| 1. |
- Andersson, Lotta, et al.
(författare)
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Design and test of a model-assisted participatory process for the formulation of a local climate adaptation plan
- 2013
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Ingår i: Climate and Development. - : Taylor and Francis: STM, Behavioural Science and Public Health Titles. - 1756-5529 .- 1756-5537. ; 5:3, s. 217-228
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article presents the design and testing of a model-assisted participatory process for the formulation of a local adaptation plan to climate change. The pilot study focused on small-scale and commercial agriculture, water supply, housing, wildlife, livestock and biodiversity in the Thukela River basin, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. The methodology was based on stakeholders identifying and ranking the severity of climate-related challenges, and downscaled stakeholder-identified information provided by modellers, with the aim of addressing possible changes of exposure in the future. The methodology enables the integration of model-based information with experience and visions based on local realities. It includes stakeholders own assessments of their vulnerability to prevailing climate variability and the severity, if specified, of climate-related problems that may occur more often in the future. The methodology made it possible to identify the main issues to focus on in the adaptation plan, including barriers to adaptation. We make recommendations for how to design a model-assisted participatory process, emphasizing the need for transparency, to recognize the interests of the stakeholders, good advance planning, local relevance, involvement of local champions, and adaptation of Information material to each groups previous experience and understanding.
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| 2. |
- Andersson, Lotta, 1958-, et al.
(författare)
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Från global klimatforskning till lokal riskanalys och klimatanpassning : Exempel på hur man kan arbeta med lokalt deltagande, kombinerat med modeller i formulering av lokal sårbarhets och anpassningsplaner vid förändrat klimat
- 2010
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Ingår i: Klimatets krav på samhället. - Linköping : Linköping University Electronic Press. - 9789173935647 ; , s. 47-64
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Bokkapitel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Sverige hör troligen inte till de regioner i världen som är mest sårbara för klimatvariabilitet och förändringar. Effekter från ett förändrat klimat kommer dock med stor sannolikhet att vara märkbara även lokalt i Sverige, vilket diskuteras mer ingående i Sten Bergströms artikel. Denna artikel syftar till att bidra med erfarenheter runt hur man kan arbeta med att ta fram lokalt förankrade anpassningsstrategier. Med tanke på osäkerheter om detaljer i det framtida klimatet, kan det ibland ifrågasättas om det är rimligt att göra stora investeringar på så osäkra grunder. I detta sammanhang är det viktigt att tänka på att anpassningsstrategier för att möta framtida förändringar även gör oss bättre rustade att möta den klimatvariabilitet som vi redan lever med. Att välja rätt strategier för framtiden bör därför baseras på identifikation och fokus på de klimatrelaterade problem som vi har redan idag, med fokus på de problem som ger allvarligast effekter för olika sektorer i samhället, samt, baserad på regionalt nedskalade modellberäkningar, identifikation av sannolikheten för att dessa problem kommer att öka i framtiden. I denna artikel ges ett exempel på hur man genom aktörsamverkan kan ta fram lokala och regionala åtgärdsplaner. Samverkan har assisterats av klimat och vattenmodellerare, som i dialog med lokala aktörer tagit fram det material som behövts för att föra diskussionerna vidare. Exempel ges från ett pågående projekt i Sydafrika, men metoderna är lika relevanta i Sverige. Liknande metoder har, t.ex. använts för att ta fram en lokalt föreslagen åtgärdsplan mot övergödning i Kaggebofjärden, med medverkan från bl.a. lantbrukare, sommarstugeägare och kommuner (rapport kan beställas från lotta.andersson@smhi.se) . Dessutom beskrivs kortfattat ett nystartat INTERREG-projekt, ”Baltic Climate” som bl.a. syftar till att ge kommuner och lokala aktörer runt Östersjön möjlighet att möta klimatförändringarna på ett hållbart sätt..
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| 3. |
- Andersson, Lotta, 1958-, et al.
(författare)
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Participatory modelling for locally proposed climate change adaptation related to water and agriculture in South Africa
- 2010
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Ingår i: <em><em>Global change: Facing Risks and Threats to Water Resources</em></em>. - : International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS). - 9781907161131 ; , s. 214-220
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The participatory modelling project (PAMO) carried out in the Thukela River Basin, South Africa assessed vulnerability to climate variability and change on water resources through direct involvement of affected groups. The aim was to increase stakeholder confidence and ownership, and create a local adaptation plan. Meetings were held with three stakeholder groups: (a) government authorities, research nstitutes, NGOs, (b) commercial farmers, and (c) small-scale farmers, and complemented with interviews. Based on participants’requests, modellers compiled regionally dynamically downscaled climate change projections, as well as their hydrological consequences. The project focused on agriculture, water resources/infrastructure and biodiversity. Though many future problems were shared, their pre-conditions for dealing with these were vastly different. Knowledge transfer within and across the farming communities and with government agencies on climate change, adaptation measures, and means to procure financing and permits for measures will aid local initiatives to prepare for climate variability and change.
