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GCM characteristics...
GCM characteristics explain the majority of uncertainty in projected 21st century terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance
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- Ahlström, Anders (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Faculty of Science
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- Smith, Benjamin (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science,Faculty of Science
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- Lindström, Johan (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Matematisk statistik,Matematikcentrum,Institutioner vid LTH,Lunds Tekniska Högskola,Mathematical Statistics,Centre for Mathematical Sciences,Departments at LTH,Faculty of Engineering, LTH
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- Rummukainen, Markku (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Centrum för miljö- och klimatvetenskap (CEC),Naturvetenskapliga fakulteten,Institutionen för naturgeografi och ekosystemvetenskap,Centre for Environmental and Climate Science (CEC),Faculty of Science,Dept of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science
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- Bertacchi Uvo, Cintia (author)
- Lund University,Lunds universitet,Avdelningen för Teknisk vattenresurslära,Institutionen för bygg- och miljöteknologi,Institutioner vid LTH,Lunds Tekniska Högskola,Division of Water Resources Engineering,Department of Building and Environmental Technology,Departments at LTH,Faculty of Engineering, LTH
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(creator_code:org_t)
- 2013-03-07
- 2013
- English.
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In: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4189. ; 10:3, s. 1517-1528
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Abstract
Subject headings
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- One of the largest sources of uncertainties in modelling of the future global climate is the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Studies have shown that it is likely that the extant land sink of carbon will weaken in a warming climate. Should this happen, a larger portion of the annual carbon dioxide emissions will remain in the atmosphere, and further increase global warming, which in turn may further weaken the land sink. We investigate the potential sensitivity of global terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance to differences in future climate simulated by four general circulation models (GCMs) under three different CO2 concentration scenarios. We find that the response in simulated carbon balance is more influenced by GCMs than CO2 concentration scenarios. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) reveals differences among GCMs in simulated SST variability leading to decreased tropical ecosystem productivity in two out of four GCMs. We extract parameters describing GCM characteristics by parameterizing a statistical emulator mimicking the carbon balance response simulated by a full dynamic ecosystem model. By sampling two GCM-specific parameters and global temperatures we create 60 new "artificial" GCMs and investigate the extent to which the GCM characteristics may explain the uncertainty in global carbon balance under future radiative forcing. Differences among GCMs in the representation of SST variability and ENSO and its effect on precipitation and temperature patterns explain the majority of the uncertainty in the future evolution of global terrestrial ecosystem carbon in our analysis. We suggest that the characterisation and evaluation of patterns and trends in simulated SST variability should be a priority for the further development of GCMs, in particular as vegetation dynamics and carbon cycle feedbacks are incorporated.
Subject headings
- TEKNIK OCH TEKNOLOGIER -- Samhällsbyggnadsteknik -- Vattenteknik (hsv//swe)
- ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY -- Civil Engineering -- Water Engineering (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Matematik -- Sannolikhetsteori och statistik (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Mathematics -- Probability Theory and Statistics (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Naturgeografi (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Physical Geography (hsv//eng)
Publication and Content Type
- art (subject category)
- ref (subject category)
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