
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| 8. |
- Boakye, K., et al.
(författare)
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Perceived built environment characteristics associated with walking and cycling across 355 communities in 21 countries
- 2023
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Ingår i: Cities. - : Elsevier BV. - 0264-2751. ; 132
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Research examining built environment (BE) characteristics and walking/cycling behaviors has been conducted primarily in high-income countries and conclusions cannot be applied directly to low- and middle-income countries. We evaluated perceived BE characteristics and walking/cycling behaviors across 355 urban communities in 21 low-, middle-, and high- income countries using individual data for 39,908 adults in the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology study. The 1-week long-form International Physical Activity Questionnaire was used to measure walking/cycling behaviors. Perceived BE characteristics were measured using the Neighborhood Environment Walkability Scale. Mixed effects logistic regression models examined associations between BE measures and walking for transport (≥150 min/wk), walking for leisure (≥150 min/wk), and any cycling for transport, controlling for individual, household, and community factors. Land-use mix diversity, land-use mix access, and street connectivity were associated with higher odds of walking for transport. Land-use mix diversity, land-use mix access, safety from traffic and safety from crime were associated with higher odds of walking for leisure. Land-use mix diversity, land-use mix access, and aesthetics were associated with higher odds of cycling. Differences in associations were observed by country-income status. Our findings can help guide policy makers globally to implement BE design to encourage walking and cycling behaviors.
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| 9. |
- Guha, N, et al.
(författare)
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Lung cancer risk in painters: results from the SYNERGY pooled case-control study consortium
- 2021
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Ingår i: Occupational and environmental medicine. - : BMJ. - 1470-7926 .- 1351-0711. ; 78:4, s. 269-278
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We evaluated the risk of lung cancer associated with ever working as a painter, duration of employment and type of painter by histological subtype as well as joint effects with smoking, within the SYNERGY project.MethodsData were pooled from 16 participating case–control studies conducted internationally. Detailed individual occupational and smoking histories were available for 19 369 lung cancer cases (684 ever employed as painters) and 23 674 age-matched and sex-matched controls (532 painters). Multivariable unconditional logistic regression models were adjusted for age, sex, centre, cigarette pack-years, time-since-smoking cessation and lifetime work in other jobs that entailed exposure to lung carcinogens.ResultsEver having worked as a painter was associated with an increased risk of lung cancer in men (OR 1.30; 95% CI 1.13 to 1.50). The association was strongest for construction and repair painters and the risk was elevated for all histological subtypes, although more evident for small cell and squamous cell lung cancer than for adenocarcinoma and large cell carcinoma. There was evidence of interaction on the additive scale between smoking and employment as a painter (relative excess risk due to interaction >0).ConclusionsOur results by type/industry of painter may aid future identification of causative agents or exposure scenarios to develop evidence-based practices for reducing harmful exposures in painters.
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| 10. |
- Tse, L. A., et al.
(författare)
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Timing and Length of Nocturnal Sleep and Daytime Napping and Associations With Obesity Types in High-, Middle-, and Low-Income Countries
- 2021
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Ingår i: Jama Network Open. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2574-3805. ; 4:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- IMPORTANCE Obesity is a growing public health threat leading to serious health consequences. Late bedtime and sleep loss are common in modern society, but their associations with specific obesity types are not well characterized. OBJECTIVE To assess whether sleep timing and napping behavior are associated with increased obesity, independent of nocturnal sleep length. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This large, multinational, population-based cross-sectional study used data of participants from 60 study centers in 26 countries with varying income levels as part of the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology study. Participants were aged 35 to 70 years and were mainly recruited during 2005 and 2009. Data analysis occurred from October 2020 through March 2021. EXPOSURES Sleep timing (ie, bedtime and wake-up time), nocturnal sleep duration, daytime napping. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcomes were prevalence of obesity, specified as general obesity, defined as body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) of 30 or greater, and abdominal obesity, defined as waist circumference greater than 102 cmfor men or greater than 88 cm for women. Multilevel logistic regression models with random effects for study centerswere performed to calculate adjusted odds ratios (AORs) and 95% CIs. RESULTS Overall, 136 652 participants (81 652 [59.8%] women; mean [SD] age, 51.0 [9.8] years) were included in analysis. A total of 27 195 participants (19.9%) had general obesity, and 37 024 participants (27.1%) had abdominal obesity. The mean (SD) nocturnal sleep duration was 7.8 (1.4) hours, and the median (interquartile range) midsleep time was 2:15 AM (1:30 AM-3:00 AM). A total of 19 660 participants (14.4%) had late bedtime behavior (ie, midnight or later). Compared with bedtime between 8 PM and 10 PM, late bedtime was associated with general obesity (AOR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.12-1.29) and abdominal obesity (AOR, 1.20; 95% CI, 1.12-1.28), particularly among participants who went to bed between 2 AM and 6 AM (general obesity: AOR, 1.35; 95% CI, 1.18-1.54; abdominal obesity: AOR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.21-1.58). Short nocturnal sleep of less than 6 hours was associated with general obesity (eg, <5 hours: AOR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.13-1.43), but longer napping was associated with higher abdominal obesity prevalence (eg, >= 1 hours: AOR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.31-1.47). Neither going to bed during the day (ie, before 8PM) nor wake-up time was associated with obesity. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE This cross-sectional study found that late nocturnal bedtime and short nocturnal sleep were associated with increased risk of obesity prevalence, while longer daytime napping did not reduce the risk but was associated with higher risk of abdominal obesity. Strategic weight control programs should also encourage earlier bedtime and avoid short nocturnal sleep to mitigate obesity epidemic.
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