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| 4. |
- Andersson, Lotta, 1958-, et al.
(författare)
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Use of participatory scenario modeling as platforms in stakeholder dialogues
- 2010
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Ingår i: Hydrocomplexity : New Tools for Solving Wicked Water Problems - New Tools for Solving Wicked Water Problems. - 0144-7815. - 9781907161117
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Water related problems are characterized by complexities, uncertainties, and conflicting interests and there is no single “optimal” way to approach these “wicked” problems. Model-assisted participatory processes have been suggested as one way to meet these challenges. However, the use of models as ascenario tools for local planning of mitigation and adaptation strategies addressing environmental challenges is more often an exception than a common practice. In order to assess future possibilities for successful useof participatory scenario modelling, experiences from two model-facilitated projects are presented and discussed. The participatory scenario modelling described in this paper, implies modelling with people, as opposed to agent based modelling which is based on modelling of people’s behaviour and its consequences. In the first project, a participatory model-assisted process was conducted to formulate a locally proposed remedy plan to reduce nitrogen and phosphorus loads in local lakes and the coastal zone. In the second project, a similar process was used to formulate local adaptation strategies to climate change impacts on water allocation, farming and the environment. Based on the experiences of these projects; recommendations are made to how model-assisted participatory processes can best be organised and conducted. A key message is that modellers need to rethink their role as “solution providers” to become “process facilitators”.
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| 5. |
- Cassidy, Lynn, et al.
(författare)
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Indigenous Knowledge, Livelihoods and Government Policy
- 2011
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Ingår i: Rural Livelihoods, Risk and Political Economy of Access to Natural Resources in the Okavango Delta, Botswana. - : Nova Publishers. - 9781611226997
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The Okavango Delta, a globally renowned wetland, is characterized by a mosaic of meandering watercourses, floodplains and islands, and is home to a variety of wildlife and vegetation species. It is a major source of livelihoods for the local communities and also an important attraction for tourism, the second most important economic activity in Botswana after diamonds, contributing 5% to the gross domestic product (GDP). As a globally renowned Ramsar Site and major tourist attraction, the Okavango Delta is a resource of national, regional and international importance. This book examines the results of empirical micro-level studies undertaken in the Okavango Delta and contributes to the formulation of relevant policies for sustainable development in the Okavango Delta. (Imprint: Nova Press)
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| 6. |
- Cordell, Dana, 1979-
(författare)
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The Story of Phosphorus : Sustainability implications of global phosphorus scarcity for food security
- 2010
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The story of phosphorus began with the search for the philosopher’s stone, and centuries later the critical role of phosphorus in soil fertility and crop growth was highlighted. Eventually, phosphorus was implicated in the global environmental challenge of eutrophication. Now, we are on the brink of yet another emerging chapter in the story: global phosphorus scarcity linked to food security. Through a transdisciplinary and systemic inquiry, this thesis has analyzed, reconceptualized and synthesized the physical and institutional dimensions of global phosphorus scarcity in the context of food security, leading to a new framing, ‘phosphorus security’ to guide future work towards a more sustainable and food secure pathway.In a world which will be home to nine billion people by the middle of this century, producing enough food and other vital resources is likely to be a substantial challenge for humanity. Phosphorus, together with nitrogen and potassium, is an essential plant nutrient. It is applied to agricultural soils in fertilizers to maintain high crop yields. Phosphorus has no substitute in food production. Therefore, securing the long-term availability and accessibility of phosphorus is crucial to global food security. However the major source of phosphorus today, phosphate rock, is a non-renewable resource and high quality reserves are becoming increasingly scarce. This thesis estimates peak phosphorus to occur before 2035, after which demand will exceed supply. Phosphorus scarcity is defined by more than just physical scarcity of phosphate rock and this thesis develops five important dimensions. For example, there is a scarcity of management of phosphorus throughout the entire food production and consumption system: the global phosphorus flows analysis found that only 20% of phosphorus in phosphate rock mined for food production actually reaches the food consumed by the global