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- Mattsson, Niclas, 1967, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of perturbations in a dynamic system – The case of Nordic power production
- 2008
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We use a dynamic model of the production of electricity and district heat in the Nordic countries to investigate the effects of small changes in the Nordic power-supply system. Our aim is to improve the understanding concerning marginal effects in this system and in dynamic production systems in general. Specifically, we investigate the effects of an earlier closing of a nuclear reactor, and of increases in short-term and long-term electricity demand. Our results demonstrate that a long-term perturbation has both short-term and long-term effects. To account for short-term effects only can be a serious limitation in a study aiming at describing the effects of decisions. Marginal effects in a dynamic system are likely to involve a complex and uncertain mix of different technologies. The magnitude of the effects can be greater than the perturbation itself and remain long after it has ended. Perturbations in one production system can also have marginal effects outside this system.
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| 3. |
- Odenberger, Mikael, 1977, et al.
(författare)
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Pathways for the North European electricity supply
- 2009
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215. ; 37:5, s. 1660-1677
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper investigates the development of the electricity-supply systems in Northern Europe(Germany, UK, Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Norway) until the year 2050. The focus is onthe response to an assumed common stringent CO2-reduction target and on the role of carbon captureand storage technologies (CCS). Special emphasis is put on turn-over in capital stock, timingof investments and the infrastructural implications of large-scale introduction of CCS. The analysis iscarried out through scenario analysis with the aid of a techno-economic model, in which a caseincluding CCS is compared to a case excluding this option. The phase out of the present capitalstock (power plants) is included from the Chalmers energy infrastructure databases, which givesinformation on present and planned power plants down to block level for plants exceeding 10MW netelectric power. Assuming technical lifetimes for these plants yield residual capacities in each year, herereferred to as the phase-out pattern. CCS technologies are assumed to become commercially availablein 2020.The age structure of the power plants indicate that full turn-over in capital stock will take severaldecades with the present generation capacities accounting for around 50% of generated electricity in2020. The results show that CO2 emission reductions of 20% and 60% by the years 2020 and 2050,respectively, relative to 1990, can be met at a marginal cost of abatement of about 25–40 h/ton CO2 overthe period studied if CCS is included as an option from 2020. At the same time the marginal cost ofgenerating electricity lies in the range 45–60 h/MWh. Excluding CCS raises the marginal cost ofabatement with about 10 h/ton CO2, whereas the marginal cost of electricity generation increases withroughly 5–10 h/MWh. The CO2 target by the year 2020 is met by implementation of renewableelectricity and fuel shifting from coal to gas. After 2020 CCS technologies constitute an attractive wayfor cost efficient and almost CO2-free base load. However, wide-spread application of CCS is aninfrastructural challenge with respect to implementing capture plants as well as building up acorresponding CO2 infrastructure for transportation and storage as well as in coal supply systems. Giventhe price assumptions applied, gas may not be competitive once CCS enters the system causing earlyretirements of such units or possibly stranded assets.
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| 4. |
- Unger, Thomas, 1967, et al.
(författare)
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Impacts of a common green certificate market on electricity and CO2-emission markets in the Nordic countries
- 2005
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Ingår i: Energy Policy. - 0301-4215. ; 33, s. 2152-2163
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of introducing a common Nordic system for tradable green certificates (TGCs)on the electricity market and a future market for tradable CO2-emission permits (TEPs). In the analysis, the energy-system modelgenerator MARKAL was used to model the electricity and district-heating supply systems in the four Nordic countries Sweden,Norway, Finland and Denmark. It is shown that the introduction of TGC quotas reduces wholesale electricity and TEP prices. Theimpact on the latter is very pronounced. Retail electricity prices may become lower or higher, depending on the TGC quota, than ifobligations to fulfill TGC quotas were absent. The TGC scheme’s efficiency in reducing a specific amount of CO2 emissions is alsocompared to the corresponding efficiency of a TEP scheme involving a broader range of technologies. Furthermore, obligations tofulfill TGC quotas affect investment incentives for new non-renewable electricity supply. This seems especially true for gas-firedpower plants. Finally, it is indicated that electricity supply based on biomass combustion dominates the TGC scheme, at least in the short run.
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