| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 4. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 5. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 6. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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| 7. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- 2016
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Ingår i: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
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| 8. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 9. |
- Kumar, Ramesh, et al.
(författare)
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Hydro-geochemical analysis of meltwater draining from Bilare Banga glacier, Western Himalaya
- 2019
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Ingår i: Acta Geophysica. - : Springer. - 1895-6572 .- 1895-7455. ; 67:2, s. 651-660
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The changing climate is affecting the melting process of glacier ice and snow in Himalaya and may influence the hydro-geochemistry of the glacial meltwater. This paper represents the ionic composition of discharge from Bilare Banga glacier by carrying out hydro-geochemical analysis of water samples of melting season of 2017. The pH and EC were measured on-site in field, and others parameters were examined in the laboratory. The abundance of the ions observed in meltwater has been arranged in decreasing order for cations as Ca2+ > Mg2+ > Na+ > K+ and for anions as HCO3− > SO42− > Cl− > NO3−, respectively. Analysis suggests that the meltwater is mostly dominated by Ca2+ and HCO3−. It has been observed that the ionic concentration HCO3− is dominant and Cl− is the least in the catchment. Piper plot analysis suggests that the chemical composition of the glacier discharge not only has natural origin but also has some anthropogenic input. Hydro-geochemical heterogeneity reflected the carbonate-dominated features (Ca2+–HCO3−) in the catchment. The carbonate weathering was found as the regulatory factor to control the chemistry of the glacial meltwater due to the high enrichment ratio of (Ca2+ + Mg2+) against TZ+ and (Na+ + K+). In statistical approach, PCA analysis suggests that geogenic weathering dynamics in the catchment is associated with carbonate-dominant lithology.
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| 10. |
- Reitsma, Marissa B., et al.
(författare)
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Smoking prevalence and attributable disease burden in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2017
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 389:10082, s. 1885-1906
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The scale-up of tobacco control, especially after the adoption of the Framework Convention for Tobacco Control, is a major public health success story. Nonetheless, smoking remains a leading risk for early death and disability worldwide, and therefore continues to require sustained political commitment. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) offers a robust platform through which global, regional, and national progress toward achieving smoking-related targets can be assessed. Methods We synthesised 2818 data sources with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and produced estimates of daily smoking prevalence by sex, age group, and year for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We analysed 38 risk-outcome pairs to generate estimates of smoking-attributable mortality and disease burden, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We then performed a cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by birth-year cohort to better understand temporal age patterns in smoking. We also did a decomposition analysis, in which we parsed out changes in all-cause smoking-attributable DALYs due to changes in population growth, population ageing, smoking prevalence, and risk-deleted DALY rates. Finally, we explored results by level of development using the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Worldwide, the age-standardised prevalence of daily smoking was 25.0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 24.2-25.7) for men and 5.4% (5.1-5.7) for women, representing 28.4% (25.8-31.1) and 34.4% (29.4-38.6) reductions, respectively, since 1990. A greater percentage of countries and territories achieved significant annualised rates of decline in smoking prevalence from 1990 to 2005 than in between 2005 and 2015; however, only four countries had significant annualised increases in smoking prevalence between 2005 and 2015 (Congo [Brazzaville] and Azerbaijan for men and Kuwait and Timor-Leste for women). In 2015, 11.5% of global deaths (6.4 million [95% UI 5.7-7.0 million]) were attributable to smoking worldwide, of which 52.2% took place in four countries (China, India, the USA, and Russia). Smoking was ranked among the five leading risk factors by DALYs in 109 countries and territories in 2015, rising from 88 geographies in 1990. In terms of birth cohorts, male smoking prevalence followed similar age patterns across levels of SDI, whereas much more heterogeneity was found in age patterns for female smokers by level of development. While smoking prevalence and risk-deleted DALY rates mostly decreased by sex and SDI quintile, population growth, population ageing, or a combination of both, drove rises in overall smoking-attributable DALYs in low-SDI to middle-SDI geographies between 2005 and 2015. Interpretation The pace of progress in reducing smoking prevalence has been heterogeneous across geographies, development status, and sex, and as highlighted by more recent trends, maintaining past rates of decline should not be taken for granted, especially in women and in low-SDI to middle-SDI countries. Beyond the effect of the tobacco industry and societal mores, a crucial challenge facing tobacco control initiatives is that demographic forces are poised to heighten smoking's global toll, unless progress in preventing initiation and promoting cessation can be substantially accelerated. Greater success in tobacco control is possible but requires effective, comprehensive, and adequately implemented and enforced policies, which might in turn require global and national levels of political commitment beyond what has been achieved during the past 25 years.
