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- Brandimarte, Luigia, et al.
(författare)
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Relation Between the North-Atlantic Oscillation and Hydroclimatic Conditions in Mediterranean Areas
- 2011
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Ingår i: Water Resources Management. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0920-4741 .- 1573-1650. ; 25:5, s. 1269-1279
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Mediterranean basins are known for their susceptibility to water stress conditions resulting from a reduction in winter-season precipitation. This region is also prone to the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a large-scale climatic pattern associated with a displacement of air mass between the arctic and the subtropical Atlantic. Even though previous studies have demonstrated the impact of the NAO on winter climate conditions in Europe and Northern Africa, it is still unclear to what extent the NAO is related to hydroclimatic patterns in Mediterranean areas and whether it can explain its recent drought history. To this end, this study investigates the interdependence between the NAO and winter precipitation, river flow and temperature in two Mediterranean regions: Southern Italy and Nile Delta (Egypt). The outcomes show the presence of significant connections between the NAO, winter rainfall and river discharge.
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| 4. |
- Brandimarte, Luigia, et al.
(författare)
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Uncertainty in design flood profiles derived by hydraulic modelling
- 2012
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Ingår i: Hydrology Research. - : IWA Publishing. - 0029-1277 .- 2224-7955 .- 1998-9563. ; 43:6, s. 753-761
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The scientific literature has widely shown that hydraulic modelling is affected by many sources of uncertainty (e.g. model structure, input data, model parameters). However, when hydraulic models are used for engineering purposes (e.g. flood defense design), there is still a tendency to make a deterministic use of them. More specifically, the prediction of flood design profiles is often based on the outcomes of a calibrated hydraulic model. Despite the good results in model calibration, this prediction is affected by significant uncertainty, which is commonly considered by adding a freeboard to the simulated flood profile. A more accurate approach would require an explicit analysis of the sources of uncertainty affecting hydraulic modelling and design flood estimation. This paper proposes an alternative approach, which is based on the use of uncertain flood profiles, where the most significant sources of uncertainty are explicitly analyzed. An application to the Po river reach between Cremona and Borgoforte (Italy) is used to illustrate the proposed framework and compare it to the traditional approach. This paper shows that the deterministic approach underestimates the design flood profile and questions whether the freeboard, often arbitrarily defined, might lead to a false perception of additional safety levels.
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- Buchecker, M., et al.
(författare)
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The role of risk perception in making flood risk management more effective
- 2013
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Ingår i: Natural hazards and earth system sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1561-8633 .- 1684-9981. ; 13, s. 3013-3030
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over the last few decades, Europe has suffered from a number of severe flood events and, as a result, there has been a growing interest in probing alternative approaches to managing flood risk via prevention measures. A literature review reveals that, although in the last decades risk evaluation has been recognized as key element of risk management, and risk assessment methodologies (including risk analysis and evaluation) have been improved by including social, economic, cultural, historical and political conditions, the theoretical schemes are not yet applied in practice. One main reason for this shortcoming is that risk perception literature is mainly of universal and theoretical nature and cannot provide the necessary details to implement a comprehensive risk evaluation. This paper therefore aims to explore a procedure that allows the inclusion of stakeholders' perceptions of prevention measures in risk assessment. It proposes to adopt methods of risk communication (both one-way and two-way communication) in risk assessment with the final aim of making flood risk management more effective. The proposed procedure not only focuses on the effect of discursive risk communication on risk perception, and on achieving a shared assessment of the prevention alternatives, but also considers the effects of the communication process on perceived uncertainties, accepted risk levels, and trust in the managing institutions.The effectiveness of this combined procedure has been studied and illustrated using the example of the participatory flood prevention assessment process on the Sihl River in Zurich, Switzerland. The main findings of the case study suggest that the proposed procedure performed well, but that it needs some adaptations for it to be applicable in different contexts and to allow a (semi-) quantitative estimation of risk perception to be used as an indicator of adaptive capacity.
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| 6. |
- Castellarin, A., et al.
