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- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2014
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 384:9947, s. 957-979
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.
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- van den Berg-Emons, R. J., et al.
(författare)
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Validation of the Physical Activity Scale for individuals with physical disabilities
- 2011
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Ingår i: Archives of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. - : Elsevier BV. - 0003-9993 .- 1532-821X. ; 92:6, s. 923-8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: To determine the criterion validity of the Physical Activity Scale for Individuals With Physical Disabilities (PASIPD) by means of daily physical activity levels measured by using a validated accelerometry-based activity monitor in a large group of persons with a physical disability. DESIGN: Cross-sectional. SETTING: Participants' home environment. PARTICIPANTS: Ambulatory and nonambulatory persons with cerebral palsy, meningomyelocele, or spinal cord injury (N=124). INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Self-reported physical activity level measured by using the PASIPD, a 2-day recall questionnaire, was correlated to objectively measured physical activity level measured by using a validated accelerometry-based activity monitor. RESULTS: Significant Spearman correlation coefficients between the PASIPD and activity monitor outcome measures ranged from .22 to .37. The PASIPD overestimated the duration of physical activity measured by using the activity monitor (mean +/- SD, 3.9+/-2.9 vs 1.5+/-0.9h/d; P<.01). Significant correlation (rho=-.74; P<.01) was found between average number of hours of physical activity per day measured by using the 2 methods and difference in hours between methods. This indicates larger overestimation for persons with higher activity levels. CONCLUSIONS: The PASIPD correlated poorly with objective measurements using an accelerometry-based activity monitor in people with a physical disability. However, similar low correlations between objective and subjective activity measurements have been found in the general population. Users of the PASIPD should be cautious about overestimating physical activity levels.
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- Beelen, Rob, et al.
(författare)
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Development of NO2 and NOx land use regression models for estimating air pollution exposure in 36 study areas in Europe : the ESCAPE project
- 2013
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Environment. - : Elsevier. - 1352-2310 .- 1873-2844. ; 72, s. 10-23
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Estimating within-city variability in air pollution concentrations is important. Land use regression (LUR) models are able to explain such small-scale within-city variations. Transparency in LUR model development methods is important to facilitate comparison of methods between different studies. We therefore developed LUR models in a standardized way in 36 study areas in Europe for the ESCAPE (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects) project.Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) were measured with Ogawa passive samplers at 40 or 80 sites in each of the 36 study areas. The spatial variation in each area was explained by LUR modeling. Centrally and locally available Geographic Information System (GIS) variables were used as potential predictors. A leave-one out cross-validation procedure was used to evaluate the model performance.There was substantial contrast in annual average NO2 and NOx concentrations within the study areas. The model explained variances (R2) of the LUR models ranged from 55% to 92% (median 82%) for NO2 and from 49% to 91% (median 78%) for NOx. For most areas the cross-validation R2 was less than 10% lower than the model R2. Small-scale traffic and population/household density were the most common predictors. The magnitude of the explained variance depended on the contrast in measured concentrations as well as availability of GIS predictors, especially traffic intensity data were important. In an additional evaluation, models in which local traffic intensity was not offered had 10% lower R2 compared to models in the same areas in which these variables were offered.Within the ESCAPE project it was possible to develop LUR models that explained a large fraction of the spatial variance in measured annual average NO2 and NOx concentrations. These LUR models are being used to estimate outdoor concentrations at the home addresses of participants in over 30 cohort studies.
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- Fuks, Kateryna B., et al.
(författare)
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Arterial blood pressure and long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution : an analysis in the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE)
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Health Perspectives. - : National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS). - 0091-6765 .- 1552-9924. ; 122:9, s. 896-905
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Long-term exposure to air pollution is hypothesized to elevate arterial blood pressure (BP). The existing evidence is scarce and country-specific. OBJECTIVES: We investigated the cross-sectional association of long-term traffic-related air pollution with BP and prevalent hypertension in European populations. METHODS: Fifteen population-based cohorts, participating in the European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE), were analysed. Residential exposure to particulate matter and nitrogen oxides was modelled with land use regression using a uniform protocol. Traffic exposure was assessed with traffic indicator variables. We analysed systolic and diastolic BP in participants medicated and non-medicated with BP lowering medication (BPLM) separately, adjusting for personal and area-level risk factors and environmental noise. Prevalent hypertension was defined as ≥ 140 mmHg systolic, or ≥ 90 mmHg diastolic BP, or intake of BPLM. We combined cohort-specific results using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: In the main meta-analysis of 113,926 participants, traffic load on major roads within 100 m of the residence was associated with increased systolic and diastolic BP in non-medicated participants (0.35 mmHg [95% CI: 0.02-0.68] and 0.22 mmHg [95% CI: 0.04-0.40] per 4,000,000 vehicles × m/day, respectively). The estimated odds ratio for prevalent hypertension was 1.05 [95% CI: 0.99-1.11] per 4,000,000 vehicles × m/day. Modelled air pollutants and BP were not clearly associated. CONCLUSIONS: In this first comprehensive meta-analysis of European population-based cohorts we observed a weak positive association of high residential traffic exposure with BP in non-medicated participants, and an elevated OR for prevalent hypertension. The relationship of modelled air pollutants with BP was inconsistent.
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- Wang, Meng, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term exposure to elemental constituents of particulate matter and cardiovascular mortality in 19 European cohorts : Results from the ESCAPE and TRANSPHORM projects
- 2014
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Ingår i: Environment International. - : Elsevier BV. - 0160-4120 .- 1873-6750. ; 66, s. 97-106
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Associations between long-term exposure to ambient particulate matter (PM) and cardiovascular (CVD) mortality have been widely recognized. However, health effects of long-term exposure to constituents of PM on total CVD mortality have been explored in a single study only. Aims: The aim of this study was to examine the association of PM composition with cardiovascular mortality. Methods: We used data from 19 European ongoing cohorts within the framework of the ESCAPE (European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects) and TRANSPHORM (Transport related Air Pollution and Health impacts Integrated Methodologies for Assessing Particulate Matter) projects. Residential annual average exposure to elemental constituents within particle matter smaller than 2.5 and 10 pm (PM2.5 and PM10) was estimated using Land Use Regression models. Eight elements representing major sources were selected a priori (copper, iron, potassium, nickel, sulfur, silicon, vanadium and zinc). Cohort-specific analyses were conducted using Cox proportional hazards models with a standardized protocol. Random-effects metaanalysis was used to calculate combined effect estimates. Results: The total population consisted of 322,291 participants, with 9545 CVD deaths. We found no statistically significant associations between any of the elemental constituents in PM2.5 or PM10 and CVD mortality in the pooled analysis. Most of the hazard ratios (HRs) were close to unity, e.g. for PM10 Fe the combined HR was 0.96 (0.84-1.09). Elevated combined HRs were found for PM2.5 Si (1.17, 95% Cl: 0.93-1.47), and S in PM2.5 (1.08,95% Cl: 0.95-1.22) and PM10 (1.09,95% Cl: 0.90-132). Conclusion: In a joint analysis of 19 European cohorts, we found no statistically significant association between long-term exposure to 8 elemental constituents of particles and total cardiovascular mortality.
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