population due to substantial inefficiencies and losses from mine to field to fork. There is also an economic scarcity, where for example, while all the world’s farmers need access to sufficient fertilizers, only those with sufficient purchasing power can access fertilizer markets. Institutional scarcity, such as the lack of governance structures at the international level that explicitly aim to ensure long-term availability of and access to global phosphorus resources for food production that has led to ineffective and fragmented governance of phosphorus, including a lack of: overall coordination, monitoring and feedback, clear roles and responsibilities, long-term planning and equitable distribution. Finally, geopolitical scarcity arising from 90% of the world’s remaining high-grade phosphate rock reserves being controlled by just five countries (a majority of which are subject to geopolitical tensions) can limit the availability of phosphorus on the market and raises serious ethical questions.The long-term future scenarios presented in this thesis indicate that meeting future global food demand will likely require a substantial reduction in the global demand for phosphorus through not only improved efficient use of phosphorus in agriculture, but also through changing diets and increasing efficiency in the food chain. The unavoidable demand for phosphorus could then be met through a high recovery and reuse rate of all sources of phosphorus (crop residues, food waste, manure, excreta) and other sources including some phosphate rock. A ‘hard-landing’ situation could involve further fertilizer price spikes, increased waste and pollution (including eutrophication), increased energy consumption associated with the production and trade of phosphorus fertilizers, reduced farmer access to phosphorus, reduced global crop yields and increased food insecurity. A preferred ‘soft landing’ situation will however require substantial changes to physical and institutional infrastructure, including improved governance structures at the global, national and other levels, such as new policies, partnerships and roles to bring together the food, fertilizer, agriculture, sanitation and waste sectors for a coordinated response.Finally, this thesis proposes a new global goal – phosphorus security – to be integrated in the dominant research discourses and policy debates on global food security and global environmental change. Among other criteria, phosphorus security requires that phosphorus use is decoupled from environmental degradation and that farmers’ access to phosphorus is secured.
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| 7. |
- Ferguson, Jane F, et al.
(författare)
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Gene-nutrient interactions in the metabolic syndrome : single nucleotide polymorphisms in ADIPOQ and ADIPOR1 interact with plasma saturated fatty acids to modulate insulin resistance
- 2010
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Ingår i: American Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : Elsevier BV. - 0002-9165 .- 1938-3207. ; 91:3, s. 794-801
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Progression of the metabolic syndrome (MetS) is determined by genetic and environmental factors. Gene-environment interactions may be important in modulating the susceptibility to the development of MetS traits. OBJECTIVE: Gene-nutrient interactions were examined in MetS subjects to determine interactions between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the adiponectin gene (ADIPOQ) and its receptors (ADIPOR1 and ADIPOR2) and plasma fatty acid composition and their effects on MetS characteristics. DESIGN: Plasma fatty acid composition, insulin sensitivity, plasma adiponectin and lipid concentrations, and ADIPOQ, ADIPOR1, and ADIPOR2 SNP genotypes were determined in a cross-sectional analysis of 451 subjects with the MetS who participated in the LIPGENE (Diet, Genomics, and the Metabolic Syndrome: an Integrated Nutrition, Agro-food, Social, and Economic Analysis) dietary intervention study and were repeated in 1754 subjects from the LIPGENE-SU.VI.MAX (SUpplementation en VItamines et Minéraux AntioXydants) case-control study (http://www.ucd.ie/lipgene). RESULTS: Single SNP effects were detected in the cohort. Triacylglycerols, nonesterified fatty acids, and waist circumference were significantly different between genotypes for 2 SNPs (rs266729 in ADIPOQ and rs10920533 in ADIPOR1). Minor allele homozygotes for both of these SNPs were identified as having degrees of insulin resistance, as measured by the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance, that were highly responsive to differences in plasma saturated fatty acids (SFAs). The SFA-dependent association between ADIPOR1 rs10920533 and insulin resistance was replicated in cases with MetS from a separate independent study, which was an association not present in controls. CONCLUSIONS: A reduction in plasma SFAs could be expected to lower insulin resistance in MetS subjects who are minor allele carriers of rs266729 in ADIPOQ and rs10920533 in ADIPOR1. Personalized dietary advice to decrease SFA consumption in these individuals may be recommended as a possible therapeutic measure to improve insulin sensitivity. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00429195.
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| 8. |
- Ferguson, Jane F., et al.