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| 11. |
- Afshin, Ashkan, et al.
(författare)
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Health effects of dietary risks in 195 countries, 1990-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2019
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 393:10184, s. 1958-1972
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Suboptimal diet is an important preventable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, its impact on the burden of NCDs has not been systematically evaluated. This study aimed to evaluate the consumption of major foods and nutrients across 195 countries and to quantify the impact of their suboptimal intake on NCD mortality and morbidity.Methods: By use of a comparative risk assessment approach, we estimated the proportion of disease-specific burden attributable to each dietary risk factor (also referred to as population attributable fraction) among adults aged 25 years or older. The main inputs to this analysis included the intake of each dietary factor, the effect size of the dietary factor on disease endpoint, and the level of intake associated with the lowest risk of mortality. Then, by use of diseasespecific population attributable fractions, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), we calculated the number of deaths and DALYs attributable to diet for each disease outcome.Findings: In 2017, 11 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 10-12) deaths and 255 million (234-274) DALYs were attributable to dietary risk factors. High intake of sodium (3 million [1-5] deaths and 70 million [34-118] DALYs), low intake of whole grains (3 million [2-4] deaths and 82 million [59-109] DALYs), and low intake of fruits (2 million [1-4] deaths and 65 million [41-92] DALYs) were the leading dietary risk factors for deaths and DALYs globally and in many countries. Dietary data were from mixed sources and were not available for all countries, increasing the statistical uncertainty of our estimates.Interpretation: This study provides a comprehensive picture of the potential impact of suboptimal diet on NCD mortality and morbidity, highlighting the need for improving diet across nations. Our findings will inform implementation of evidence-based dietary interventions and provide a platform for evaluation of their impact on human health annually.
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| 12. |
- Bhardwaj, Anshuman, et al.
(författare)
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A lake detection algorithm (LDA) using Landsat 8 data : A comparative approach in glacial environment
- 2015
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Ingår i: International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation. - : Elsevier BV. - 1569-8432 .- 1872-826X. ; 38, s. 150-163
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Glacial lakes show a wide range of turbidity. Owing to this, the normalized difference water indices (NDWIs) as proposed by many researchers, do not give appropriate results in case of glacial lakes. In addition, the sub-pixel proportion of water and use of different optical band combinations are also reported to produce varying results. In the wake of the changing climate and increasing GLOFs (glacial lake outburst floods), there is a need to utilize wide optical and thermal capabilities of Landsat 8 data for the automated detection of glacial lakes. In the present study, the optical and thermal bandwidths of Landsat 8 data were explored along with the terrain slope parameter derived from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer Global Digital Elevation Model Version2 (ASTER GDEM V2), for detecting and mapping glacial lakes. The validation of the algorithm was performed using manually digitized and subsequently field corrected lake boundaries. The pre-existing NDWIs were also evaluated to determine the supremacy and the stability of the proposed algorithm for glacial lake detection. Two new parameters, LDI (lake detection index) and LF (lake fraction) were proposed to comment on the performances of the indices. The lake detection algorithm (LDA) performed best in case of both, mixed lake pixels and pure lake pixels with no false detections (LDI = 0.98) and very less areal underestimation (LF= 0.73). The coefficient of determination (R-2) between areal extents of lake pixels, extracted using the LDA and the actual lake area, was very high (0.99). With understanding of the terrain conditions and slight threshold adjustments, this work can be replicated for any mountainous region of the world.
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| 13. |
- Griswold, Max G., et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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| 14. |
- Kamranvar, Siamak A., et al.
