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- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 2. |
- Calzetti, D., et al.
(författare)
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THE BRIGHTEST YOUNG STAR CLUSTERS IN NGC 5253
- 2015
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 811:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The nearby dwarf starburst galaxy NGC 5253 hosts a number of young, massive star clusters, the two youngest of which are centrally concentrated and surrounded by thermal radio emission (the radio nebula). To investigate the role of these clusters in the starburst energetics, we combine new and archival Hubble Space Telescope images of NGC 5253 with wavelength coverage from 1500 angstrom 1.9 mu m in 13 filters. These include H alpha, P beta, and P alpha, and the imaging from the Hubble Treasury Program LEGUS (Legacy Extragalactic UV Survey). The extraordinarily well-sampled spectral energy distributions enable modeling with unprecedented accuracy the ages, masses, and extinctions of the nine optically brightest clusters (M-V < -8.8) and the two young radio nebula clusters. The clusters have ages similar to 1-15 Myr and masses similar to 1 x 10(4)-2.5 x 10(5) M-circle dot. The clusters' spatial location and ages indicate that star formation has become more concentrated toward the radio nebula over the last similar to 15 Myr. The most massive cluster is in the radio nebula; with a mass similar to 2.5 x 10(5) M-circle dot and an age similar to 1 Myr, it is 2-4 times less massive and younger than previously estimated. It is within a dust cloud with AV similar to 50 mag, and shows a clear near-IR excess, likely from hot dust. The second radio nebula cluster is also similar to 1 Myr old, confirming the extreme youth of the starburst region. These two clusters account for about half of the ionizing photon rate in the radio nebula, and will eventually supply about 2/3 of the mechanical energy in present-day shocks. Additional sources are required to supply the remaining ionizing radiation, and may include very massive stars.
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| 3. |
- Calzetti, D., et al.
(författare)
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LEGACY EXTRAGALACTIC UV SURVEY (LEGUS) WITH THE HUBBLE SPACE TELESCOPE. I. SURVEY DESCRIPTION
- 2015
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Ingår i: Astronomical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-6256 .- 1538-3881. ; 149:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Legacy ExtraGalactic UV Survey (LEGUS) is a Cycle 21 Treasury program on the Hubble Space Telescope aimed at the investigation of star formation and its relation with galactic environment in nearby galaxies, from the scales of individual stars to those of similar to kiloparsec-size clustered structures. Five-band imaging from the nearultraviolet to the I band with the Wide-Field Camera 3 (WFC3), plus parallel optical imaging with the Advanced Camera for Surveys (ACS), is being collected for selected pointings of 50 galaxies within the local 12 Mpc. The filters used for the observations with the WFC3 are F275W(lambda 2704 angstrom), F336W(lambda 3355 angstrom), F438W(lambda 4325 angstrom), F555W(lambda 5308 angstrom), and F814W(lambda 8024 angstrom); the parallel observations with the ACS use the filters F435W (lambda 4328 angstrom), F606W(lambda 5921 angstrom), and F814W(lambda 8057 angstrom). The multiband images are yielding accurate recent (less than or similar to 50 Myr) star formation histories from resolved massive stars and the extinction-corrected ages and masses of star clusters and associations. The extensive inventories of massive stars and clustered systems will be used to investigate the spatial and temporal evolution of star formation within galaxies. This will, in turn, inform theories of galaxy evolution and improve the understanding of the physical underpinning of the gas-star formation relation and the nature of star formation at high redshift. This paper describes the survey, its goals and observational strategy, and the initial scientific results. Because LEGUS will provide a reference survey and a foundation for future observations with the James Webb Space Telescope and with ALMA, a large number of data products are planned for delivery to the community.
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| 4. |
- Grasha, K., et al.
(författare)
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THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE YOUNG STELLAR CLUSTERS IN THE STAR-FORMING GALAXY NGC 628
- 2015
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 815:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a study of the spatial distribution of the stellar cluster populations in the star-forming galaxy NGC 628. Using Hubble Space Telescope broadband WFC3/UVIS UV and optical images from the Treasury Program LEGUS (Legacy ExtraGalactic UV Survey), we have identified 1392 potential young (less than or similar to 100 Myr) stellar clusters within the galaxy using a combination of visual inspection and automatic selection. We investigate the clustering of these young stellar clusters and quantify the strength and change of clustering strength with scale using the two-point correlation function. We also investigate how image boundary conditions and dust lanes affect the observed clustering. The distribution of the clusters is well fit by a broken power law with negative exponent a. We recover a weighted mean index of alpha similar to -0.8 for all spatial scales below the break at 3.13 (158 pc at a distance of 9.9 Mpc) and an index of alpha similar to - 0.18 above 158 pc for the accumulation of all cluster types. The strength of the clustering increases with decreasing age and clusters older than 40 Myr lose their clustered structure very rapidly and tend to be randomly distributed in this galaxy, whereas the mass of the star cluster has little effect on the clustering strength. This is consistent with results from other studies that the morphological hierarchy in stellar clustering resembles the same hierarchy as the turbulent interstellar medium.
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