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- Dimmock, Andrew P., et al.
(författare)
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Modeling the Geomagnetic Response to the September 2017 Space Weather Event Over Fennoscandia Using the Space Weather Modeling Framework : Studying the Impacts of Spatial Resolution
- 2021
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Ingår i: Space Weather. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 1542-7390. ; 19:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We must be able to predict and mitigate against geomagnetically induced current (GIC) effects to minimize socio-economic impacts. This study employs the space weather modeling framework (SWMF) to model the geomagnetic response over Fennoscandia to the September 7-8, 2017 event. Of key importance to this study is the effects of spatial resolution in terms of regional forecasts and improved GIC modeling results. Therefore, we ran the model at comparatively low, medium, and high spatial resolutions. The virtual magnetometers from each model run are compared with observations from the IMAGE magnetometer network across various latitudes and over regional-scales. The virtual magnetometer data from the SWMF are coupled with a local ground conductivity model which is used to calculate the geoelectric field and estimate GICs in a Finnish natural gas pipeline. This investigation has lead to several important results in which higher resolution yielded: (1) more realistic amplitudes and timings of GICs, (2) higher amplitude geomagnetic disturbances across latitudes, and (3) increased regional variations in terms of differences between stations. Despite this, substorms remain a significant challenge to surface magnetic field prediction from global magnetohydrodynamic modeling. For example, in the presence of multiple large substorms, the associated large-amplitude depressions were not captured, which caused the largest model-data deviations. The results from this work are of key importance to both modelers and space weather operators. Particularly when the goal is to obtain improved regional forecasts of geomagnetic disturbances and/or more realistic estimates of the geoelectric field.
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| 2. |
- Engebretson, Mark J., et al.
(författare)
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Nighttime Magnetic Perturbation Events Observed in Arctic Canada: 3. Occurrence and Amplitude as Functions of Magnetic Latitude, Local Time, and Magnetic Disturbance Indices
- 2021
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Ingår i: Space Weather. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 1542-7390. ; 19:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Rapid changes of magnetic fields associated with nighttime magnetic perturbation events (MPEs) with amplitudes |ΔB| of hundreds of nT and 5–10 min duration can induce geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) that can harm technological systems. This study compares the occurrence and amplitude of nighttime MPEs with |dB/dt| ≥ 6 nT/s observed during 2015 and 2017 at five stations in Arctic Canada ranging from 64.7° to 75.2° in corrected geomagnetic latitude (MLAT) as functions of magnetic local time (MLT), the SME (SuperMAG version of AE) and SYM/H magnetic indices, and time delay after substorm onsets. Although most MPEs occurred within 30 min after a substorm onset, ∼10% of those observed at the four lower latitude stations occurred over two hours after the most recent onset. A broad distribution in local time appeared at all five stations between 1700 and 0100 MLT, and a narrower distribution appeared at the lower latitude stations between 0200 and 0700 MLT. There was little or no correlation between MPE amplitude and the SYM/H index; most MPEs at all stations occurred for SYM/H values between −40 and 0 nT. SME index values for MPEs observed >1 h after the most recent substorm onset fell in the lower half of the range of SME values for events during substorms, and dipolarizations in synchronous orbit at GOES 13 during these events were weaker or more often nonexistent. These observations suggest that substorms are neither necessary nor sufficient to cause MPEs, and hence predictions of GICs cannot focus solely on substorms.
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