(författare)
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Integrin signaling via FAK-Src controls cytokinetic abscission by decelerating PLK1 degradation and subsequent recruitment of CEP55 at the midbody
- 2016
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Ingår i: Oncotarget. - : Impact Journals, LLC. - 1949-2553. ; 7:21, s. 30820-30830
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Adhesion to extracellular matrix is required for cell cycle progression through the G1 phase and for the completion of cytokinesis in normal adherent cells. Cancer cells acquire the ability to proliferate anchorage-independently, a characteristic feature of malignantly transformed cells. However, the molecular mechanisms underlying this escape of the normal control mechanisms remain unclear. The current study aimed to identify adhesion-induced reactions regulating the cytokinesis of non-transformed human fibroblasts. The adhesion-dependent control of cytokinesis was found to occur at a late stage close to the abscission, during which the endosomal sorting complex required for transport (ESCRT) severs the thin intercellular bridge connecting two nascent daughter cells. CEP55, a key protein involved in the abscission process, was localized at the midbody in both adherent and non-adherent fibroblasts, but it was unable to efficiently recruit ALIX, TSG101, and consequently the ESCRT-III subunit CHMP4B was missing in the non-adherent cells. PLK1, a kinase that prevents premature recruitment of CEP55 to the midbody, disappeared from this site more rapidly in the non-adherent cells. A FAK-Src signaling pathway downstream of integrin-mediated cell adhesion was found to decelerate both PLK1 degradation and CEP55 accumulation at the midbody. These data identify the regulation of PLK1 and CEP55 as steps where integrins exert control over the cytokinetic abscission.
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| 15. |
- Kumar, Rajesh, et al.
(författare)
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Development of a Glacio-hydrological Model for Discharge and Mass Balance Reconstruction
- 2016
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Ingår i: Water resources management. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0920-4741 .- 1573-1650. ; 30:10, s. 3475-3492
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The reconstruction of glacio-hydrological records for the data deficient Himalayan catchments is needed in order to study the past and future water availability. The study provides outcomes of a glacio-hydrological model based on the degree-day approach. The model simulates the discharge and mass balance for glacierised Shaune Garang catchment. The degree-day factors for different land covers, used in the model, were estimated using daily stake measurements on Shaune Garang glacier and they were found to be varying between 2.6 ± 0.4 and 9.3 ± 0.3 mm °C−1day−1. The model is validated using observed discharge during ablation season of 2014 with coefficient of determination (R2) 0.90 and root mean square error (RMSE) 1.05 m3 sec−1. The model is used to simulate discharge from 1985 to 2008 and mass balance from 2001 to 2008. The model results show significant contribution of seasonal snow and ice melt in total discharge of the catchment, especially during summer. We observe the maximum discharge in July having maximum contribution from snow and ice melt. The annual melt season discharge shows following a decreasing trend in the simulation period. The reconstructed mass balance shows mass loss of 0.89 m we per year between 2001 and 2008 with slight mass gain during 2000/01 and 2004/05 hydrological years.
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| 16. |
- Kumar, Rajesh, et al.
(författare)
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Dynamics of suspended sediment load with respect to summer discharge and temperatures in Shaune Garang glacierized catchment, Western Himalaya
- 2018
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Ingår i: Acta Geophysica. - : Springer. - 1895-6572 .- 1895-7455. ; 66:5, s. 1109-1120
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The observed and predicted rise in temperature will have deleterious impact on melting of snow and ice and form of precipitation which is already evident in Indian Himalayan Region. The temperature-dependent entities like discharge and sediment load will also vary with the observed and predicted rise posing environmental, social and economic threat in the region. There is little known about sediment load transport in relation to temperature and discharge in glacierized catchments in Himalaya mainly due to the scarcity of ground-based observation. The present study is an attempt to understand the suspended sediment load and transportation in relation to variation in discharge and temperature in the Shaune Garang catchment. The result shows strong dependence of sediment concentration primarily on discharge (R2 = 0.84) and then on temperature (R2 = 0.79). The catchments with similar geological and climate setting were observed to have comparatively close weathering rate. The sediment load was found to be higher in the catchments in eastern and central part of Indian Himalayan Region in comparison with western part due to dominance of Indian Summer Monsoon leading to high discharge. The annual physical weathering rate in Shaune Garang catchment was found to be 411 t km−2 year−1 which has increased from 327 t km−2 year−1 in around three decades due to rise in temperature causing increase in discharge and proportion of debris-covered glacierized area.
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| 17. |
- Kumar, Rajesh, et al.
