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- Englund, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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The Current Account, Supply Shocks, and Accomodative Fiscal Policy : Interpretations of Swedish Post-War Data
- 1987
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The aim of the paper is to asses empirically the importance of different types of shocks in explaining the Swedish current account. We do this by first estimating an unrestricted vector autoregression system in these four variables: the real wage, the terms of trade, governmnet consumption, and the current accout. We then perform innovation accouting and impulse response studies based on a particular structural model that allows identification of the parameters of the contemporaneous relations between the variables. The model allows for labour-union determined wages, and government consumption is taken to be accomodative in response to private sector labour demand. A principal finding is that the forecast error variance in the current account is to a very limited extent (less than 20 per cent over a couple of years) explained by innovations to the wage, terms-of-trade, or government-consumption equations. This is in contrast with the "conventional wisdom" and also with the results for some of the other variables. For example, innovations in the wage equation explain less than half of the variance of the wage.
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| 4. |
- Vredin, Anders
(författare)
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Macroeconomic policies and the balance of payments
- 1988
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This thesis is a study of the relation between macroeconomic policies and the balance of payments. It is focused on institutional factors and empirical regularities pertaining to the Swedish economy. A major topic is the question whether there is any theoretical and empirical evidence that Sweden has some monetary autonomy. It is argued that risk averse behavior of private investors, in combination with the central bank’s exchange rate policy, creates some room for an independent monetary policy. On the other hand, capital controls that limit foreigners’ holdings of domestic securities seem to be ineffective. Another question concerns the determinants of the Swedish current account. Empirical results indicate that the disturbances to wages, government consumption and terms of trade are of relatively little importance to the development of the current account.
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