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Ensemble modelling ...
Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making to support Emergency Disease Management
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- Webb, Colleen T. (author)
- Colorado State University, CO 80523 USA
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- Ferrari, Matthew (author)
- Penn State University, PA 16802 USA
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- Lindström, Tom (author)
- Linköpings universitet,Teoretisk Biologi,Tekniska fakulteten,Colorado State University, CO 80523 USA
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- Carpenter, Tim (author)
- Massey University, New Zealand
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- Duerr, Salome (author)
- University of Bern, Switzerland
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- Garner, Graeme (author)
- Department Agriculture, Australia
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- Jewell, Chris (author)
- Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand
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- Stevenson, Mark (author)
- University of Melbourne, Australia
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- Ward, Michael P. (author)
- University of Sydney, Australia
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- Werkman, Marleen (author)
- CVI, Netherlands
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- Backer, Jantien (author)
- CVI, Netherlands
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- Tildesley, Michael (author)
- University of Warwick, England
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(creator_code:org_t)
- ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, 2017
- 2017
- English.
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In: Preventive Veterinary Medicine. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV. - 0167-5877 .- 1873-1716. ; 138, s. 124-133
- Related links:
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http://wrap.warwick....
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https://urn.kb.se/re...
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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Abstract
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- Epidemiological models in animal health are commonly used as decision-support tools to understand the impact of various control actions on infection spread in susceptible populations. Different models contain different assumptions and parameterizations, and policy decisions might be improved by considering outputs from multiple models. However, a transparent decision-support framework to integrate outputs from multiple models is nascent in epidemiology. Ensemble modelling and structured decision-making integrate the outputs of multiple models, compare policy actions and support policy decision-making. We briefly review the epidemiological application of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making and illustrate the potential of these methods using foot and mouth disease (FMD) models. In case study one, we apply structured decision-making to compare five possible control actions across three FMD models and show which control actions and outbreak costs are robustly supported and which are impacted by model uncertainty. In case study two, we develop a methodology for weighting the outputs of different models and show how different weighting schemes may impact the choice of control action. Using these case studies, we broadly illustrate the potential of ensemble modelling and structured decision-making in epidemiology to provide better information for decision-making and outline necessary development of these methods for their further application. Crown Copyright (C) 2017 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Subject headings
- SAMHÄLLSVETENSKAP -- Ekonomi och näringsliv -- Nationalekonomi (hsv//swe)
- SOCIAL SCIENCES -- Economics and Business -- Economics (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- Ensemble modelling; Structured decision-making; Policy; Disease management; Foot and mouth disease
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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- By the author/editor
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Webb, Colleen T.
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Ferrari, Matthew
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Lindström, Tom
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Carpenter, Tim
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Duerr, Salome
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Garner, Graeme
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show more...
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Jewell, Chris
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Stevenson, Mark
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Ward, Michael P.
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Werkman, Marleen
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Backer, Jantien
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Tildesley, Micha ...
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show less...
- About the subject
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- SOCIAL SCIENCES
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SOCIAL SCIENCES
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and Economics and Bu ...
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and Economics
- Articles in the publication
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Preventive Veter ...
- By the university
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Linköping University