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- Pantazis, N, et al.
(författare)
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Determining the likely place of HIV acquisition for migrants in Europe combining subject-specific information and biomarkers data
- 2019
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Ingår i: Statistical methods in medical research. - : SAGE Publications. - 1477-0334 .- 0962-2802. ; 28:7, s. 1979-1997
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In most HIV-positive individuals, infection time is only known to lie between the time an individual started being at risk for HIV and diagnosis time. However, a more accurate estimate of infection time is very important in certain cases. For example, one of the objectives of the Advancing Migrant Access to Health Services in Europe (aMASE) study was to determine if HIV-positive migrants, diagnosed in Europe, were infected pre- or post-migration. We propose a method to derive subject-specific estimates of unknown infection times using information from HIV biomarkers’ measurements, demographic, clinical, and behavioral data. We assume that CD4 cell count (CD4) and HIV-RNA viral load trends after HIV infection follow a bivariate linear mixed model. Using post-diagnosis CD4 and viral load measurements and applying the Bayes’ rule, we derived the posterior distribution of the HIV infection time, whereas the prior distribution was informed by AIDS status at diagnosis and behavioral data. Parameters of the CD4–viral load and time-to-AIDS models were estimated using data from a large study of individuals with known HIV infection times (CASCADE). Simulations showed substantial predictive ability (e.g. 84% of the infections were correctly classified as pre- or post-migration). Application to the aMASE study ( n = 2009) showed that 47% of African migrants and 67% to 72% of migrants from other regions were most likely infected post-migration. Applying a Bayesian method based on bivariate modeling of CD4 and viral load, and subject-specific information, we found that the majority of HIV-positive migrants in aMASE were most likely infected after their migration to Europe.
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- Winkler, M., et al.
(författare)
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The rich sides of mountain summits - a pan-European view on aspect preferences of alpine plants
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 0305-0270. ; 43:11, s. 2261-2273
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aim In the alpine life zone, plant diversity is strongly determined by local topography and microclimate. We assessed the extent to which aspect and its relatedness to temperature affect plant species diversity, and the colonization and disappearance of species on alpine summits on a pan-European scale. Methods Vascular plant species and their percentage cover were recorded in permanent plots in each cardinal direction on 123 summits in 32 regions across Europe. For a subset from 17 regions, resurvey data and 6-year soil temperature series were available. Differences in temperature sum and Shannon index as well as species richness, colonization and disappearance of species among cardinal directions were analysed using linear mixed-effects and generalised mixed-effects models, respectively. Results Temperature sums were higher in east-and south-facing aspects than in the north-facing ones, while the west-facing ones were intermediate; differences were smallest in northern Europe. The patterns of temperature sums among aspects were consistent among years. In temperate regions, thermal differences were reflected by plant diversity, whereas this relationship was weaker or absent on Mediterranean and boreal mountains. Colonization of species was positively related to temperature on Mediterranean and temperate mountains, whereas disappearance of species was not related to temperature. Main conclusions Thermal differences caused by solar radiation determine plant species diversity on temperate mountains. Advantages for plants on eastern slopes may result from the combined effects of a longer diurnal period of radiation due to convection cloud effects in the afternoon and the sheltered position against the prevailing westerly winds. In northern Europe, long summer days and low sun angles can even out differences among aspects. On Mediterranean summits, summer drought may limit species numbers on the warmer slopes. Warmer aspects support a higher number of colonization events. Hence, aspect can be a principal determinant of the pace of climate-induced migration processes.
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- Busse, Christian, 1989-
(författare)
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Aspects of Crack Growth in Single-Crystal Nickel-Base Superalloys
- 2017
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This Licentiate of Engineering thesis is a product of the results generated in the research project KME-702, which comprises modelling, microstructure investigations and material testing of cast nickel-base superalloys.The main objective of this work is to model the fatigue crack propagation behaviour in single-crystal nickel-base superalloys. To achieve this, the influence of the crystal orientations on the cracking behaviour is assessed. The results show that the crystal orientation is strongly affecting the material response and must be accounted for. Furthermore, a linear elastic crack driving force parameter suitable for describing crystallographic cracking has been developed. This parameter is based on resolved anisotropic stress intensity factors and is able to predict the correct crystallographic cracking plane after a transition from a Mode I crack. Finally, a method to account for inelastic deformations in a linear elastic fracture mechanics context was investigated. A residual stress field is extracted from an uncracked finite-element model with a perfectly plastic material model and superimposed on the stress field from the cracked model with a linear elastic material model to account for the inelastic deformations during the determination of the crack driving force. The modelling work is validated by material testing on two different specimen geometries at different temperatures.This Licentiate of Engineering thesis consists of two parts, where Part I gives an introduction and background to the research area, while Part II consists of three papers.
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