(författare)
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Floodplain management strategies for flood attenuation in the river Po
- 2011
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Ingår i: Rivers Research and Applications. - : Wiley. - 1535-1459 .- 1535-1467. ; 27:8, s. 1037-1047
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper analyses the effects of different floodplain management policies on flood hazard using a 350 km reach of the river Po (Italy) as a case study. The river Po is the longest Italian river, and the largest in terms of streamflow. The middle-lower Po flows East some 350 km in the Pianura Padana (Po Valley), a very important agricultural region and industrial heart of Northern Italy. This portion of the river consists of a main channel (200–500 m wide) and a floodplain (overall width from 200 m to 5 km) confined by two continuous artificial embankments. Floodplains are densely cultivated, and a significant portion of these areas is protected against frequent flooding by a system of minor dykes, which impacts significantly the hydraulic behaviour of the middle-lower Po during major flood events. This study aims at investigating the effects of the adoption of different floodplain management strategies (e.g. raising, lowering or removing the minor dyke system) on the hydrodynamics of the middle-lower Po and, in particular, on flood-risk mitigation. This is a crucial task for institutions and public bodies in charge of formulating robust flood risk management strategies for the river Po. Furthermore, the results of this study are of interest for other European water-related public bodies managing large river basins, in the light of the recent European Directive 2007/60/EC on the assessment and management of flood risks. The analysis is performed by means of a quasi-2D hydraulic model, which has been developed on the basis of a laser-scanning DTM and a large amount of calibration data recorded during the significant flood event of October 2000.
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- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, et al.
(författare)
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A hydraulic study on the applicability of flood rating curves
- 2011
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Ingår i: Hydrology Research. - : IWA Publishing. - 0029-1277 .- 2224-7955. ; 42:1, s. 10-19
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Several hydrological studies have shown that river discharge records are affected by significant uncertainty. This uncertainty is expected to be very high for river flow data referred to flood events, when the stage–discharge rating curve is extrapolated far beyond the measurement range. This study examines the standard methodologies for the construction and extrapolation of rating curves to extreme flow depths and shows the need of proper approaches to reduce the uncertainty of flood discharge data. To this end, a comprehensive analysis is performed on a 16▒km reach of the River Po (Italy) where five hydraulic models (HEC-RAS) were built. The results of five topographical surveys conducted during the last 50 years are used as geometric input. The application demonstrates that hydraulically built stage–discharge curves for the five cases differ only for ordinary flows, so that a common rating curve for flood discharges can be derived. This result confirms the validity of statistical approaches to the estimation of the so-called ‘flood rating curve’, a unique stage–discharge curve based on data of contemporaneous annual maxima of stage and discharge values, which appears insensitive to marginal changes in river geometry.
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| 9. |
- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, et al.
(författare)
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Effect of observation errors on the uncertainty of design floods
- 2012
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Ingår i: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth. - : Elsevier BV. - 1474-7065 .- 1873-5193. ; 42-44, s. 85-90
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study investigates the uncertainty in the estimation of the design flood induced by errors in flood data. We initially describe and critically discuss the main sources of uncertainty affecting river discharge data, when they are derived using stage-discharge rating curves. Then, different error structures are used to investigate the effects of flood data errors on design flood estimation. Annual maxima values of river discharge observed on the Po River (Italy) at Pontelagoscuro are used as an example. The study demonstrates that observation errors may have a significant impact on the uncertainty of design floods, especially when the rating curve is affected by systematic errors.
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| 10. |
- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, et al.
(författare)
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Flood fatalities in Africa : From diagnosis to mitigation
- 2010
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 37:22
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Flood-related fatalities in Africa, as well as associated economic losses, have increased dramatically over the past half-century. There is a growing global concern about the need to identify the causes for such increased flood damages. To this end, we analyze a large, consistent and reliable dataset of floods in Africa. Identification of causes is not easy given the diverse economic settings, demographic distribution and hydro-climatic conditions of the African continent. On the other hand, many African river basins have a relatively low level of human disturbance and, therefore, provide a unique opportunity to analyze climatic effects on floods. We find that intensive and unplanned human settlements in flood-prone areas appears to be playing a major role in increasing flood risk. Timely and economically sustainable actions, such as the discouragement of human settlements in flood-prone areas and the introduction of early warning systems are, therefore, urgently needed.
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