(författare)
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Hydro-geochemical characteristics of glacial meltwater from Naradu Glacier catchment, Western Himalaya
- 2019
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Ingår i: Environmental Earth Sciences. - : Springer. - 1866-6280 .- 1866-6299. ; 78:24
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The pattern of changing hydro-geochemical characteristics of water in Himalayan rivers is primarily controlled by sediment load from natural sources in higher altitudes and anthropogenic sources such as the burning of fossil fuels for domestic use, vehicular emissions, and wind transported industrial pollutants in the downstream region. The assessment of water quality is critical for the comparison of natural and anthropogenic sources in the downstream areas due to the dependence of the population on the glacial meltwater for freshwater supply. In the present study, we investigate the physical and ionic characteristics of glacial meltwater from Naradu Glacier catchment concerning the dominant weathering process. The freshwater samples were collected during the ablation period of 2016 and 2017 from specified locations. The physical parameters (pH, electrical conductivity, and temperature) were measured in the field while the analyses for concentrations of major cations (Ca2+, Mg2+, K+, Na+) and major anions (Cl−, SO42−, HCO3−, NO3−) were done in the laboratory. The anions (HCO3− > SO42− > Cl− > NO3−) and cations (Ca2+ > Mg2+ > Na+ > K+) concentrations were observed to have similar trends for both of the ablation period. The statistical analysis shows the predominance of geological weathering processes in the catchment as the controlling factor for the variation in concentration of different ionic species. The catchment was found to be rich in rocks with carbonate mineral making the Ca2+ and HCO3− the most dominant ions in the glacial meltwater.
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| 18. |
- Sam, Lydia, et al.
(författare)
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Use of Geospatial Tools to Prioritize Zones of Hydro-Energy Potential in Glaciated Himalayan Terrain
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of the Indian Society of Remote Sensing. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0255-660X .- 0974-3006. ; 44:3, s. 409-420
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sustainable development of the Himalayan region is directly linked to optimal utilization of available renewable resources. There is a need to first select the zones suitable for hydropower sites, and then to focus on them only; as purely field-based surveying of rugged mountainous regions for hydropower generation requires too much of time and effort. We used geospatial tools to identify suitable sites for hydropower generation. A Geographic Information System (GIS)-based tool called Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) was used for computing annual runoff volume using watershed-wise topography and biophysical variables. The zones suitable for hydropower generation were then identified based on calculated hydropower energy using derived runoff volumes and hydraulic head. The model accuracy was checked using well established efficiency criteria: coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.98), RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR), Percent bias (PBIAS) and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). For all these parameters, the model was found to be performing satisfactorily.
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| 19. |
- Shinde, Amar Mohan, et al.
(författare)
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Life cycle analysis based comprehensive environmental performance evaluation of Mumbai Suburban Railway, India
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Cleaner Production. - : Elsevier. - 0959-6526 .- 1879-1786. ; 188, s. 989-1003
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Suburban railway systems are recognized as one of the most promising options to improve the environmental footprint of urban passenger transport in developing countries. In the present study, life cycle assessment has been performed for the Mumbai Suburban Railway with the objective of developing a comprehensive methodology for environmental evaluation of suburban railway projects in terms of energy consumption and relevant impact categories. The system boundary comprises the construction and maintenance of railway infrastructure such as tracks, power supply installations, foot over bridges and platforms, in addition to manufacturing, maintenance and operation phase of Electric Multiple Unit (EMU). The functional unit identified for this study is per Passenger Kilometer Travelled within a service lifetime of EMU of 25 years. The results show that operation phase is the main contributor (87-94%) to the total environmental impact, whereas the contribution of remaining life cycle phases is relatively insignificant (6-13%). It is mainly due to electricity production from non-renewable sources in India. The material and energy intensive rails entail the major contribution to construction phase (24-57%) and maintenance phase (46-71%), whereas the contribution from fastenings, ballast and on-site energy consumption is less significant. The increasing utilization of renewable energy, lightweighting of coach bodies, enhancing the service life and reuse potential of rails and fastenings and enhancing train occupancy are fundamental to accomplish suburban railways as a clean transportation mode. This comprehensive study can serve as a preeminent support and benchmark for the future environmental performance assessments of public transportation in India. Eventually, decision makers and regional transport planners can more effectively craft the strategic decisions and priorities of measures for providing sustainable mobility options.