(författare)
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NOS3 gene polymorphisms are associated with risk markers of cardiovascular disease, and interact with omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids
- 2010
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Ingår i: Atherosclerosis. - : Elsevier BV. - 0021-9150 .- 1879-1484. ; 211:2, s. 539-544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: Omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 PUFA) may protect against the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Genotype at key genes such as nitric oxide synthase (NOS3) may determine responsiveness to fatty acids. Gene-nutrient interactions may be important in modulating the development of CVD, particularly in high-risk individuals with the metabolic syndrome (MetS). Methods: Biomarkers of CVD risk, plasma fatty acid composition, and NOS3 single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotype (rs11771443, rs1800783, rs1800779, rs1799983, rs3918227, and rs743507) were determined in 450 individuals with the MetS from the LIPGENE dietary intervention cohort. The effect of dietary fat modification for 12 weeks on metabolic indices of the MetS was determined to understand potential NOS3 gene-nutrient interactions. Results: Several markers of inflammation and dyslipidaemia were significantly different between the genotype groups. A significant gene-nutrient interaction was observed between the NOS3 rs1799983 SNP and plasma n-3 PUFA status on plasma triacylglycerol (TAG) concentrations. Minor allele carriers (AC + AA) showed an inverse association with significantly higher plasma TAG concentrations in those with low plasma n-3 PUFA status and vice versa but the major allele homozygotes (CC) did not. Following n-3 PUFA supplementation, plasma TAG concentrations of minor allele carriers of rs1799983 were considerably more responsive to changes in plasma n-3 PUFA, than major allele homozygotes. Conclusions: Carriers of the minor allele at rs1799983 in NOS3 have plasma TAG concentrations which are more responsive to n-3 PUFA. This suggests that these individuals might show greater beneficial effects of n-3 PUFA consumption to reduce plasma TAG concentrations.
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| 9. |
- Garcia-Rios, Antonio, et al.
(författare)
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A Period 2 Genetic Variant Interacts with Plasma SFA to Modify Plasma Lipid Concentrations in Adults with Metabolic Syndrome
- 2012
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Ingår i: Journal of Nutrition. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-3166 .- 1541-6100. ; 142:7, s. 1213-1218
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Genetic variants of Period 2 (PER2), a circadian clock gene, have been linked to metabolic syndrome (MetS). However, it is still unknown whether these genetic variants interact with the various types of plasma fatty acids. This study investigated whether common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the PER2 locus (rs934945 and rs2304672) interact with various classes of plasma fatty acids to modulate plasma lipid metabolism in 381 participants with MetS in the European LIPGENE study. Interestingly, the rs2304672 SNP interacted with plasma total SFA concentrations to affect fasting plasma TG, TG-rich lipoprotein (TRL-TG), total cholesterol, apoC-II, apoB, and apoB-48 concentrations (P-interaction <0.001-0.046). Carriers of the minor allele (GC+GG) with the highest SFA concentration (>median) had a higher plasma TG concentration (P = 0.001) and higher TRL-TG (P < 0.001) than the CC genotype. In addition, participants carrying the minor G allele for rs2304672 SNP and with a higher SFA concentration (>median) had higher plasma concentrations of apo C-II (P < 0.001), apo C-III (P = 0.009), and apoB-48 (P = 0.028) compared with the homozygotes for the major allele (CC). In summary, the rs2304672 polymorphism in the PER2 gene locus may influence lipid metabolism by interacting with the plasma total SEA concentration in participants with MetS. The understanding of these gene-nutrient interactions could help to provide a better knowledge of the pathogenesis in MetS.
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| 10. |
- Graham, P, et al.
(författare)
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Using multiple climate projections for assessing hydrological response to climate change in the Thukela River Basin, South Africa
- 2011
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Ingår i: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth. - : Elsevier. - 1474-7065 .- 1873-5193. ; 36:14-15, s. 727-735
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study used climate change projections from different regional approaches to assess hydrological effects on the Thukela River Basin in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Projecting impacts of future climate change onto hydrological systems can be undertaken in different ways and a variety of effects can be expected. Although simulation results from global climate models (GCMs) are typically used to project future climate, different outcomes from these projections may be obtained depending on the GCMs themselves and how they are applied, including different ways of downscaling from global to regional scales. Projections of climate change from different downscaling methods, different global climate models and different future emissions scenarios were used as input to simulations in a hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on hydrology. A total of 10 hydrological change simulations were made, resulting in a matrix of hydrological response results. This matrix included results from dynamically downscaled climate change projections from the same regional climate model (RCM) using an ensemble of three GCMs and three global emissions scenarios, and from statistically downscaled projections using results from five GCMs with the same emissions scenario. Although the matrix of results does not provide complete and consistent coverage of potential uncertainties from the different methods, some robust results were identified. In some regards, the results were in agreement and consistent for the different simulations. For others, particularly rainfall, the simulations showed divergence. For example, all of the statistically downscaled simulations showed an annual increase in precipitation and corresponding increase in river runoff, while the RCM downscaled simulations showed both increases and decreases in runoff. According to the two projections that best represent runoff for the observed climate, increase runoff would generally be expected for this basin in the future. Dealing with such variability in results is not atypical for assessing climate change impacts in Africa and practitioners are faced with how to interpret them. This work highlights the need for additional, well-coordinated regional climate downscaling for the region to further define the range of uncertainties involved.
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