Estimation of return levels of sea level along the Swedish coast by the method of r largest annual maxima

• Estimation of so-called return values of environmental extremes, of importance in e.g. ocean and coastal engineering, is a challenging problem. Several approaches have been suggested in the literature. In this work, we examine closer a natural extension of the classical approach of block maxima: the r largest annual maxima. We investigate the performance on measurements of sea level at three locations along the Swedish coastline, and pay attention to the practical implications of the assumptions of the method. Return levels are estimated for various return periods along with related confidence intervals and compared with the conventional block-maxima approach. We find that the upper bound of the confidence intervals is considerably reduced compared to the traditional methodology, in particular for higher return periods.

Ämnesord

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Matematik -- Sannolikhetsteori och statistik (hsv//swe)

NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Mathematics -- Probability Theory and Statistics (hsv//eng)

Publikations- och innehållstyp

ref (ämneskategori)

kon (ämneskategori)