| 1. |
|
|
| 2. |
- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(författare)
-
Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
|
|
| 3. |
- Chattopadhyay, D., et al.
(författare)
-
Modeling Long-term Variability of Renewable Energy in Generation Planning
- 2020
-
Ingår i: 2020 IEEE POWER & ENERGY SOCIETY GENERAL MEETING (PESGM). - : IEEE.
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Long term variability of solar and wind generation including inter- and intra-annual variability, as well as contingencies around low solar/wind availability periods are typically ignored in generation planning. This study explores planning methodology to capture long term variability including the computational challenges such a model presents. We use a case study for Guinea-Bissau - a small country in Africa transitioning from thermal to potentially high solar penetration in future. We show that long term variability and renewable contingency planning may have a strong impact on the selection of solar PV in such cases. We also show that batteries can increase the economic viability of solar PV in light of the inter-annual variability.
|
|
| 4. |
- Mumme, Steffen, et al.
(författare)
-
Wherever I may roam—Human activity alters movements of red deer (Cervus elaphus) and elk (Cervus canadensis) across two continents
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - Chichester : Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Inc.. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 29:20, s. 5788-5801
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Human activity and associated landscape modifications alter the movements of animals with consequences for populations and ecosystems worldwide. Species performing long-distance movements are thought to be particularly sensitive to human impact. Despite the increasing anthropogenic pressure, it remains challenging to understand and predict animals' responses to human activity. Here we address this knowledge gap using 1206 Global Positioning System movement trajectories of 815 individuals from 14 red deer (Cervus elaphus) and 14 elk (Cervus canadensis) populations spanning wide environmental gradients, namely the latitudinal range from the Alps to Scandinavia in Europe, and the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem in North America. We measured individual-level movements relative to the environmental context, or movement expression, using the standardized metric Intensity of Use, reflecting both the directionality and extent of movements. We expected movement expression to be affected by resource (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) predictability and topography, but those factors to be superseded by human impact. Red deer and elk movement expression varied along a continuum, from highly segmented trajectories over relatively small areas (high intensity of use), to directed transitions through restricted corridors (low intensity of use). Human activity (Human Footprint Index, HFI) was the strongest driver of movement expression, with a steep increase in Intensity of Use as HFI increased, but only until a threshold was reached. After exceeding this level of impact, the Intensity of Use remained unchanged. These results indicate the overall sensitivity of Cervus movement expression to human activity and suggest a limitation of plastic responses under high human pressure, despite the species also occurring in human-dominated landscapes. Our work represents the first comparison of metric-based movement expression across widely distributed populations of a deer genus, contributing to the understanding and prediction of animals' responses to human activity. Global Change Biology© 2023 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
|
|
| 5. |
- Pastorelli, Giada, et al.
(författare)
-
Constraining the thermally pulsing asymptotic giant branch phase with resolved stellar populations in the Large Magellanic Cloud
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 498:3, s. 3283-3301
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Reliable models of the thermally pulsing asymptotic giant branch (TP-AGB) phase are of critical importance across astrophysics, including our interpretation of the spectral energy distribution of galaxies, cosmic dust production, and enrichment of the interstellar medium. With the aim of improving sets of stellar isochrones that include a detailed description of the TP-AGB phase, we extend our recent calibration of the AGB population in the Small Magellanic Cloud (SMC) to the more metal-rich Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). We model the LMC stellar populations with the TRILEGAL code, using the spatially resolved star formation history derived from the VISTA survey. We characterize the efficiency of the third dredge-up by matching the star counts and the K-s-band luminosity functions of the AGB stars identified in the LMC. In line with previous findings, we confirm that, compared to the SMC, the third dredge-up in AGB stars of the LMC is somewhat less efficient, as a consequence of the higher metallicity. The predicted range of initial mass of C-rich stars is between M-i approximate to 1.7 and 3 M-circle dot at Z(i) = 0.008. We show how the inclusion of new opacity data in the carbon star spectra will improve the performance of our models. We discuss the predicted lifetimes, integrated luminosities, and mass-loss rate distributions of the calibrated models. The results of our calibration are included in updated stellar isochrones publicly available.
|
|
| 6. |
- Potter van Loon, Albertine, et al.
(författare)
-
Atypical variability in TMY-based power systems
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Energy for Sustainable Development. - : ELSEVIER. - 0973-0826 .- 2352-4669. ; 54, s. 139-147
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents the results of an analysis that explores how Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) informed power system models perform when exposed to atypical variability. A simplified power system planning model is tested for two case studies in Guinea-Bissau and Turkey. A TMY proxy is compared against 24-year timeseries datasets containing hourly resolution solar PV and wind capacity factor data. Results show that unforeseen shortages in VRE generation and additional expenses are approximately 36 GWh and 10 million USD for Guinea-Bissau, and 92 GWh and 232,000 million TL for Turkey. Moreover, Turkey faces unmet demand of up to 50 TWh. For Turkey, unmet demand is penalized at 5000 TL/MWh, explaining the high cost increase. The underperformance of the TMY-based simulated system also is responsible for 45.77 million kg of unforeseen CO2 emissions in the case of Guinea-Bissau.
|
|
| 7. |
- Van Loon, Anne F., et al.
(författare)
-
Review article: Drought as a continuum: memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems
- 2024
-
Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Droughts are often long lasting phenomena, without a distinct start or end, and with impacts cascading across sectors and systems, creating long-term legacies. Nevertheless, our current perception and management of droughts and their impacts is often event-based, which can limit the effective assessment of drought risks and reduction of drought impacts. Here, we advocate for changing this perspective and viewing drought as a hydro-eco-social continuum. We take a systems theory perspective and focus on how “memory” causes feedback and interactions between parts of the interconnected systems at different time scales. We first discuss the characteristics of the drought continuum with a focus on the hydrological, ecological, and social systems separately; and then study the system of systems. Our analysis is based on a review of the literature and a study of five cases: Chile, the Colorado River Basin in the US, Northeast Brazil, Kenya, and the Rhine River Basin in Northwest Europe. We find that the memories of past dry and wet periods, carried by both bio-physical (e.g. groundwater, vegetation) and social systems (e.g. people, governance), influence how future drought risk manifests. We identify four archetypes of drought dynamics: Impact & recovery; Slow resilience-building; Gradual collapse; and High resilience, big shock. The interactions between the hydrological, ecological and social systems result in systems shifting between these types, which plays out differently in the five case studies. We call for more research on drought preconditions and recovery in different systems, on dynamics cascading between systems and triggering system changes, and on dynamic vulnerability and maladaptation. Additionally, we argue for more continuous monitoring of drought hazards and impacts, modelling tools that better incorporate memories and adaptation responses, and management strategies that increase social and institutional memory to better deal with the complex hydro-eco-social drought continuum and identify effective pathways to adaptation.
|
|