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| 20. |
- Singh, Shaktiman, et al.
(författare)
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Changing climate and glacio-hydrology: a case study of Shaune Garang basin, Himachal Pradesh
- 2018
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Ingår i: International Journal of Hydrology Science and Technology. - : InderScience Publishers. - 2042-7808 .- 2042-7816. ; 8:3, s. 258-272
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The rise in temperature is already evident in Himalaya with rate of increase varying seasonally and spatially. Changes in precipitation are also evident with no clear trend. Several studies in different parts of Himalayas suggest that the glaciers are retreating in general with few exceptions as response to changes in temperature and precipitation. The stream flow in river basins in Indian Himalayan region (IHR) is already showing changes in studies undertaken in the last few decades. Use of glacio-hydrological models gives opportunity to estimate stream flow in glaciated river basins and understand the changes. The present study deals with estimation of discharge in Shaune Garang Basin, Himachal Pradesh using a glacio-hydrological model based on degree day factors. The model was used to estimate long term average of melt season discharge (1985-2007) in the basin. The modelled discharge shows good correlation with measured discharge for simulation period except for first year of comparison.
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| 21. |
- Singh, Shaktiman, et al.
(författare)
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Changing climate and glacio-hydrology in Indian Himalayan Region : a review
- 2016
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Ingår i: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. - : Wiley. - 1757-7780 .- 1757-7799. ; 7:3, s. 393-410
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study presents a comprehensive review of the published literature on the evidences of a changing climate in the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) and its impacts on the glacio-hydrology of the region. The IHR serves as an important source of fresh water for the densely populated areas downstream. It is evident from the available studies that temperature is significantly increasing in all parts of the IHR, whereas precipitation is not indicative of any particular spatiotemporal trend. Glacio-hydrological proxies for changing climate, such as, terminus and areal changes of the glaciers, glacier mass balance, and streamflow in downstream areas, highlight changes more evidently in recent decades. On an average, studies have predicted an increase in temperature and precipitation in the region, along with increase in streamflow of major rivers. Such trends are already apparent in some sub-basins of the western IHR. The region is particularly vulnerable to changing climate as it is highly dependent on snow and glacier melt run-off to meet its freshwater demands. We present a systematic review of key papers dealing with changing temperature, precipitation, glaciers, and streamflow in the IHR. We discuss these interdisciplinary themes in relation to each other, in order to establish the present and future impacts of climatic, glaciological, and hydrological changes in the region.
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| 22. |
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3-D band-stop FSS for X-band and Ku-band
- 2017
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Ingår i: 2017 Progress In Electromagnetics Research Symposium - Fall (PIERS - FALL). - : Electromagnetics Academy. - 9781538612118 - 9781538612125 ; , s. 671-675
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- A 3-D Frequency Selective Surface (FSS) with band-stop characteristics for X-band and Ku-band is proposed. A 3-D FSS unit cell is constructed by analyzing two 2-D FSS's. The size of the 3-D FSS unit cell is 5 mm × 5 mm wherein two layers of FR4 substrate with respective widths of 0.762 mm and 0.5 mm are used. Dual stop bands are obtained with this FSS unit cell around 10 GHz and 17.4 GHz; where a wide stop-band of 5.2 GHz is obtained. The parametric study carried out on the proposed design in terms change in nature of substrate, alternate use of different substrates and variation in angle of incidence. The 3-D FSS shows its band rejection property X-band and Ku-band respectively. Ansoft HFSS commercial EM solver software is used to carry out the simulation work.
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| 23. |
- Afshin, Ashkan, et al.
