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- Lee, Jae Young, et al.
(författare)
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Predicted temperature-increase-induced global health burden and its regional variability
- 2019
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Ingår i: Environment International. - : Elsevier. - 0160-4120 .- 1873-6750. ; 131
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An increase in the global health burden of temperature was projected for 459 locations in 28 countries worldwide under four representative concentration pathway scenarios until 2099. We determined that the amount of temperature increase for each 100 ppm increase in global CO2 concentrations is nearly constant, regardless of climate scenarios. The overall average temperature increase during 2010-2099 is largest in Canada (1.16 °C/100 ppm) and Finland (1.14 °C/100 ppm), while it is smallest in Ireland (0.62 °C/100 ppm) and Argentina (0.63 °C/100 ppm). In addition, for each 1 °C temperature increase, the amount of excess mortality is increased largely in tropical countries such as Vietnam (10.34%p/°C) and the Philippines (8.18%p/°C), while it is decreased in Ireland (-0.92%p/°C) and Australia (-0.32%p/°C). To understand the regional variability in temperature increase and mortality, we performed a regression-based modeling. We observed that the projected temperature increase is highly correlated with daily temperature range at the location and vulnerability to temperature increase is affected by health expenditure, and proportions of obese and elderly population.
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| 2. |
- Sera, Francesco, et al.
(författare)
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How urban characteristics affect vulnerability to heat and cold : a multi-country analysis
- 2019
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Ingår i: International Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press. - 0300-5771 .- 1464-3685. ; 48:4, s. 1101-1112
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The health burden associated with temperature is expected to increase due to a warming climate. Populations living in cities are likely to be particularly at risk, but the role of urban characteristics in modifying the direct effects of temperature on health is still unclear. In this contribution, we used a multi-country dataset to study effect modification of temperature-mortality relationships by a range of city-specific indicators.METHODS: We collected ambient temperature and mortality daily time-series data for 340 cities in 22 countries, in periods between 1985 and 2014. Standardized measures of demographic, socio-economic, infrastructural and environmental indicators were derived from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Regional and Metropolitan Database. We used distributed lag non-linear and multivariate meta-regression models to estimate fractions of mortality attributable to heat and cold (AF%) in each city, and to evaluate the effect modification of each indicator across cities.RESULTS: Heat- and cold-related deaths amounted to 0.54% (95% confidence interval: 0.49 to 0.58%) and 6.05% (5.59 to 6.36%) of total deaths, respectively. Several city indicators modify the effect of heat, with a higher mortality impact associated with increases in population density, fine particles (PM2.5), gross domestic product (GDP) and Gini index (a measure of income inequality), whereas higher levels of green spaces were linked with a decreased effect of heat.CONCLUSIONS: This represents the largest study to date assessing the effect modification of temperature-mortality relationships. Evidence from this study can inform public-health interventions and urban planning under various climate-change and urban-development scenarios.
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| 3. |
- Sperr, Wolfgang R., et al.
(författare)
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International prognostic scoring system for mastocytosis (IPSM) : a retrospective cohort study
- 2019
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Ingår i: The Lancet Haematology. - : ELSEVIER SCI LTD. - 2352-3026. ; 6:12, s. E638-E649
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The WHO classification separates mastocytosis into distinct variants, but prognostication remains a clinical challenge. The aim of this study was to improve prognostication for patients with mastocytosis. Methods We analysed data of the registry of the European Competence Network on Mastocytosis including 1639 patients (age 17-90 years) diagnosed with mastocytosis according to WHO criteria between Jan 12, 1978, and March 16, 2017. Univariate and multivariate analyses with Cox regression were applied to identify prognostic variables predicting survival outcomes and to establish a prognostic score. We validated this International Prognostic Scoring System in Mastocytosis (IPSM) with data of 462 patients (age 17-79 years) from the Spanish network Red Espanola de Mastocitosis diagnosed between Jan 22, 1998, and Nov 2, 2017. Findings The prognostic value of the WHO classification was confirmed in our study (p<0.0001). For patients with non-advanced mastocytosis (n=1380), we identified age 60 years or older (HR 10.75, 95% CI 5.68-20.32) and a concentration of alkaline phosphatase 100 U/L or higher (2.91, 1.60-5.30) as additional independent prognostic variables for overall survival. The resulting scoring system divided patients with non-advanced mastocytosis into three groups: low (no risk factors), intermediate 1 (one risk factor), and intermediate 2 (two risk factors). Overall survival and progression-free survival differed significantly among these groups (p<0.0001). In patients with advanced mastocytosis (n=259), age 60 years or older (HR 2.14, 95% CI 1.42-3.22), a concentration of tryptase 125 ng/mL or higher (1.81, 1.20-2.75), a leukocyte count of 16 x 10(9) per L or higher (1.88, 1.27-2.79), haemoglobin of 11 g/dL or lower (1.71, 1.13-2.57), a platelet count of 100 x 10(9) per L or lower (1.63, 1.13-2.34), and skin involvement (0.46, 0.30-0.69) were prognostic variables. Based on these variables, a separate score for advanced mastocytosis with four risk categories was established, with significantly different outcomes for overall survival and progression-free survival (p<0.0001). The prognostic value of both scores was confirmed in 413 patients with non-advanced disease and 49 with advanced mastocytosis from the validation cohort. Interpretation The IPSM scores for patients with non-advanced and advanced mastocytosis can be used to predict survival outcomes and guide treatment decisions. However, the predictive value of the IPSM needs to be confirmed in forthcoming trials. Copyright (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 4. |
- Valent, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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The Data Registry of the European Competence Network on Mastocytosis (ECNM) : Set Up, Projects, and Perspectives
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV. - 2213-2198 .- 2213-2201. ; 7:1, s. 81-87
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Mastocytosis is a unique hematologic neoplasm with complex biology and pathology and a variable clinical course. The disease can essentially be divided into cutaneous mastocytosis (CM) and systemic mastocytosis (SM). In adults, SM is diagnosed in most cases and manifests as either indolent or advanced disease. Patients with advanced SM have an unfavorable prognosis with reduced survival. However, so far, little is known about the prevalence of various categories of SM and about prognostic factors. In an attempt to learn more about the behavior and evolution of various forms of CM and SM, the European Competence Network on Mastocytosis (ECNM) initiated a mastocytosis registry in 2012. In this article, the set up and start phase of this registry are described. Until 2018, more than 3000 patients from 12 countries and 25 centers have been enrolled. In a majority of all patients, robust follow-up data and relevant clinical end points are available. Using this data set, a series of registry projects have been launched, with the aim to validate previously identified diagnostic and prognostic variables and to identify new disease-related and patient-related parameters in various forms of mastocytosis. Moreover, the core data set of the registry will be useful to establish multiparametric scoring systems through which prognostication and individualized management of patients with mastocytosis should improve in the foreseeable future. (C) 2019 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology
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