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Causality guided machine learning model on wetland CH4 emissions across global wetlands

Yuan, Kunxiaojia (author)
Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Climate Sci Dept, Climate & Ecosyst Sci Div, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.
Zhu, Qing (author)
Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Climate Sci Dept, Climate & Ecosyst Sci Div, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.
Li, Fa (author)
Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Climate Sci Dept, Climate & Ecosyst Sci Div, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.;Univ Wisconsin Madison, Dept Forest & Wildlife Ecol, Madison, WI USA.
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Riley, William J. (author)
Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Climate Sci Dept, Climate & Ecosyst Sci Div, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.
Torn, Margaret (author)
Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Climate Sci Dept, Climate & Ecosyst Sci Div, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.
Chu, Housen (author)
Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Climate Sci Dept, Climate & Ecosyst Sci Div, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.
McNicol, Gavin (author)
Univ Illinois, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Chicago, IL USA.
Chen, Min (author)
Univ Wisconsin Madison, Dept Forest & Wildlife Ecol, Madison, WI USA.
Knox, Sara (author)
Univ British Columbia, Dept Geog, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Delwiche, Kyle (author)
Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Environm Sci Policy & Management, Berkeley, CA USA.
Wu, Huayi (author)
Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Informat Engn Surveying Mapping & Re, Wuhan, Peoples R China.
Baldocchi, Dennis (author)
Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Environm Sci Policy & Management, Berkeley, CA USA.
Ma, Hongxu (author)
Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Geog, Berkeley, CA USA.
Desai, Ankur R. (author)
Univ Wisconsin Madison, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Madison, WI USA.
Chen, Jiquan (author)
Michigan State Univ, Dept Geog Environm & Spatial Sci, E Lansing, MI USA.
Sachs, Torsten (author)
GFZ German Res Ctr Geosci, Potsdam, Germany.
Ueyama, Masahito (author)
Osaka Prefecture Univ, Grad Sch Life & Environm Sci, Sakai, Japan.
Sonnentag, Oliver (author)
Univ Montreal, Dept Geog, Montreal, PQ, Canada.
Helbig, Manuel (author)
Dalhousie Univ, Dept Phys & Atmospher Sci, Halifax, NS, Canada.
Tuittila, Eeva-Stiina (author)
Univ Eastern Finland, Sch Forest Sci, Joesnuu, Finland.
Jurasinski, Gerald (author)
Univ Rostock, Landscape Ecol, Rostock, Germany.
Koebsch, Franziska (author)
Univ Gottingen, Digital Forest, Gottingen, Germany.
Campbell, David (author)
Univ Waikato, Sch Sci, Hamilton, New Zealand.
Schmid, Hans Peter (author)
Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res, Karlsruhe, Germany.
Lohila, Annalea (author)
Univ Helsinki, Inst Atmospher & Earth Syst Res Forest Sci, Helsinki, Finland.
Goeckede, Mathias (author)
Max Planck Inst Biogeochem, Dept Biogeochem Signals, Jena, Germany.
Nilsson, Mats B. (author)
Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Forest Ecol & Management, Umeå, Sweden.
Friborg, Thomas (author)
Univ Copenhagen, Dept Geosci & Nat Resource Management, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Jansen, Joachim, 1989- (author)
Uppsala universitet,Institutionen för ekologi och genetik
Zona, Donatella (author)
San Diego State Univ, Dept Biol, San Diego, CA USA.
Euskirchen, Eugenie (author)
Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Inst Arctic Biol, Fairbanks, AK USA.
Ward, Eric J. (author)
US Geol Survey, Wetland & Aquat Res Ctr, Lafayette, LA USA.
Bohrer, Gil (author)
Ohio State Univ, Dept Civil Environm & Geodet Engn, Columbus, OH USA.
Jin, Zhenong (author)
Univ Minnesota, Dept Bioprod & Biosyst Engn, St Paul, MN USA.
Liu, Licheng (author)
Univ Minnesota, Dept Bioprod & Biosyst Engn, St Paul, MN USA.
Iwata, Hiroki (author)
Shinshu Univ, Fac Sci, Dept Environm Sci, Matsumoto, Japan.
Goodrich, Jordan (author)
Univ Waikato, Sch Sci, Hamilton, New Zealand.
Jackson, Robert (author)
Stanford Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Stanford, CA USA.
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Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Climate Sci Dept, Climate & Ecosyst Sci Div, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Climate Sci Dept, Climate & Ecosyst Sci Div, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA.;Univ Wisconsin Madison, Dept Forest & Wildlife Ecol, Madison, WI USA. (creator_code:org_t)
Elsevier, 2022
2022
English.
In: Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. - : Elsevier. - 0168-1923 .- 1873-2240. ; 324
Related links:
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https://doi.org/10.1...
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  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)
Abstract Subject headings
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  • Wetland CH4 emissions are among the most uncertain components of the global CH4 budget. The complex nature of wetland CH4 processes makes it challenging to identify causal relationships for improving our understanding and predictability of CH4 emissions. In this study, we used the flux measurements of CH4 from eddy covariance towers (30 sites from 4 wetlands types: bog, fen, marsh, and wet tundra) to construct a causality-constrained machine learning (ML) framework to explain the regulative factors and to capture CH4 emissions at sub -seasonal scale. We found that soil temperature is the dominant factor for CH4 emissions in all studied wetland types. Ecosystem respiration (CO2) and gross primary productivity exert controls at bog, fen, and marsh sites with lagged responses of days to weeks. Integrating these asynchronous environmental and biological causal relationships in predictive models significantly improved model performance. More importantly, modeled CH4 emissions differed by up to a factor of 4 under a +1C warming scenario when causality constraints were considered. These results highlight the significant role of causality in modeling wetland CH(4 )emissions especially under future warming conditions, while traditional data-driven ML models may reproduce observations for the wrong reasons. Our proposed causality-guided model could benefit predictive modeling, large-scale upscaling, data gap-filling, and surrogate modeling of wetland CH4 emissions within earth system land models.

Subject headings

NATURVETENSKAP  -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Klimatforskning (hsv//swe)
NATURAL SCIENCES  -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Climate Research (hsv//eng)

Keyword

Eddy covariance CH4 emission
Wetlands
Causal inference
Machine learning

Publication and Content Type

ref (subject category)
art (subject category)

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