(författare)
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Health Effects of Overweight and Obesity in 195 Countries over 25 Years
- 2017
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Ingår i: New England Journal of Medicine. - : MASSACHUSETTS MEDICAL SOC. - 0028-4793 .- 1533-4406. ; 377:1, s. 13-27
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND Although the rising pandemic of obesity has received major attention in many countries, the effects of this attention on trends and the disease burden of obesity remain uncertain. METHODS We analyzed data from 68.5 million persons to assess the trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among children and adults between 1980 and 2015. Using the Global Burden of Disease study data and methods, we also quantified the burden of disease related to high body-mass index (BMI), according to age, sex, cause, and BMI in 195 countries between 1990 and 2015. RESULTS In 2015, a total of 107.7 million children and 603.7 million adults were obese. Since 1980, the prevalence of obesity has doubled in more than 70 countries and has continuously increased in most other countries. Although the prevalence of obesity among children has been lower than that among adults, the rate of increase in childhood obesity in many countries has been greater than the rate of increase in adult obesity. High BMI accounted for 4.0 million deaths globally, nearly 40% of which occurred in persons who were not obese. More than two thirds of deaths related to high BMI were due to cardiovascular disease. The disease burden related to high BMI has increased since 1990; however, the rate of this increase has been attenuated owing to decreases in underlying rates of death from cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS The rapid increase in the prevalence and disease burden of elevated BMI highlights the need for continued focus on surveillance of BMI and identification, implementation, and evaluation of evidence-based interventions to address this problem.
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| 24. |
- Bachchan, Rajesh Kumar, et al.
(författare)
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Gaia reference frame amid quasar variability and proper motion patterns in the data
- 2016
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Ingår i: Astronomy & Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; , s. 1-12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context. Gaia’s very accurate astrometric measurements will allow the optical realisation of the International Celestial Reference System to be improved by a few orders of magnitude. Several sets of quasars are used to define a kinematically stable non-rotating reference frame with the barycentre of the solar system as its origin. Gaia will also observe a large number of galaxies. Although they are not point-like, it may be possible to determine accurate positions and proper motions for some of their compact bright features. Aims. The optical stability of the quasars is critical, and we investigate how accurately the reference frame can be recovered. Various proper motion patterns are also present in the data, the best known is caused by the acceleration of the solar system barycentre, presumably, towards the Galactic centre. We review some other less well-known effects that are not part of standard astrometric models.Methods. We modelled quasars and galaxies using realistic sky distributions, magnitudes, and redshifts. Position variability was introduced using a Markov chain model. The reference frame was determined using the algorithm developed for the Gaia mission, which also determines the acceleration of the solar system. We also tested a method for measuring the velocity of the solar system barycentre in a cosmological frame.Results. We simulated the recovery of the reference frame and the acceleration of the solar system and conclude that they are not significantly disturbed by quasar variability, which is statistically averaged. However, the effect of a non-uniform sky distribution of the quasars can result in a correlation between the parameters describing the spin components of the reference frame and the acceleration components, which degrades the solution. Our results suggest that an attempt should be made to astrometrically determine the redshift- dependent apparent drift of galaxies that is due to our velocity relative to the cosmic microwave background, which in principle could allow determining the Hubble parameter.
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| 25. |
- Bachchan, Rajesh Kumar
(författare)
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The Gaia reference frame amid quasar variability and proper motion patterns in the data
- 2015
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The astrometric satellite Gaia was launched in December, 2013. It will observe nearly one billion stars in the Milky Way and beyond along with many extragalactic objects such as quasars and galaxies. The analysis of quasar data will provide the optical counterpart of the International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF). Also, the analysis of data for stars in our Galaxy provide a revolution in our understanding of Galactic dynamics, formation and evolution. The ICRF with its origin at the barycentre of the Solar System is based on distant quasars assumed to be static on the celestial sphere. With the expectation of a very large number of quasars from Gaia measurements, we study the effect of photocentric variability of quasars on the optical stability of the reference frame. The photocentric variability is modelled using a Markov chain model. In addition, there are many astrophysical and cosmological sources of proper motion. We review these effects of which the most significant are the secular aberration drift due to the acceleration of the Solar System, and the motion of the Sun relative to the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). Based on simulated data, the reference frame along with the Solar System acceleration is determined using an algorithm developed for the Gaia mission. We conclude that the photocentric variability of quasars does not have a very significant impact on the recovery of the reference frame. However, we notice a correlation between the frame parameters and the acceleration due to the inhomogeneous all-sky distribution of quasars. We also try to astrometrically determine our velocity relative to the CMB based on a cosmological model. Alternatively, if we assume that our velocity relative to the CMB is known from other missions, such as Planck, we can in principle measure the Hubble constant by astrometric means. This measurement is however very difficult and will require accurate centroiding on extended objects.
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